David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle

EW Stats:

Age: 6-9 – 91%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100%

Runs: 0-5 = 94%

LTO: 1-3 = 86%

Days: 20+ = 92%

Distance: 20/21f = 89%

Grade: 1-listed = 86%

OR: S.D = 137+ Mean = 147+

RPR: S.D = 139+ Mean = 149+

EW Analysis:

A race to confirm OR’s when decs are out.

If last years winner, Marie's Rock (10/3) turns up here rather than the stayers then EW bets may look different. Love Envoi (15/2) and Epatante (4/1) have excellent profiles. I've backed Epatante ante post. 

Win Stats:

Age: 5-9 = 92%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100%

Runs: 0-5 = 100%

Days: 20+ = 92%

LTO: 1-3 = 100% 1st = 83%

Grade: 1-listed = 100%

Distance: 20/21f = 100%

OR: S.D = 145+ Mean = 153+

RPR: S.D = 147+ Mean = 154+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-9 FR 6-9 IRE/GB

Significant Stats:

OR 143+ 

RPR 145+ 

Grade 1-3

Positive correlation between position, OR (153+), RPR (154+), runs 0-5

Winner analysis:

This looks a cracking race, especially if MR turns up here as well. Epatante has the best profile and meets all three sig stats and the correlation, and I wouldn't put anyone off backing her at 4/1 EW. Honeysuckle (5/2) would bring the house down if she wins on what is potentially her last ever run and she also meets the sig stats and the correlation. MR also meets the key stats and correlation and would be hard to beat if she runs. Brandy Love (6/1) has a few lbs to find on OR and RPRs, as do Echoes in Rain (7/1) and Love Envoi, however it is worth noting that the last 8 winners of this race have been aged 5 - 7 (6 winners aged 7).  

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Ultima Handicap Chase

EW Stats: Age: 6-9 – 94% 7-9 = 85% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 2-5 = 87% Distance: 24f+ = 78% Days: 20+ = 91% OR: 129-155 S.D 138-149 Weight: S.D 10-6 – 11-6 Best RPR Race 142+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-9 FR 7-9 IRE/GB EW Analysis : There will be plenty of bookies going extra places so shop around. Sequestered (20/1), Famous Bridge (18/1), Malina Girl(12/1) and The Changing Man (6/1) have lovely EW profiles.  Win Stats: Age: 7-11 = 94% 7-9 = 83% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE = 89% Runs: 2-5 = 94% LTO: 1-5 = 89% Distance: 24f+ = 89% OR: 129-155 S.D 137-149 Weight: S.D = 10-5 – 11-6 RPR Race:  142+  Significant Stats: LTO 1-5 Days 0-59 Winner analysis: The four horses above also meet the two sig stats and the win stats. Whistle Stop Tour (9/1) and Katate Dori (7/1) also meet the two sig stats and have good looking win profiles. Famous Bridge ran well for a long way in this race last year before tiring on the heavy going and looks a decent EW shout. The Irish have a terrib...
Read more

Michael O'Sullivan Supreme Novices' Hurdle

EW Stats: Age: 5-6 = 92% Bred: IRE, FR = 86% Runs: 2-4 = 92% Hurdle wins: 1-3 = 92% Won on a left-handed track: = 78% LTO: 1-2 = 88% Days: 20+ = 94% OR: S.D = 142+ Mean = 148+ Best RPR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 148+ S.P: Mean 9s and under EW Analysis : Romeo Coolio (5/1) has the best profile for EW purposes. Others which have strong EW profiles include Salvator Mundi (8/1), Tripoli Flyer (20/1) and Karbau (20/1). The latter could be anything and at 20/1 at enhanced places could tempt people. Win Stats: Age: 5-6 = 94% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Days: 20+ = 88% Runs: 2-4 = 94% LTO: 1-2 = 94% Grade: 1-listed = 94% 1-2 = 81% Hurdle wins: 2-3 = 88% Won left-handed: = 82% OR: S.D = 144+ Mean = 149+ RPR: S.D = 145+ Mean = 149+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR/GB 6-7 IRE SP Mean: = 7's and under Significant Stats: RPR 145+ high sig 1510 SP 12s and under Positive correlation between Pos - RPR (145) and SP (7's under) Winner analysis: The yea...
Read more

Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

EW Stats: Bred: IRE, FR, GB, GER = 97% Season Runs: 2-4 = 81% Days: 21+ = 94% Hurdle wins: 0-2 = 97% 1-2 = 83% LTO: 1-6 = 89% OR: 122-139 S.D 127-136 Weight: S.D = 10-10 – 11-7 Best RPR:  S.D. 114+ EW Analysis: Puturhandstogether (10/1), Holy See (25/1), Q Hill (20/1) and Teriferma (20/1) have excellent EW profiles. Win Stats: Bred: IRE, FR, GER = 100% Distance: = 91% Runs: 1-5 = 100%  Days: 21+ = 90% 21-60 = 82% Hurdle wins: 1-2 = 91% OR: 125-139 S.D 127-137 Weight: S.D = 10-9 – 11-7 Best SRPR:  120-140 Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Those mentioned above and Total Look (6/1) have the best win profiles. I have just backed Puturhandstogether and will look at the others in more detail on the day.
Read more