Significant Horse Racing Stats

Win Stats: Age: 4-5 = 95% Days: 20+ = 90% LTO: 1-3 = 85% Distance: 10f – 12f = 100% 10f = 85% Runs: 1-3 = 90% Group: 1-3 = 100% OR: S.D 117+ Mean 121+ Significant Stats: OR 117+ High 122+ Winner analysis: Four horses meet the OR stat and it’s those four I will focus on. Last years winner, Lord North (9/4) has the best general profile and meets the high stat as well and needs to be on the shortlist. My only minor concern would be if the ground really firmed up, other than that he looks solid. Love (13/8) has been backed over the last week and she boasts the strongest form in the field, she also gets the sex allowance which makes her the highest rated horse in the field. Two general negatives against her is the lack of a recent run and that she has never won over 10f, albeit she has never tried. Armory (7/2) won easily at Chester LTO, however I’m not convinced that form is strong, he does have a good profile though. Lastly, Audarya (16/1) has an OR of 117, but just ...

Win Stats: Age: 4-5 = 94% Days: 0-59 = 88% Bred: GB, IRE = 100% LTO: 1-3 = 88% Distance: 7f – 10f = 100% Runs: 0-2 = 88% Group: 1 – Listed = 94% OR: S.D 105+ Mean 110+ Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: The two horses at the head of the market, Lady Bowthorpe (2/1) and Queen Power (11/2) have the best profiles and there is not much between them either based on their form at Newmarket earlier in the season. Wouldn’t put anyone off backing either one of them.

Win Stats: Days: 0-59 = 84% Bred: GB, IRE = 89% LTO: 1-3 = 84% Distance: 8f+ = 100% Runs: 1-6 = 89% OR: S.D 95+ Mean 102+ Significant Stats: OR 102+ Winner analysis: This significant stat has proved pretty reliable in the past to help narrow down the field. Wordsworth (11/4) meets it and has the best general profile and providing he stays I’d expect a big run. His trainer has an excellent record in the race winning 5 of the last 11 renewals, usually with his first string. The other horses to meet the significant stat are Taipan (9/1), Ruling (10/1), Arturo Toscanini (12/1) and Recovery Run (25/1). I don’t think there is much between the Irish horses and all should run well.

Win Stats: Days: 0-59 = 100% Bred: GB, IRE, USA = 100% LTO: 1st = 90% Distance: = 90% Runs: 1-3 = 90% Best RPR: S.D 86+ Mean 93+ Sire Index: 6.1 – 9.8 S.D 6.4 – 8.5 Foaled: Jan – Apr = 100% Significant Stats: Foaled Jan – Apr LTO 1 st Best RPR 88+ High 92+ Winner analysis: Three strong significant stats to focus on and those that meet all three, include Twilight Gleaming (5/2), Yet (12/1), Nymphadora (12/1) and Beautiful Sunshine (22/1). The American horse is sure to be up with the pace and from her high draw I can see her going close. Yet looks like she will enjoy the stiff Ascot track and rates a solid EW bet, whilst Nymphadora has already shown a high level of form after winning a listed contest at York, the form of which seems to have some substance to it. Lastly, Beautiful Sunshine has progressed well since her debut run and her trainer has an excellent 2 year old record so far this season.      

Win Stats: Age: 4-8 = 95% Days: 0-59 = 90% Bred: GB, IRE = 95% LTO: 1-4 = 81% Distance: 12f-24f = 100% Runs: 1-6 = 100% OR: S.D = 82 – 96 Weight: S.D = 8-12 – 9-9 Significant Stats: No significant stats Winner analysis: Many, many horses meet all of the general stats. M C Maldoon, E Flame, Lostwithiel, Untold Story, C D Lion, Postileo, Mancini, R House, J Hubert, G Rules, and D Highway. J Hubert interests me and I’ll be backing EW at enhanced place terms. I’ll go back through the rest of them as the afternoon progresses.    

Win Stats: Days: 0-59 = 95% 0-39 = 86% Bred: GB, IRE, USA = 95% LTO: 1-4 = 81% Runs: 1-3 = 95% Group: 1-Listed = 91% Distance: 6-8f = 95% 8f = 76% OR: S.D = 113+ Mean = 118+ Significant Stats: OR 113+ Winner analysis: Poetic Flare (4/1), Lucky Vega (13/2), Chindit (6/1), Thunder Moon (17/2), and Wembley (28/1) all meet the significant stat. PF and LV have the best general profiles and look solid EW bets. Indeed, LV appeared to be unlucky last time out and should get closer to PF this time. This course should suit Chindit more than Newmarket and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him go close. TM and Wembley have to put disappointing runs behind them to both feature but it’s interesting that connections have pitched them both in at the deep end again.  

Win Stats: Age: 3-7 = 100% Days: 20+ = 88% Runs since Jan: 0-4 = 94% Group: 1-3 = 88% Distance: = 88% OR: S.D = 112+ Mean = 116+ Draw: Optimal draw 4-14 Significant Stats: OR 111+ High 116+ Runs 1+ Winner analysis: Battaash (15/8) meets the high OR stat and won this first time out last year, however that data has reliability issues due to C-19 and most horses didn’t have prep runs before ascot. He does still have the best overall profile and if his fitness issues are behind him should give a strong account. Don’t think I’ll be backing him however. Winter Power (11/2) meets both significant stat and I was impressed with her last time out and I’ll be backing her EW. Oxted (9/1) and Extravagant Kid (13/2) also meet the two significant stats and need looking at in more closer detail. I’m expecting to see Oxted running right through to the line strongly.