Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase

EW Stats:

Age: 7-9 = 97%

Bred: IRE, FR = 87%

Runs: 1-4 = 100%   

Distance: 24f+ = 97%

Days: 21+ = 100%

Grade LTO: 1-2 = 90%

Festival Experience: = 97%

OR: S.D = 162+ Mean = 168+

Best RPR: S.D = 166+ Mean = 172+

Season RPR: S.D. = 164+ Mean = 171

EW Analysis:

The Jukebox Man (4/1) and Gaelic Warrior (4/1) have the best profiles. I have backed both EW a few weeks ago.

Win Stats:

Age: 7-9 = 100%

Bred: IRE, FR = 80%

Runs: 1-4 = 100%

LTO: 1-4 = 100%

Days: 40+ = 90%

Grade: 1 = 90%

Grade LTO: 1-2 = 80%

Festival Experience: = 100%

OR: S.D = 163+ Mean = 170+

Best RPR: S.D = 168+ Mean = 175+

Season RPR: S.D = 167+ Mean 174+

Significant Stats:

Grade 1

OR 166+

BRPR 168+

Winner analysis:

Plenty of horses tick the sig‑stat boxes, but once you layer in the general stats, you’re really down to the two already mentioned plus Grey Dawning (12/1). I’m happy with the pair I’ve gone for. The only niggle is last year’s winner—if he comes back to that level, he’ll take plenty of beating.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Plate Handicap Chase

Win Stats: Age: 6-10 = 93% Bred: IRE, FR, = 93% Runs: 1-5 = 93% Distance: = 100% Days: 20+ = 93% Season: Novice/2 nd  = 80% OR: 136-149 S.D 138-145 Weight: 10-7 – 11-2 Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-7 FR 7-10 Other Significant Stats: Distance Winner analysis: This isn’t a strong stats race, and no horse has a perfect profile. The ones that score best on the general stats and also hit the key stat are O’Moore Park (20/1), Madara (4/1), and Booster Bob (20/1).
Read more

Supreme Novices' Hurdle

EW Stats: Age: 5-6 = 91% Bred: IRE, FR = 85% Runs: 2-4 = 92% Hurdle wins: 1-3 = 91% Won on a left-handed track: = 80% LTO: 1-2 = 89% 1st = 76% Grade: 1 - listed = 78% Days: 20+ = 93% OR: S.D = 142+ Mean = 148+ Best RPR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 147+ S.P: Mean 9s and under EW Analysis : Talk The Talk (6/1) possesses a very strong each-way statistical profile. If connections opt for this race rather than the Turners, he should be very competitive. Another with a favourable each-way profile is Sober Glory (14/1), who produced an impressive RPR on his latest start, albeit achieved in heavy ground conditions. Win Stats: Age: 5-6 = 94% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Days: 20+ = 89% Runs: 2-4 = 94% LTO: 1-2 = 94% 1st = 83% Grade: 1-listed = 94% 1-2 = 82% Hurdle wins: 2-3 = 89% Won left-handed: = 83% OR: S.D = 144+ Mean = 149+ RPR: S.D = 145+ Mean = 150+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR/GB 6-7 IRE SP Mean: = 7's and under Significant St...
Read more

Royal Ascot Day 1

Narrowing the fields using the sig stats and general trends: 2:30 - 3 sig stats and Rosallion (9/4), Lead Artist (5/1) and Notable Speech (5/1) meet all three. 3:05 - 1 sig stat. Power Blue (18/1), Andab (15/2), Gstaad (5/1), Postmodern (11/2), Military Code (6/1), Warsaw (9/1), Gavoo (22/1) and Tricky Tel (50/1) meet it.  3:40 - 3 sig stats. Asfoora (4/1), Mgheera (9/1), and West Acre (16/1) meet all three.  4:20 - 2 sig stats. Field Of Gold (4/5) and Ruling Court (7/2) meet both.  5:00 - 1 sig stat. Manxman (9/1), A L Grande (11/1), Nurburgring (12/1), Ascending (22/1), Saturn (28/1), and Comfort Zone (28/1) meet it and all of the general stats.  5:35 - 1 sig stat. Haunted Dream (12/1), Kings Gambit (8/1) and Ambiente Friendly (22/1) meet it and the general stats.
Read more