Posts

Showing posts with the label Thursday 3rd April 2025

Goffs Nickel Coin Mares' Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race

Win Stats: Age: 5-6 = 88% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE = 75% Career Bumper Runs: 2-4 = 88% Career Bumper Wins: 1 = 88% Days: 21+ = 88% Avoided Cheltenham: = 88% LTO: 1-5 = 100% OR: S.D = 108+ Mean = 115+ RPR: S.D = 105+ Mean = 113+ Significant Stats: No Sig Stats Winner analysis: Seo Linn (11/4), Charisma Cat (5/1), Kingston Queen (16/1) and Highland Haven (22/1) meet the general stats. 

Red Rum Handicap Chase

Win Stats: Age: 6-9 = 85% Bred: IRE, FR = 90% Distance: 85% Runs: 2+ = 95% OR: 129-149 S.D. 131-142 Weight: 9-9 – 11-10 S.D = 10-1 – 11-4 Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-8 FR 7+ IRE Significant Stats: OR 142 and under Winner analysis: The Folkes Tiara (6/1) and Calico (11/1) meet the sig stat and the general stats and I have backed both EW.  

Foxhunters' Open Hunters' Chase

Win Stats: Age: 7-11 = 91% Bred: IRE, FR = 91% LTO: 1-3 = 82% Hunter Chase Runs: 1-3 = 91% Days: 0-59 = 100% OR: Mean 134+ Significant Stats: Slight positive is a Cheltenham Foxhunters run. Winner analysis: Willitgoahead (4/1) has a strong general profile and meets the minor sig stat and I have backed EW. Famous Clermont (7/1) and Lifetime Ambition (9/2) also have strong general profiles. 

Aintree Hurdle

Win Stats: Age: 5-8 = 95% 6-8 = 85% Bred: IRE/FR/GB = 100% Runs: 2-5 = 100% Days: 20+ = 100% Chelt Run: = 85% Grade: 1 = 100%  OR: S.D = 154+ Mean = 162+ Season RPR: S.D = 161+ Mean = 166+ Significant Stats: Season RPR 161+ 167+ OR 158+ Season runs 2-4 Grade 1 If ran at Chelt needs to be in Champ Hurdle Winner analysis: Only Constitution Hill (5/6) meets all four sig stats, however I won't be rushing to take 5/6. Lossiemouth (13/8) meets three sig stats. I'll just sit back and happily watch. 

Bowl Chase

Win Stats: Age: 7-10 = 95% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 2-5 = 90% Distance: = 95% Days: 20-59 = 95% Grade: 1-2 = 95% OR: S.D = 160+ Mean = 167+ Season RPR: S.D = 164+ Mean = 172+ Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Ahoy Senor (6/1) has the best general profile closely followed by Grey Dawning (5/2) and Spillanes Tower (3/1)

Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle

Win Stats: LTO: 1-3 = 85% Runs: 2-7 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR, USA, GB = 100% Cheltenham run: Yes = 80% Days: 20+ = 100% Grade: 1-2 = 77% OR: S.D = 138+ Mean = 146+ Season RPR: S.D = 138+ Mean = 143+ Significant Stats: Grade 1-3 Hurdle Runs 3+ Season RPR 138+ 143+ high. Winner analysis: A very poor grade 1 race in my opinion. No horse meets all of the sig stats, however Mambonumberfive (16/1), Puturhandtogether (13/8) and Naturally Nimble (6/1) meet two and have satisfactory profiles. 

Manifesto Novices' Chase

Welcome to this year’s Aintree Festival significant horse racing stats. Just like the Cheltenham stats, the focus will be on the significant stats to help narrow down the field. Win Stats: Age: 6-8 = 93% Bred: IRE, FR = 87% Runs: 4-6 = 93% LTO: Avoid LTO winners = 100% Days: 20+ = 100% If ran at Chelt must be in Arkle not Browns = 100% OR: S.D = 149+ Mean = 151+ Season RPR: S.D = 155+ Mean = 158+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR 6-8 IRE Significant Stats: Age 6-7 Winner analysis: The sig stat is no use to us at all, so relying on the general stats, Jango Baie (11/4) and Croke Park (4/1) have the best profiles.