Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase

EW Stats:

Age: 5-8 = 98%

Bred: IRE, FR = 85%

Distance: = 97%

Runs: 2-5 = 88%

LTO: 1-3 = 92%

Days: 21+ = 97%

Chase wins: 1-3 = 89%

Won left-handed: = 86%

OR: S.D = 145+ Mean = 153+

RPR: S.D = 150+ Mean = 158+

Hurdles OR: S.D. 134+ Mean 146+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-8 FR 6-8 Other

EW Analysis:

There does not appear to be an obvious superstar in the field which means it is looking a competitive Arkle. Gaelic Warrior (4/1) has been well backed over the last 24 hours due to Rich Ricci’s comments however I would be genuinely concerned about his tendency to jump right, even more so on the old course which is used for the first two days. Il Etait Temps (9/2) has the best EW profile along with Facile Vega (12/1), however the latter looks unlikely to run in this race at present, if he did though I will be backing EW. IET won at the DRF last time out, but again, I am not sure the course will suit but I can see him staying on for place money so looks a solid play. The next best EW profiles are Hunters Yarn (6/1) and My Mate Mozzie (10/1).

Win Stats:

Age: 5-8 = 100% 6-8 = 90%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% 

Runs: 2-4 = 90%

Days: 21+ = 95%

Chase wins: 1-4 = 100% 2-4 = 83%

Left-handed win: 92%

LTO: 1-2 = 95% 1st = 85%

OR: S.D = 148+ Mean = 157+

RPR: S.D = 156+ Mean = 165+

Hurdles OR: S.D = 142+ Mean = 152+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 IRE/GB

Significant Stats:

RPR 156+

HOR 145+

OR 152+

Chase wins 2-4

LTO 1-2

Positive correlation between position, OR (157+), RPR (162+), HOR (152+), LTO (1st) & chase wins (2-4)

Winner analysis:

The Arkle has always been a good race for stats followers with El Fabiolo meeting all five sig stats last year. 

 IET is the only horse to meet all five sig stats and has the strongest general profile, whilst I am not convinced, he is the winner I will back EW. GW meets four of the sig stats but as for reasons discussed above, I cannot back him. Found A Fifty (5/1) meets three of the sig stats but I have nagging doubts as to whether he is good enough due to hurdle form while FV also meets three.

Not sure I truly fancy any of them!


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