Brown Advisory Novices' Chase

EW Stats:

Age: 6-8 = 93%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100%

Runs: 2-5 = 97%

LTO: 1-3 = 90%

Grade: 1-3 = 86%

Days: 20+ = 100%

Chase wins: 1-3 = 91%

OR: S.D = 142+ Mean = 149+

HOR: S.D. = 133+ Mean = 144+

Season RPR: S.D = 151+ Mean = 157+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 IRE/GB

EW Analysis:

Some solid stats which stand up well to help narrow down the field. The Real Whacker (9/2) and the mare, Galia Des Liteaux (10/1) come out well and I've backed the mare NRNB with the ground looking likely to be on the softer side now. 

 Win Stats:

Age: 5-8 = 100% 7-8 = 90%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE = 80%

Runs: 2-5 = 100% 3-5 = 90%

LTO: 1-2 = 90%

Grade: 1-listed = 100%

Days: 20+ = 100% 20-59 = 85%

Grade LTO: 1-2 = 91%

Chase wins: 1-4 = 91%

OR: S.D = 145+ Mean = 151+

RPR: S.D = 153+ Mean = 159+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 7-8 IRE/GB

Significant Stats:

No significant stats

Winner analysis:

Having backed Gerri Colombe for any race at the start of the season I'm going into this in a good position. GC (13/8) has the best general profile and is clearly the one to beat. Next best are the two mentioned in the EW analysis, so having backed the mare, I think I'm done in this race.

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