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Ryanair Chase

EW Stats: Age: 7-10 = 88%  Bred: IRE, FR= 93% Runs: 2-4 = 90%  Distance: = 93% Grade: 1-2 = 75% Days: 21+ = 95% Chase wins season: 0-2 = 93% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 91% Placed at previous festival: = 83% OR: S.D = 157+ Mean = 163+ Season RPR: S.D = 162+ Mean = 167+ Best RPR: S.D = 163+ Mean 169+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-10 FR 7-10 IRE EW Analysis : Banbridge (7/1) has the most appealing EW profile and if the ground is on the good side I can so no reason why he wouldn’t be there at the finish. Win Stats: Age: 7-10 = 95% Bred: IRE, FR = 90% Runs: 2-4 = 100% Course winner: = 85% Days: 21+ = 100% Distance: = 100% Grade: 1-2 = 80% Chase wins season: 0-3 = 100% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 100% Placed at previous festival: = 86% OR: S.D = 159+ Mean = 165+ Season RPR: S.D = 165+ Mean = 170+ Best RPR: S.D = 167+ Mean = 172+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 7-10 FR 8-10 IRE Significant Stats: OR 161+ Season RPR 165+ Best RPR 166+ Course winner Positiv...

Stayers' Hurdle

EW Stats: Age: 6-10 = 92% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98% Runs: 2-5 = 92% Days: 21+ = 100% 40+ = 85% LTO: 1-4 = 92% Grade: 1 or 2 = 90% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 93% Distance: 20f+ = 95% Left-handed win: = 95% OR: S.D = 154+ Mean = 161+ Season RPR: S.D = 154+ Mean = 161+ EW Analysis : Ballyburn (12/1) offers the strongest each‑way profile against the historical stats, though he does need to bounce back from an unconvincing run last time out. Win Stats: Age: 6-9 = 90% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 2-5 = 90% Days: 21+ = 100% 40+ = 90% Distance: = 80% Distance: 20f+ = 93% LTO: 1-4 = 95% 1-2 = 80% Grade: 1 or 2 = 100% Left-handed win: 100% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 93% OR: S.D = 154+ Mean = 162+ Season RPR: S.D = 157+ Mean = 164+ Significant Stats: Season RPR 159+ high 164+ Winner analysis: Teahupoo (5/2) matches the high‑end significant RPR stat and has the most statistically strong profile at the top of the market. Last year’s winner Bob Olinger also ...

Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle

EW Stats: Age: 6-9 – 91% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 0-5 = 100% LTO: 1-3 = 87% Days: 20+ = 89% Distance: 20/21f = 89% Grade: 1-listed = 89% OR: S.D = 137+ Mean = 147+ RPR: S.D = 140+ Mean = 149+ EW Analysis: Excluding the favourite, Jade De Grugy (7/2), Jetara (25/1), Take No Chances (10/1), and Feet Of A Dancer (7/1) all present very strong each-way profiles. I’ve already backed Take No Chances EW ante‑post. Win Stats: Age: 5-9 = 93% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 0-3 = 87% Days: 20+ = 93% LTO: 1-2 = 87% Grade: 1-listed = 100% Distance: 20/21f = 93% OR: S.D = 147+ Mean = 154+ RPR: S.D = 148+ Mean = 155+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-9 FR 6-9 IRE/GB Significant Stats: OR 146+  RPR 148+  Grade 1-3 Runs 0-3 Positive correlation between position, OR (154+), RPR (155+), runs 0-3, and grade 1-3.  Winner analysis: The favourite, Woodhooh (8/11), meets all three key significant stats, and having backed her early ante‑post, I’...

(Coral) Cup Handicap Hurdle

EW Stats: Age: 5-8 = 85% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98% IRE/FR = 88% Runs: 1-5 = 88% Days: 21+ = 96% Season: Avoid novices = 98% OR: 134-155 S.D 138-149 Weight: 10-2 – 11-12 S.D 10-9 – 11-8 Season RPR: 124+ M 135+ BRPR: 135+ M 139+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 5-9 IRE/GB EW analysis: Kopeck De Mee (12/1), Jinko Blue (14/1), Puturhandstogether (16/1), Chart Topper (33/1), and Beckett Rock (40/1) have nice profiles. I have previously backed Jinko Blue. Win Stats: Age: 5-8 – 94% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE/FR = 88% Runs: 1-4 = 81% Days: 21+ = 100% Season: Avoid novices = 94% OR: 135-153 S.D 139-150 Weight: 10-2 – 11-10 S.D 10-10 – 11-8 Season RPR: S.D 136+ Best RPR: S.D 143+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 7-9 IRE/GB Significant Stats: BRPR 4lb above their OR is showing as minor positive correlation (found JDS last year). Winner analysis: Focusing strictly on the significant correlation (BRPR ≥ OR + 4), and accounting for claimers where appropriate, ...

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase

EW Stats: Age: 6-11 = 95%  Runs: 2-5 = 90%  Days: 21+ = 100% Distance: = 98% Bred: IR, FR, GB = 98% OR: 134-155 S.D 138-149 Weight: 10-2 – 11-11 S.D 10-9 – 11-6 X Tab: 6 year olds/FR EW analysis: Beyond ridiculous how many horses meet the EW stats. Moving on. Win Stats: Age: 6-9 = 86% Bred: IRE, FR = 86%  Runs: 2-5 = 93% LTO: Avoid LTO winners = 86% Days: 21+ = 100% Distance: = 93% OR: 135-152 S.D 137-148 Weight: 10-2 – 11-8 S.D 10-8 – 11-6 Cross Tab: Age/Bred FR 6-9 Other 7-11 Significant Stats: Avoid LTO winners. Winner analysis: A working shortlist for me includes Be Aware (7/1), Addragoole (16/1), Jazzy Matty (10/1), Western Diego (25/1), The Other Mozzie (40/1), and Special Cadeau (25/1). At first glance, I’m particularly drawn to Addragoole, with Cromwell more than capable of producing one ready for this type of race. I also like Jazzy Matty each‑way, especially after the recent wind operation. I’ve already backed ...

Mares' Novices' Hurdle

Win Stats: Age: 5-6 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Season Runs: 1-4 = 100% Career Hurdle Runs: 2+ = 90% Days: 20+ = 100% Distance: 18f-21f = 80% LTO: 1-3 = 100% OR: S.D = 131+ Mean = 138+ Best RPR: S.D = 127+ Mean = 136+ Significant Stats: Best RPR 128 OR 129 Distance 18f+ Positive correlation between position and OR (135), BRPR (134, and distance (18f+). Winner analysis: The favourite, Bambino Fever (4/5), hits all three significant stats. Oldschool Outlaw (4/1) also meets the key stats and produced an impressive RPR last time out; she fits the correlation profile as well. Echoing Silence (12/1) matches the key stats too, and I’ve backed her each-way NRNB. Finally, Place De La Nation (33/1) also ticks three of the criteria. If declared, I’ll add Oldschool Outlaw each-way on the day.

Plate Handicap Chase

Win Stats: Age: 6-10 = 93% Bred: IRE, FR, = 93% Runs: 1-5 = 93% Distance: = 100% Days: 20+ = 93% Season: Novice/2 nd  = 80% OR: 136-149 S.D 138-145 Weight: 10-7 – 11-2 Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-7 FR 7-10 Other Significant Stats: Distance Winner analysis: This isn’t a strong stats race, and no horse has a perfect profile. The ones that score best on the general stats and also hit the key stat are O’Moore Park (20/1), Madara (4/1), and Booster Bob (20/1).