Significant Horse Racing Stats

EW Stats: Bred: IRE, FR, GB, GER = 97% Season Runs: 2-4 = 81% Days: 21+ = 94% Hurdle wins: 0-2 = 97% 1-2 = 83% LTO: 1-6 = 89% OR: 122-139 S.D 127-136 Weight: S.D = 10-10 – 11-7 Best RPR:  S.D. 114+ EW Analysis: Puturhandstogether (10/1), Holy See (25/1), Q Hill (20/1) and Teriferma (20/1) have excellent EW profiles. Win Stats: Bred: IRE, FR, GER = 100% Distance: = 91% Runs: 1-5 = 100%  Days: 21+ = 90% 21-60 = 82% Hurdle wins: 1-2 = 91% OR: 125-139 S.D 127-137 Weight: S.D = 10-9 – 11-7 Best SRPR:  120-140 Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Those mentioned above and Total Look (6/1) have the best win profiles. I have just backed Puturhandstogether and will look at the others in more detail on the day.

Win Stats: Age: 5-9 = 100% 6-8 = 85% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 1-4 = 95% 2-4 = 90% Days: 21+ = 100% LTO: 1st = 85% Previous festival experience: = 95% Grade: 1-2 = 85% Grade: Won a graded race that season =92% Grade run LTO: 1 - listed = 92% Season wins: 1-3 = 100% 2-3 = 85% OR: S.D = 162+ Mean = 166+ RPR: S.D = 163+ Mean = 167+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-9 IRE/GB Significant Stats: Season wins 2+ LTO 1st OR 162+ BRPR 163+ Positive correlation between position, OR (167) RPR (171+), LTO (1st), season wins (2-3). Winner analysis: It is a shame Lossiemouth will not be running but even without her we have a cracking race to look forward to. Con Hill (8/13) and Brighterdaysahead (9/4) meet all the sig stats and the correlation (BDA adjusted figs for mares’ allowance). I personally will not be backing anything, just sitting back, and watching what will hopefully be a classic. Good luck if you do have a bet. 

EW Stats: Age: 6-9 – 91% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 0-5 = 95% LTO: 1-3 = 88% Days: 20+ = 91% Distance: 20/21f = 90% Grade: 1-listed = 88% OR: S.D = 137+ Mean = 147+ RPR: S.D = 140+ Mean = 149+ EW Analysis : Jade De Grugy (5/1), Jetara (25/1) and July Flower (12/1) have the best EW profiles for those looking to take the fav on.  Win Stats: Age: 5-9 = 93% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 0-3 = 86% Days: 20+ = 93% LTO: 1-3 = 100% 1st = 79% Grade: 1-listed = 100% Distance: 20/21f = 100% OR: S.D = 146+ Mean = 154+ RPR: S.D = 148+ Mean = 155+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-9 FR 6-9 IRE/GB Significant Stats: OR 146+  RPR 148+  Grade 1-3 Runs 0-3 Positive correlation between position, OR (154+), RPR (155+), runs 0-3, and grade 1-3.  Winner analysis: The fav Lossiemouth (4/6) is the only the horse to meet the sig stats and the correlation. Jade De Grugy does meet the sig stats and having backed ante post EW I am hoping to ge...

EW Stats: Age: 6-9 – 94% 7-9 = 85% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 2-5 = 87% Distance: 24f+ = 78% Days: 20+ = 91% OR: 129-155 S.D 138-149 Weight: S.D 10-6 – 11-6 Best RPR Race 142+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-9 FR 7-9 IRE/GB EW Analysis : There will be plenty of bookies going extra places so shop around. Sequestered (20/1), Famous Bridge (18/1), Malina Girl(12/1) and The Changing Man (6/1) have lovely EW profiles.  Win Stats: Age: 7-11 = 94% 7-9 = 83% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE = 89% Runs: 2-5 = 94% LTO: 1-5 = 89% Distance: 24f+ = 89% OR: 129-155 S.D 137-149 Weight: S.D = 10-5 – 11-6 RPR Race:  142+  Significant Stats: LTO 1-5 Days 0-59 Winner analysis: The four horses above also meet the two sig stats and the win stats. Whistle Stop Tour (9/1) and Katate Dori (7/1) also meet the two sig stats and have good looking win profiles. Famous Bridge ran well for a long way in this race last year before tiring on the heavy going and looks a decent EW shout. The Irish have a terrib...

Win Stats: Age: 5-8 = 100% 6-7 = 80% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE, FR = 85% Runs: 2-5= 95% 3-4 = 80% Days: 21+ = 95% Chase wins: 1-4 = 100% Left-handed win: 92% Grade: 1-2 = 75% LTO: 1-2 = 95% 1st = 85% OR: S.D = 149+ Mean = 158+ RPR: S.D = 156+ Mean = 164+ Hurdles OR: S.D = 143+ Mean = 153+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 Other Significant Stats: RPR 156+ HOR 145+ OR 153+ Chase wins 2+ Positive correlation between position, OR (158+), RPR (161+), HOR (153+), & chase wins (2+) Winner analysis: No EW stats with only two places available. Focussing purely on the sig stats, Majborough (8/15) ad Jango Baie (7/1) are the only horses to meet them. The fav is the only horse to meet the correlation and I’m sure many people will be doubling him up with some of the other short priced favs on the first day. I will play the forecast for some fun.

EW Stats: Age: 5-6 = 92% Bred: IRE, FR = 86% Runs: 2-4 = 92% Hurdle wins: 1-3 = 92% Won on a left-handed track: = 78% LTO: 1-2 = 88% Days: 20+ = 94% OR: S.D = 142+ Mean = 148+ Best RPR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 148+ S.P: Mean 9s and under EW Analysis : Romeo Coolio (5/1) has the best profile for EW purposes. Others which have strong EW profiles include Salvator Mundi (8/1), Tripoli Flyer (20/1) and Karbau (20/1). The latter could be anything and at 20/1 at enhanced places could tempt people. Win Stats: Age: 5-6 = 94% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Days: 20+ = 88% Runs: 2-4 = 94% LTO: 1-2 = 94% Grade: 1-listed = 94% 1-2 = 81% Hurdle wins: 2-3 = 88% Won left-handed: = 82% OR: S.D = 144+ Mean = 149+ RPR: S.D = 145+ Mean = 149+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR/GB 6-7 IRE SP Mean: = 7's and under Significant Stats: RPR 145+ high sig 1510 SP 12s and under Positive correlation between Pos - RPR (145) and SP (7's under) Winner analysis: The yea...

Welcome to this year’s Cheltenham Festival significant horse racing stats page. For new readers and followers, the aim of this blog is to provide readers with statistics and trends for most races and more importantly highlight key significant stats/trends that will help narrow down fields to just a few horses. Some of the races include up to 20 years’ worth of data whilst others, particularly the handicaps 10 years. By no means am I ‘tipping’ horses, just providing information for readers to use as they wish. I will highlight horses I will be backing or have already backed. Finally, if anyone has any questions or suggestions, please message me on twitter @SigStatsHorses and feel free to like or retweet. Key: Sig stat: In principle, a statistically significant result (usually a difference) is a result that is not attributed to chance. A statistically significant difference is simply one where the measurement system (including sample size, measurement scale, etc.) was...