Posts

Cheltenham Festival 2026 Review

What a fantastic week—great to see such competitive fields, especially in the graded races. Tuesday Review: The week got off to a flying start in the Supreme Novices’, with Old Park Star and Sober Glory (14/1 at the time) finishing first and second, and all three key stats holding up. In the Arkle, Kargese (6/1) was highlighted as a strong each-way option and also featured prominently in the winner analysis, meeting three of the four key stats—the only missing one being chase wins that season. The Fred Winter proved productive too, with the analysis pointing towards placed horses Winston Junior, Kilycot (40/1 SP), and Pourquoi Pas Papa (28/1 SP). There was no luck in the Ultima, although the winner did meet the significant stat of a 5lb+ RPR vs OR, which strengthens confidence in that stat. In the Champion Hurdle, the two mares who finished first and second had the strongest profiles, and having backed Lossiemouth ante-post, that was a pleasing result. Finally, in the Plate, Mad...
Post a Comment
Read more

Triumph Hurdle

EW Stats: Bred: IRE/FR/GB = 97% Season hurdle runs: 1-4 = 90% Career hurdle runs: 1-6 = 95% 2-5 = 79% LTO: 1-2 = 87% Days: 21+ = 95% 21-60 =82% OR: S.D = Min = 128+ S.D = 139+ Mean = 144+ Season RPR: S.D = 132+ Mean = 139+ If Flat bred OR rating: S.D = 73+ M 85+ EW Analysis : The two fillies, Selma De Vary (7/2) and Highland Crystal (8/1) have the best EW profiles.  Win Stats: Bred: IRE/FR = 92% Career hurdle runs: 1-4 = 85% Season hurdle runs: 1-3 = 85% LTO: 1-4 = 100% Days: 0-60 = 92% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 75% OR: S.D = 140+ Mean = 146+ Season RPR: S.D = 133+ Mean = 140+ Flat rating: S.D 80+ Significant Stats: Career hurdle runs 1-4. Winner analysis: Again, the two fillies have the strongest profiles and I've backed both EW.  
Post a Comment
Read more

Mares' Chase

Win Stats: Age: 7-8 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR = 100% Season Runs: 3 = 100% Days: 20+ = 100% LTO: 1st = 100% Grade: 1-2 = 80% Grade LTO: 2-listed = 100% Distance: 20/21f = 80% Festival Experience: 80% OR: S.D = 149+ Mean = 153+ SRPR: S.D = 151+ Mean = 155+ Significant Stats: OR 150+  SRPR 152+  Winner analysis: Only 5 years of data so a very small sample to work with. Based on the sig stats, Dinoblue (6/4) and Spindleberry (9/2) are the only two horses to meet them.
Post a Comment
Read more

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

EW Stats: Age: 5-8 = 100% 5-7 = 92% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98% Runs: 2-5 = 98% LTO: 1-4 = 92% Days: 20+ = 97% Distance: 20f-24f = 85% OR: S.D = 136+ Mean = 143+ RPR: S.D = 137+ Mean = 143+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 IRE/GB EW Analysis : Kazansky (16/1), Spinningayarn (12/1), and Thedeviluno (4/1) all have strong profiles and warrant closer consideration. Win Stats: Age: 5-7 = 95% 6-7 = 90% Bred: IRE, FR = 90% Runs: 2-4 = 100% 3-4 = 90% LTO: 1-4 = 95% Days: 21+ = 100% Distance: 19f-24f = 85% OR: S.D = 138+ Mean = 144+ RPR: S.D = 137+ Mean = 146+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 IRE/GB Significant Stats: Course winner Age 6-7 Days 21+ High 40+ Winner analysis: The 40+ days angle is a new significant stat I’ll be using to help narrow the field, although I won’t dismiss a horse that falls just short of it if their overall profile is strong. Kripticjim (20/1) is the only runner to meet all three key criteria. His BRPR is a little below wh...
Post a Comment
Read more

Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase

EW Stats: Age: 7-9 = 97% Bred: IRE, FR = 87% Runs: 1-4 = 100%    Distance: 24f+ = 97% Days: 21+ = 100% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 90% Festival Experience: = 97% OR: S.D = 162+ Mean = 168+ Best RPR: S.D = 166+ Mean = 172+ Season RPR: S.D. = 164+ Mean = 171 EW Analysis : The Jukebox Man (4/1) and Gaelic Warrior (4/1) have the best profiles. I have backed both EW a few weeks ago. Win Stats: Age: 7-9 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR = 80% Runs: 1-4 = 100% LTO: 1-4 = 100% Days: 40+ = 90% Grade: 1 = 90% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 80% Festival Experience: = 100% OR: S.D = 163+ Mean = 170+ Best RPR: S.D = 168+ Mean = 175+ Season RPR: S.D = 167+ Mean 174+ Significant Stats: Grade 1 OR 166+ BRPR 168+ Winner analysis: Plenty of horses tick the sig‑stat boxes, but once you layer in the general stats, you’re really down to the two already mentioned plus Grey Dawning (12/1). I’m happy with the pair I’ve gone for. The only niggle is last year’s winner—if he comes ...
Post a Comment
Read more

County Handicap Hurdle

Win Stats: Age: 5-8 = 100% Runs: 0-4 = 92% Season: 1-3 = 92% Novice/2 nd  = 77% LTO: 1-4 = 85% OR: 129-158 S.D 132-146 Weight: S.D 10-6 – 11-5 Significant Stats: OR 144 and under Correlation with Position & LTO (1-4) Winner analysis: Any runner from the Mullins or Skelton yards warrants serious consideration. Murcia (6/1), Sizandahalf (16/1), Jubilee Alpha (20/1), Joyeuse (20/1), and Tellherthename (16/1) all meet the significant stats as well as the broader general trends.
Post a Comment
Read more

Hunters' Chase

Win Stats: Age: 8-11 = 93% Bred: IRE, FR = 93% Hunter Chase Runs: 1-4 = 100% Days: 20-59 = 93% OR: Mean 134+ SP: Mean 18s or under Significant Stats: Age 8+ High 9+ Winner analysis: Barton Snow (16/1), Its On The Line (11/2), Panda Boy (7/1), Stattler (14/1), and Wiilitgoahead (16/1) all fit both the significant stats and the overall race profile. I’ve backed Panda Boy each-way at ante‑post and will look to add a couple more closer to the day.
Post a Comment
Read more