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Showing posts with the label Thursday 13th March 2025

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Chase

Win Stats: Age: 6-10 = 92% 7-8 = 75% Runs: 2-6 = 100% 3-5 = 83% LTO: = Not a LTO winner = 92% Days: 20+ = 92% OR: 135-145 Season: Novice/2nd season = 92% Significant Stats: Novice or second season chaser Winner analysis: The sig stat helps narrow down the field and when applying the general stats Mint Boy (12/1), Cleatus Poolaw (22/1) and Johnnywho (5/1) come out best. I have been keen on Mint Boy for a while, and I have backed EW.

Plate Handicap Chase

Win Stats: Age: 6-10 = 92% Bred: IRE, FR, = 92% Runs: 1-5 = 92% Distance: = 100% Days: 20+ = 92% 40+ = 77% OR: 136-149 S.D 138-146 Weight: 10-7 – 11-2 Hurdles OR: 125+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-7 FR 7-10 IRE Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Poor stats race generally. Focussing on the general stats. Il Ridoto (22/1), Masaccio (10/1), Gemirande (12/1) and Jagwar (5/1) have the best profiles. I will be backing Masaccio EW and look to add another on the day.

Stayers' Hurdle

EW Stats: Age: 6-10 = 92% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98% Runs: 2-5 = 93% Days: 21+ = 100% LTO: 1-4 = 93% Grade: 1 or 2 = 100% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 92% Distance: 20f+ = 95% Left-handed win: = 95% OR: S.D = 154+ Mean = 161+ Season RPR: S.D = 154+ Mean = 161+ EW Analysis : Home By The Lee (13/2) and Bob Olinger (25/1) meet the general EW stats. I have backed the Joesph O’Brien horse so far. Win Stats: Age: 6-9 = 95% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 2-5 = 90% Days: 21+ = 100% Distance: = 85% Distance: 20f+ = 92% LTO: 1-4 = 95% Grade: 1 or 2 = 100% Left-handed win: 100% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 92% OR: S.D = 154+ Mean = 162+ Season RPR: S.D = 158+ Mean = 165+ Significant Stats: Season RPR 159+ Winner analysis: Home By The Lee is the only horse to meet the sig stat and happy to go with him EW. I just hope the race does not turn into a sprint and that there is a strong gallop from the start as that should suit him.

Ryanair Chase

EW Stats: Age: 7-10 = 8%  Bred: IRE, FR= 93% Runs: 2-4 = 89%  Distance: = 93% Grade: 1-2 = 75% Days: 21+ = 95% Chase wins season: 0-2 = 92% Grade LTO: 1-3 = 100% 1-2 = 90% Placed at previous festival: = 85% OR: S.D = 157+ Mean = 163+ Season RPR: S.D = 162+ Mean = 167+ Best RPR: S.D = 163+ Mean 169+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-10 FR 7-10 IRE EW Analysis : Last year’s winner Protektorat (11/2) has an excellent EW profile, and I have backed EW again. Djelo (12/1) also has a strong profile and ran a career best RPR last time out.   Win Stats: Age: 7-10 = 95% Bred: IRE, FR = 90% Runs: 2-4 = 100% Course winner: = 85% Days: 21+ = 100% Distance: = 100% Grade: 1-2 = 79% Chase wins season: 0-3 = 100% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 100% Placed at previous festival: = 85% OR: S.D = 159+ Mean = 165+ Season RPR: S.D = 164+ Mean = 170+ Best RPR: S.D = 167+ Mean = 172+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 7-10 FR 8-10 IRE Significant Stats: OR 161+ Season RPR 1...

Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle

Win Stats: Age: 6-8 = 80% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 2-6 = 87% OR: 133-152 S.D 136-146 Weight: 10-1 – 11-12 S.D 10-6 – 11-9 Qualifying rating: 132-145 Avoid winners of a Pertemps qual = 94% Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-8 FR 6-10 IRE/GB Significant Stats: Avoid winners of qualifiers Winner analysis: Despite the stats throwing up Monmiral last year at 33/1, I still believe the stats are not as reliable as other races. That said, Feet Of A Dancer (12/1) and D Art D Art (12/1) have good profiles and meet the sig stat so I will play both small EW.  

Mares' Novices' Hurdle

Win Stats: Age: 5-6 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Season Runs: 1-4 = 100% Career Hurdle Runs: 2+ = 100% Days: 20-59 = 89% Distance: 18f-21f = 78% LTO: 1-3 = 100% OR: S.D = 131+ Mean = 138+ Best RPR: S.D = 130+ Mean = 138+ Significant Stats: Best RPR 129 OR 131 Distance 18f+ Winner analysis: Aurora Vega (10/1) and Sixandahalf (10/3) meet all three sig stats. I have backed Sixandhalf ante post so will add AV as well. I have also backed Karoline Banbou ante post, and she meets one sig stat. Galileo Dame (13/2) meets two of the sig stats and would certainly have an EW chance, especially receiving weight as she is only 4 years old.