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Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Chase

Win Stats: Age: 6-10 = 92% 7-8 = 77% Runs: 2-5 = 92% LTO: = Not a LTO winner = 92% Days: 20+ = 92% OR: 134-143 Season: Novice/2nd season = 92% Significant Stats: Novice or second season chaser Winner analysis: Three horses match both the significant stat and the key general trends: Waterford Whispers (9/2), The Enabler (20/1), and Prends Garde A Toi (14/1). All three appear to have been campaigned with a Cheltenham handicap in mind throughout the season.
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Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle

Win Stats: Age: 6-9 = 87% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 2-6 = 87% OR: 131-152 S.D 135-146 Weight: 10-1 – 11-12 S.D 10-7 – 11-8 Qualifying rating: 130-145 Avoid winners of a Pertemps qual = 93% RPR vs OR: M 4+ Significant Stats: Avoid winners of qualifiers Winner analysis: Supremely West (4/1) looks to have been expertly targeted for this race by Dan Skelton and has the strongest winning profile on paper. A lively outsider who could easily outrun his odds, and has a strong stats profile is Red Dirt Road (33/1), who appeals as the next best each-way chance.
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Ryanair Chase

EW Stats: Age: 7-10 = 88%  Bred: IRE, FR= 93% Runs: 2-4 = 90%  Distance: = 93% Grade: 1-2 = 75% Days: 21+ = 95% Chase wins season: 0-2 = 93% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 91% Placed at previous festival: = 83% OR: S.D = 157+ Mean = 163+ Season RPR: S.D = 162+ Mean = 167+ Best RPR: S.D = 163+ Mean 169+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-10 FR 7-10 IRE EW Analysis : Banbridge (7/1) has the most appealing EW profile and if the ground is on the good side I can so no reason why he wouldn’t be there at the finish. Win Stats: Age: 7-10 = 95% Bred: IRE, FR = 90% Runs: 2-4 = 100% Course winner: = 85% Days: 21+ = 100% Distance: = 100% Grade: 1-2 = 80% Chase wins season: 0-3 = 100% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 100% Placed at previous festival: = 86% OR: S.D = 159+ Mean = 165+ Season RPR: S.D = 165+ Mean = 170+ Best RPR: S.D = 167+ Mean = 172+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 7-10 FR 8-10 IRE Significant Stats: OR 161+ Season RPR 165+ Best RPR 166+ Course winner Positiv...
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Stayers' Hurdle

EW Stats: Age: 6-10 = 92% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98% Runs: 2-5 = 92% Days: 21+ = 100% 40+ = 85% LTO: 1-4 = 92% Grade: 1 or 2 = 90% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 93% Distance: 20f+ = 95% Left-handed win: = 95% OR: S.D = 154+ Mean = 161+ Season RPR: S.D = 154+ Mean = 161+ EW Analysis : Ballyburn (12/1) offers the strongest each‑way profile against the historical stats, though he does need to bounce back from an unconvincing run last time out. Win Stats: Age: 6-9 = 90% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 2-5 = 90% Days: 21+ = 100% 40+ = 90% Distance: = 80% Distance: 20f+ = 93% LTO: 1-4 = 95% 1-2 = 80% Grade: 1 or 2 = 100% Left-handed win: 100% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 93% OR: S.D = 154+ Mean = 162+ Season RPR: S.D = 157+ Mean = 164+ Significant Stats: Season RPR 159+ high 164+ Winner analysis: Teahupoo (5/2) matches the high‑end significant RPR stat and has the most statistically strong profile at the top of the market. Last year’s winner Bob Olinger also ...
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Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle

EW Stats: Age: 6-9 – 91% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 0-5 = 100% LTO: 1-3 = 87% Days: 20+ = 89% Distance: 20/21f = 89% Grade: 1-listed = 89% OR: S.D = 137+ Mean = 147+ RPR: S.D = 140+ Mean = 149+ EW Analysis: Excluding the favourite, Jade De Grugy (7/2), Jetara (25/1), Take No Chances (10/1), and Feet Of A Dancer (7/1) all present very strong each-way profiles. I’ve already backed Take No Chances EW ante‑post. Win Stats: Age: 5-9 = 93% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 0-3 = 87% Days: 20+ = 93% LTO: 1-2 = 87% Grade: 1-listed = 100% Distance: 20/21f = 93% OR: S.D = 147+ Mean = 154+ RPR: S.D = 148+ Mean = 155+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-9 FR 6-9 IRE/GB Significant Stats: OR 146+  RPR 148+  Grade 1-3 Runs 0-3 Positive correlation between position, OR (154+), RPR (155+), runs 0-3, and grade 1-3.  Winner analysis: The favourite, Woodhooh (8/11), meets all three key significant stats, and having backed her early ante‑post, I’...
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(Coral) Cup Handicap Hurdle

EW Stats: Age: 5-8 = 85% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98% IRE/FR = 88% Runs: 1-5 = 88% Days: 21+ = 96% Season: Avoid novices = 98% OR: 134-155 S.D 138-149 Weight: 10-2 – 11-12 S.D 10-9 – 11-8 Season RPR: 124+ M 135+ BRPR: 135+ M 139+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 5-9 IRE/GB EW analysis: Kopeck De Mee (12/1), Jinko Blue (14/1), Puturhandstogether (16/1), Chart Topper (33/1), and Beckett Rock (40/1) have nice profiles. I have previously backed Jinko Blue. Win Stats: Age: 5-8 – 94% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE/FR = 88% Runs: 1-4 = 81% Days: 21+ = 100% Season: Avoid novices = 94% OR: 135-153 S.D 139-150 Weight: 10-2 – 11-10 S.D 10-10 – 11-8 Season RPR: S.D 136+ Best RPR: S.D 143+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 7-9 IRE/GB Significant Stats: BRPR 4lb above their OR is showing as minor positive correlation (found JDS last year). Winner analysis: Focusing strictly on the significant correlation (BRPR ≥ OR + 4), and accounting for claimers where appropriate, ...
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Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase

EW Stats: Age: 6-11 = 95%  Runs: 2-5 = 90%  Days: 21+ = 100% Distance: = 98% Bred: IR, FR, GB = 98% OR: 134-155 S.D 138-149 Weight: 10-2 – 11-11 S.D 10-9 – 11-6 X Tab: 6 year olds/FR EW analysis: Beyond ridiculous how many horses meet the EW stats. Moving on. Win Stats: Age: 6-9 = 86% Bred: IRE, FR = 86%  Runs: 2-5 = 93% LTO: Avoid LTO winners = 86% Days: 21+ = 100% Distance: = 93% OR: 135-152 S.D 137-148 Weight: 10-2 – 11-8 S.D 10-8 – 11-6 Cross Tab: Age/Bred FR 6-9 Other 7-11 Significant Stats: Avoid LTO winners. Winner analysis: A working shortlist for me includes Be Aware (7/1), Addragoole (16/1), Jazzy Matty (10/1), Western Diego (25/1), The Other Mozzie (40/1), and Special Cadeau (25/1). At first glance, I’m particularly drawn to Addragoole, with Cromwell more than capable of producing one ready for this type of race. I also like Jazzy Matty each‑way, especially after the recent wind operation. I’ve already backed ...
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