Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

EW Stats:

Age: 5-7 = 100% 

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 97%

Runs: 2-6 = 97% 

LTO: 1-2 = 92%

Days: 21+ = 95%

Hurdle wins: 1-4 = 100%

Left handed win: = 91%

Grade LTO: 1 - listed = 88%

OR: S.D = 139+ Mean = 146+

RPR: S.D = 142+ Mean = 149+

RPR Race: S.D. = 146+ Mean = 152+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR 5-7 IRE/GB

EW Analysis:

Some strong stats appearing in the Ballymore which helps narrow down the field considerably. Gaelic Warrior (11/2) has a strong profile and providing his tendency to jump to the right doesn't hinder him too much, he should go well. Champ Kiely (9/1) also has a good looking profile and is proven over the trip which is another positive, whether he will be quite good enough remains to be seen but should run his race. Finally, Inthepocket (16/1) has a similar stats profile to the other two horses mentioned and is worth considering EW.

Win Stats:

Age: 5-7 = 100% 5-6 = 95%

Bred: IRE, FR = 95%

Runs: 2-6 = 95% 2-4 = 85%

Days: 21+ = 95%

LTO: 1-2 = 95%

Hurdle wins: 2-3 = 91%

Left handed win: = 91%

OR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 148+

RPR: S.D = 145+ Mean = 151+

RPR Race: S.D. 149+ Mean 155+

Significant Stats:

RPR 149+ high 152+

Bred IRE or FR

Positive correlation between position, Bred IRE/FR and RPR (149+) 

Winner analysis:

The strongest sig stat is an RPR of 149+ and Hermes Allen (3/1), Gaelic Warrior, Champ Kiely, and Inthepocket all meet it. Hermes Allen has the best overall general profile and needs to be taken seriously after posting an impressive RPR of 154 last time out, while Gaelic Warrior posted 155 last time, both meeting the high sig stat of 152+. Having backed GW ante post at bigger prices I'll look to add one of the others mentioned on the day.

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