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Showing posts with the label Friday 14th March 2025

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle

Win Stats: Age: 5-7 = 100% 5-6 = 85% Bred: IRE, FR = 92% Runs: 2-5 = 92% Days: 20+ = 100% 20-59 = 85% LTO: 1-6 = 100% 1-3 = 85% Season:  Novice or 2nd = 92% OR: 135-145 S.D 137-144 Weight: S.D 11-3 – 11-9 Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR 6-7 IRE Significant Stats: OR 137+  Weight 11-2+ LTO 1-4 Winner analysis: Using the three sig stats I get a shortlist of Tounsvistor (50/1), Wodhooh (4/1), No Ordinary Joe (12/1), and No Questions Asked (25/1). I am not interested in Tounsvistor at all so I will focus on the other three. I have backed Taponthego ante post, and I believe he is well handicapped. The fav KDM could be absolutely anything, but you are taking it on trust he is ready to go after such a long layoff. That is a wrap for another year. Once again, I hope you have had a profitable Festival, and it is on to Aintree next. Be lucky.

Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase

Win Stats: Age: 7-11 = 100% 8-11 = 92% Bred: IRE, FR = 92% Hunter Chase Runs: 1-4 = 100% Days: 20-59 = 100% OR: Mean 135+ Significant Stats: Age 8-11 Winner analysis: Another poor race for stats so stakes will be small. Its On The Line (5/1), Ryehill (10/1) and Shearer (14/1) have the best-looking trends profile.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase

EW Stats: Age: 7-10 = 93% 7-9 = 85% Bred: IRE, FR = 88% Runs: 1-4 = 92% 2-4 = 80%   Distance: 24f+ = 80% Days: 21+ = 98% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 87% Festival Experience: = 82% OR: S.D = 160+ Mean = 168+ Best RPR: S.D = 164+ Mean = 172+ EW Analysis : Banbridge (5/1) and Corbetts Cross (20/1) have solid EW profiles, and I will back Banbridge EW on the day. Win Stats: Age: 7-9 = 95% Bred: IRE, FR = 85% Runs: 1-4 = 95% LTO: 1-6 = 100% 1-2 = 85% Days: 21+ = 100% Grade: 1 = 90% Grade LTO: 1-3 = 92% Festival Experience: = 90% OR: S.D = 164+ Mean = 171+ Best RPR: S.D = 166+ Mean = 174+ Significant Stats: Grade 1 OR 166+ RPR 168+ Days 20+ Winner analysis: Only Galopin Des Champs (8/15) and Banbridge meet all four sig stats. I would love to see GDC emulate Best Mate and win three Gold Cups and will play him in doubles throughout the day with other horses.

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

EW Stats: Age: 5-8 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98% Runs: 2-5 = 98% LTO: 1-4 = 92% Days: 20+ = 97% Grade LTO: 1-3 = 77% Distance: 19f-24f = 92% OR: S.D = 138+ Mean = 144+ RPR: S.D = 139+ Mean = 146+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 5-8 IRE/GB EW Analysis : Course and distance winner Jet Blue (8/1) has a strong profile, and I am interested in him EW. The Big Westerner (4/1) meets the EW stats, but I am not keen. Wingmen (8/1) and Ballybow (12/1) also have strong profiles, and I have already backed Wingmen ante post. Win Stats: Age: 5-7 = 95% 6-7 = 85% Bred: IRE, FR = 90% Runs: 2-4 = 95% 3-4 = 85% LTO: 1-4 = 95% Days: 21+ = 100% Distance: 19f-24f = 92% OR: S.D = 138+ Mean = 144+ RPR: S.D = 139+ Mean = 146+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-7 IRE/GB Significant Stats: Course winner minor Age 6-7 Winner analysis: I am not focussing too much on the sig stat as it is becoming weaker every year. Based on the general stats Jet Blue and Wingmen have the be...

County Handicap Hurdle

Win Stats: Age: 5-8 = 100% Runs: 2-4 = 83% Season: 1-3 = 91% Novice/2 nd = 75% LTO: 1-3 = 85% OR: 129-158 S.D 132-146 Weight: S.D 10-5 – 11-5 Significant Stats: OR 144 and under High 139 and under Correlation with Position & LTO (1-4) Winner analysis: Mullins and Skelton have won this nine out of the last ten years so take their horses very seriously. Ethical Diamond (14/1), Pinot Gris (25/1), Kargese (5/1), and McLaurey (8/1) meet the sig stat and correlation and have excellent general profiles. I have already backed Kargese, ED and McLaurey ante post so I am happy with my position.

Triumph Hurdle

EW Stats: Bred: IRE/FR/GB = 97% Season hurdle runs: 1-4 = 92% Career hurdle runs: 1-6 = 97% 2-5 = 81% LTO: 1-2 = 86% Days: 21+ = 94% 21-60 =83% OR: S.D = Min = 128+ S.D = 139+ Mean = 144+ Season RPR: S.D = 132+ Mean = 139+ If Flat bred OR rating: S.D = 73+ EW Analysis : Hello Neighbour (9/2) has the best EW profile away from the top two in the market and with extra places available is a decent EW play. Win Stats: Bred: IRE/FR = 92% Career hurdle runs: 1-4 = 92% Season hurdle runs: 1-3 = 92% LTO: 1-4 = 100% 1-2 = 83% Days: 0-60 = 100% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 92% OR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 147+ Season RPR: S.D = 133+ Mean = 140+ Flat rating: S.D 79+ Significant Stats: Career hurdle runs 1-4. Winner analysis: East India Dock (9/4) has the best general profile and posted an exceptional RPR last time out here at Cheltenham. Lulamba (9/4) has been the talking horse for some time but must improve considerably to get near to EID. Hello Neighbour also has a s...