Ultima Handicap Chase

EW Stats:

Age: 7-9 = 86%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100%

Runs: 2-5 = 94%

Distance: 24f+ = 89%

Days: 20+ = 92%

OR: 127-155 S.D 139-151

Weight: S.D 10-8 – 11-9

Best RPR vs OR: S.D  2+ Mean 6+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-7 FR 7-9 IRE/GB

EW Analysis:

Konfusion (16/1), Search For Glory (40/1), Imperial Saint (16/1), Hyland (16/1), Myretown (10/1), and The Short Go (20/1) have strong EW profiles.

Win Stats:

Age: 7-9 = 83%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE = 92%

Runs: 2-5 = 100%

LTO: 1-6 = 92%

Distance: 24f+ = 100%

OR: 127-155 S.D 137-151

Weight: S.D = 10-7 – 11-9

RPR Race:  145+

BRPR vs OR: S.D 5+ Mean 8+ 

Significant Stats:

BRPR vs OR. 5+ high 8+

Winner analysis:

I have introduced a new stat that I was playing around with, and what it is, is a horses best RPR vs current OR. Ideally you are looking for horses who has at least a BRPR 5lb higher than current OR, or to narrow the field down further, 8lb above current OR.

A number of horses meet the sig stat, however when you apply the high sig stat there is a shortlist of Jagwar (4/1), Konfusion, Hyland (12/1), and Myretown. Jagwar isn’t for me at the price and the fact he is unproven over the trip.


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