Supreme Novices' Hurdle

EW Stats:

Age: 5-6 = 92%

Bred: IRE, FR = 85%

Runs: 2-4 = 94%

Hurdle wins: 1-3 = 92%

Won on a left-handed track: = 79%

LTO: 1-2 = 90%

Days: 20+ = 94%

OR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 148+

Best RPR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 148+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR 5-7 IRE/GB

S.P: Mean 10s and under

EW Analysis:

At the moment it is looking a competitive race, more so now that Ballyburn is being aimed at the Gallaghers. Tullyhill (4/1) has the strongest EW profile, and I would expect Paul Townend to take the ride and try and make all. Slade Steel (6/1) has the next best profile and providing the ground does not dry up too much looks a fair EW shout.

Win Stats:

Age: 5-6 = 94%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100%

Days: 20+ = 88%

Runs: 2-4 = 94%

LTO: 1st = 88%

Grade: 1-listed = 93% 1-2 = 75%

Hurdle wins: 2-3 = 88%

Won left-handed: = 81%

OR: S.D = 144+ Mean = 149+

RPR: S.D = 145+ Mean = 149+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR/GB 6-7 IRE

SP Mean: = 7's and under

Significant Stats:

RPR 145+ high sig 151+

SP 12s and under

Positive correlation between Pos - RPR (145) and SP (7's under)

Winner analysis:

The yearly reminder that OR’s and RPRs need double checking when decs are made as they can change to what they are currently.

Those at the forefront of the market are usually bang there so it is worth noting any market moves on the lead up and on the day. Tullyhill meets both the sig stats and the correlation (price can obvs change that) and has the best overall profile and Slade Steel also meets the sig stats and correlation, although his general profile is not as strong. One horse that could be interesting if he lines up here and if PT decides to ride is Ile Atlantique (12/1). He also meets the two sig stats and 12/1 NRNB looks a fair price. Current fav, Mystical Power (3/1) best RPR (144) is a concern and despite the fact I think he will be well punted on the day, he just is not for me. 

For any new readers, the significant stats are the key stats I focus on, followed by the general stats. Best of luck for the week and I hope this will help you narrow down the field and help you find some winners. 

Be lucky. 


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