Significant Horse Racing Stats

Win Stats: Age: 6-10 = 93% Bred: IRE, FR, = 93% Runs: 1-5 = 93% Distance: = 100% Days: 20+ = 93% Season: Novice/2 nd  = 80% OR: 136-149 S.D 138-145 Weight: 10-7 – 11-2 Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-7 FR 7-10 Other Significant Stats: Distance Winner analysis: This isn’t a strong stats race, and no horse has a perfect profile. The ones that score best on the general stats and also hit the key stat are O’Moore Park (20/1), Madara (4/1), and Booster Bob (20/1).

EW Stats: Age: 7-9 = 86% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 2-5 = 94% Distance: 24f+ = 89% Days: 20+ = 92% OR: 127-155 S.D 139-151 Weight: S.D 10-8 – 11-9 Best RPR vs OR: S.D  2+ Mean 6+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-7 FR 7-9 IRE/GB EW Analysis : Konfusion (16/1), Search For Glory (40/1), Imperial Saint (16/1), Hyland (16/1), Myretown (10/1), and The Short Go (20/1) have strong EW profiles. Win Stats: Age: 7-9 = 83% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE = 92% Runs: 2-5 = 100% LTO: 1-6 = 92% Distance: 24f+ = 100% OR: 127-155 S.D 137-151 Weight: S.D = 10-7 – 11-9 RPR Race:  145+ BRPR vs OR: S.D 5+ Mean 8+  Significant Stats: BRPR vs OR. 5+ high 8+ Winner analysis: I have introduced a new stat that I was playing around with, and what it is, is a horses best RPR vs current OR. Ideally you are looking for horses who has at least a BRPR 5lb higher than current OR, or to narrow the field down further, 8lb above current OR. A number of hors...

EW Stats: Bred: IRE, FR = 85% Season Runs: 2-4 = 82% 3-4 = 74% Days: 21+ = 92% Hurdle wins: 1-2 = 85% LTO: 1-6 = 90% OR: 122-139 S.D 126-136 Weight: S.D = 10-10 – 11-7 Best RPR:  S.D. 117+ Mean 125 EW Analysis:  The following horses have good EW profiles, Winston Junior (13/2), Klycot (28/1), Pourquoi Pas Papa (28/1), Barbizon (25/1), Macktoad (50/1), and The Mighty Celt (28/1). Win Stats: Bred: IRE, FR, GER = 100% Distance: = 85% Runs: 1-5 = 100% 3-4 = 78%  Days: 21-60 = 85% Hurdle wins: 1-2 = 85% OR: 122-139 S.D 125-136 Weight: S.D = 10-10 – 11-7 Best SRPR:  S.D. 118+ Mean 126 Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: The horses in the EW analysis, except Macktoad meet the win stats. I have backed Winston Junior and Barbizon EW so far.

Win Stats: Age: 5-9 = 100% 6-8 = 85% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 1-4 = 95% 2-4 = 90% Days: 21+ = 100% LTO: 1st = 85% Previous festival experience: = 95% Grade: 1-2 = 85% Grade: Won a graded race that season =93% Grade run LTO: 1 - listed = 93% Season wins: 1-3 = 100% OR: S.D = 160+ Mean = 166+ RPR: S.D = 160+ Mean = 166+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 5-9 IRE/GB Significant Stats: Season wins 2-3 LTO 1st OR 161+ Positive correlation between position, OR (166) RPR (166+), LTO (1st), season wins (2-3). Winner analysis: The two mares Lossiemouth (5/2) and Brighterdaysahead (4/1) both match two of the key trends. Lossiemouth misses the last-time-out trend, while Brighterdaysahead falls short on seasonal wins, which has been a common feature among recent winners. The New Lion (5/2) meets just one of the main trends, and his current Official Rating and best Racing Post Rating sit sl...

EW Stats: Age: 5-8 = 97% 6-7 = 85% Bred: IRE, FR = 91% Distance: = 100% Runs: 2-4 = 94% LTO: 1-2 = 82% Chase wins: 1-3 = 91% Won left-handed: = 85% Grade: 1-2 = 76% OR: S.D = 149+ Mean = 155+ RPR: S.D = 152+ Mean = 159+ Hurdles OR: S.D. 138+ Mean 148+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-8 FR 6-8 Other EW Analysis : For those looking away from the top two in the betting, Kargese (6s), and Romeo Coolio (7s) have strong EW profiles.  Win Stats: Age: 6-7 = 91% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100%, IRE, FR = 82%  Runs: 2-5 = 100% 2-3 = 82% Days: 21 - 60 = 91% Chase wins: 1-4 = 100% Left-handed win: 91% LTO: 1st = 82% Grade: 1-2 = 91% 1 = 82% OR: S.D = 153+ Mean = 160+ RPR: S.D = 160+ Mean = 166+ Hurdles OR: S.D = 148+ Mean = 154+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-7 FR 6-8 IRE/GB Significant Stats: RPR 157+ HOR 146+ OR 153+ Chase wins 2+ Positive correlation between position, OR (158+), RPR (163+), HOR (153+), LTO (1st) & chase wins (2+) Winner analys...

EW Stats: Age: 5-6 = 91% Bred: IRE, FR = 85% Runs: 2-4 = 92% Hurdle wins: 1-3 = 91% Won on a left-handed track: = 80% LTO: 1-2 = 89% 1st = 76% Grade: 1 - listed = 78% Days: 20+ = 93% OR: S.D = 142+ Mean = 148+ Best RPR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 147+ S.P: Mean 9s and under EW Analysis : Talk The Talk (6/1) possesses a very strong each-way statistical profile. If connections opt for this race rather than the Turners, he should be very competitive. Another with a favourable each-way profile is Sober Glory (14/1), who produced an impressive RPR on his latest start, albeit achieved in heavy ground conditions. Win Stats: Age: 5-6 = 94% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Days: 20+ = 89% Runs: 2-4 = 94% LTO: 1-2 = 94% 1st = 83% Grade: 1-listed = 94% 1-2 = 82% Hurdle wins: 2-3 = 89% Won left-handed: = 83% OR: S.D = 144+ Mean = 149+ RPR: S.D = 145+ Mean = 150+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR/GB 6-7 IRE SP Mean: = 7's and under Significant St...

Welcome to this year’s Cheltenham Festival Significant Horse Racing Stats page. For new readers and followers, the aim of this blog is to provide key statistics and trends for most of the races. More importantly, it highlights the most significant patterns that may help narrow large fields down to a smaller group of realistic contenders. Some races include up to 20 years of historical data, while others—particularly handicaps—are based on at least the last 10 years of results. This page is not intended as a tipping service. Instead, it provides information and insights that readers can interpret and use however they wish. I will, however, highlight any horses that I plan to back or have already backed. If you have any questions, suggestions, or feedback, feel free to message me on Twitter/X @SigStatsHorses. Likes, shares, and retweets are always appreciated. Key Sig stat – In principle, a statistically significant result (usually a difference) is one that is unlikely to...