Posts

Showing posts with the label Tuesday 14th March

Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

E W Stats: Bred: IRE, FR = 86% Runs: 0-4 = 93% Days: 21+ = 93% Hurdle wins: 0-2 = 97% 1-2 = 83% LTO: 1-6 = 90% OR: 124-139 S.D 128-137 Weight: S.D = 10-11 – 11-6 Best RPR:  S.D. 120-135 EW Analysis: Tekao (9/2) and Byker (6/1) have the best EW profiles closely followed by Sir Allen (12/1). Win Stats: Bred: IRE, FR = 90% Runs: 1-4 = 100%  Days: 21+ = 90% 21-60 = 80% Hurdle wins: 1-2 = 90% OR: 125-139 S.D 128-137 Weight: S.D = 10-10 – 11-8 Best SRPR:  120-140 Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: This hasn't been a great race for stats in all honesty. The same two horses that meet the EW stats also meet the win stats. Quite a few bookies going 6 places so shop around. 

Ultima Handicap Chase

EW Stats: Age: 6-9 = 94% Bred: IRE, GB, FR = 100% Runs: 2-6 = 92% Days: 20+ = 90% OR: 129-155 S.D 137-149 Weight: S.D = 10-5 – 11-6 RPR Race:  147 - 158 Cross tab Age/Bred: FR 6-9 IRE/GB 7-9 EW analysis: Tea Clipper (20/1), Into Overdrive (15/2), Corach Rambler (7/1), Nassalam (8/1) and Karl Phillipe (40/1) all meet the EW stats. Tea Clipper should run a solid enough race providing the ground isn't to soft while last years winner should also go close.   Win Stats: Age: 6-11 = 100% 7-9 – 80% Bred: IRE = 88% Runs: 2-5 = 94% LTO: 1-5 = 88% Days: 0-59 = 88% Distance: 24f+ = 88% OR: 129-155 S.D 136-149 Weight: S.D = 10-4 – 11-6 RPR Race:  142+ Significant Stats: Days 0-59 Winner analysis: A number of horses meet the sig stat however two horses also stand out on general stats, Monbeg Genius (14/1) and Oscar Elite (11/1). Monbeg Genius appears to be a horse still on the upgrade and Oscar Elite ran well in this race last year. Happy to back both EW alongside Tea Cl...

National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys' Novices' Chase

EW Stats: Age: 7-10 = 91% Bred: IRE/FR = 88% Runs since Sept: 2-7 = 100% Days: 21+ = 94% Starting price: 12s or under OR: S.D. = 140+ Mean = 146+ Season RPR: S.D = 138+ Mean = 146+ Cross Tab Age/Bred: FR 6-8 IRE 6-10 EW Analysis : There could be some EW value to be had in the regular market and the without GDM market so check both. Churchstonewarrior (7/1), Chemical Energy (7/1), and Minella Crooner (9/1) have the best profiles. Win Stats: Age: 7-10 = 91% Runs since Sept: 2-5 = 100% Days: 21+ = 100% Won over 24f+ = 82% Starting price: 16s or under OR: S.D. = 143+ Mean = 148+ Season RPR: S.D = 140+ Mean = 149+ Significant Stats: Days 40+ OR 143+ High 148+ Winner analysis: A couple of strong sig stats to focus on and Chemical Energy meets both and I've backed EW ante post. The fav GDM (6/5) is one of my bigger ante post winners and he is the only horse that meets the high OR sig stat. Best of the rest on general profiles are Churchstonewarrior and Mahler Mission (6/1).  Just a note o...

David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle

EW Stats: Age: 6-9 – 91% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 0-5 = 94% LTO: 1-3 = 86% Days: 20+ = 92% Distance: 20/21f = 89% Grade: 1-listed = 86% OR: S.D = 137+ Mean = 147+ RPR: S.D = 139+ Mean = 149+ EW Analysis : A race to confirm OR’s when decs are out. If last years winner, Marie's Rock (10/3) turns up here rather than the stayers then EW bets may look different. Love Envoi (15/2) and Epatante (4/1) have excellent profiles. I've backed Epatante ante post.  Win Stats: Age: 5-9 = 92% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 0-5 = 100% Days: 20+ = 92% LTO: 1-3 = 100% 1st = 83% Grade: 1-listed = 100% Distance: 20/21f = 100% OR: S.D = 145+ Mean = 153+ RPR: S.D = 147+ Mean = 154+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-9 FR 6-9 IRE/GB Significant Stats: OR 143+  RPR 145+  Grade 1-3 Positive correlation between position, OR (153+), RPR (154+), runs 0-5 Winner analysis: This looks a cracking race, especially if MR turns up here as well. Epatante has the best profile and meets all three sig stats and the...

Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy

EW Stats: Age: 5-9 = 95% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98% Runs: 1-4 = 93% 2-4 = 87% LTO: 1-3 = 88% Days: 21+ = 100% Season wins: 1-3 = 93% Grade LTO: 1 - listed = 97% Previous festival experience: = 88% OR: S.D = 158+ Mean = 163+ RPR: S.D = 160+ Mean = 165+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-8 FR 5-9 IRE/GB EW Analysis : Vauban (14/1) and I Like To Move It (16/1) have the best EW profiles away from the front two. May be worth looking at the without markets on the day to see if there is any value in either. Win Stats: Age: 5-9 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 1-4 = 95% Days: 21+ = 95% LTO: 1-2 = 90% 1st = 80% Previous festival experience: = 95% Grade: 1-2 = 75% Grade run LTO: 1 - listed = 91% Season wins: 1-3 = 100% OR: S.D = 160+ Mean = 165+ RPR: S.D = 162+ Mean = 166+ Significant Stats: Season wins 1-3 high 2-3 LTO 1-2. High 1st Positive correlation between position and previous festival experience. Winner analysis: I'm looking for a hor...

Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase

EW Stats: Age: 5-8 = 98% Distance: = 98% Runs: 2-5 = 88% LTO: 1-3 = 93% Days: 21+ = 95% Chase wins: 1-4 = 100% Won left handed: = 85% OR: S.D = 145+ Mean = 152+ RPR: S.D = 150+ Mean = 158+ Hurdles OR: S.D. 133+ Mean 145+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 Other EW Analysis : Away from the front two, Dysart Dynamo (9/2) has the best EW profile and this track and slightly shorter trip may suit him better than at Leopardstown last time out. Win Stats: Age: 5-8 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100%  Distance: = 95% Runs: 2-4 = 90% 3-4 = 85% Days: 21+ = 95% Chase wins: 1-4 = 100% Left handed win: 91% LTO: 1-2 = 95% 1st = 85% Grade 1 or 2 = 75% OR: S.D = 148+ Mean = 157+ RPR: S.D = 156+ Mean = 165+ Hurdles OR: S.D = 143+ Mean = 152+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 IRE/GB Significant Stats: RPR 156+ high 162+ HOR 145+ high 152+ OR 151+ high 157+ Chase wins 2-4 Course winner (treat with caution still) LTO 1-2 high 1st Positive correlation between position, OR (157+), RPR (162+), HOR (152+) & chase ...

Supreme Novices' Hurdle

EW Stats: Age: 5-6 = 91% Bred: IRE, FR = 87% Runs: 2-4 = 93% Hurdle wins: 1-4 = 100% Won on a left handed track: = 80% LTO: 1-2 = 91% Days: 20+ = 93% OR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 147+ Best RPR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 148+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR/GB 5-7 IRE EW Analysis : Il Et Temps (13/2) has a strong EW profile and on paper has the strongest form coming into the race. His previous RPR of 158 is the highest in the field and a reproduction of that would see him place at the very least. Marine Nationale (4/1) has the next best profile and the trainer has been very bullish in recent press reports. Win Stats: Age: 5-7 = 100% 5-6 = 93% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 2-4 = 93% LTO: 1st = 87% Grade: 1-listed = 93% Hurdle wins: 2-3 = 87% Won left handed: = 80% OR: S.D = 144+ Mean = 149+ RPR: S.D = 145+ Mean = 149+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR/GB 6-7 IRE SP Mean: = 12's and under Significant Stats: RPR 145+ high sig 151+ Positive correlation between pos - RPR (145) and SP (12's under) Winner analysi...