Significant Horse Racing Stats

An up and down week which ended firmly on the up. From a punting perspective Friday and Saturday were very good with my two main ante post bets winning, Campanelle and Dream of Dreams. From a stats point of view, the significant stats did well with 21/26 being upheld helping to highlight winners, predominantly in the graded races. Winners shortlisted included Palace Pier, Oxted, Poetic Flare, Love, Subjectivist, Alcohol Free, Quickthorn, Point Lonsdale, Wonderful Tonight (I made a cock up with her as she was the only horse to meet the high sig stat of 118 on adjusted figures) and Dream of Dreams. The races in which the sig stats didn’t uphold was mainly in the 2-year-old races, the Coventry Stakes, Queen Mary, Norfolk and Albany, although Quick Suzy did meet 2/3 in the QM, this however is an area that needs looking at in further detail for next year. Overall, an enjoyable week.  

Win Stats: Age: 4-6 = 94% Days: 0-59 = 88% Distance: = 88% LTO: 1-6 = 88% OR: S.D 96-105 Weight: S.D 8-11 – 9-7 Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Many horses meet all of the general stats including Pendelton, Fresh, P Flyer, G Ambassador, H Jonesy, Edraak, L Dash, A Gold, Barbill, Zargun, and Raaeb. The key will be going through the form and seeing who looks well handicapped, handles the going and has form in large fields.  

Win Stats: Age: 3-6 = 95% Runs: 1-5 = 95% Days: 0-59 = 95% Group: 1-listed = 100% Distance: = 95% OR: S.D 109+ Mean 115+ Significant Stats: Days 0-39 Group 1-3 Winner analysis: A host of horses meet both stats and need looking at including my antepost selection Dream of Dreams. Starman (4/1) has the best general profile however he has ran poorly on soft going previously and there may be value elsewhere.

Win Stats: Age: 4-6 = 100% Runs: 1-3 = 90% Days: 0-59 = 90% Group: 2-3 = 90% Distance: = 85% OR: S.D 113+ Mean 117+ LTO: 1-6 = 95% Significant Stats: OR 113+ Winner analysis: Hukum (11/2), Japan (14/1), Logician (9/1), S R Priestly (14/1), Albaflora (16/1), and Mogul (20/1) all meet the OR stat. Albaflora should appreciate the ground and looks overpriced, the others I will go through again in the morning.

Win Stats: Runs: 1-6 = 94% Days: 0-59 = 88% Group: Avoid group 1 = 100% Distance: = 83% OR: S.D 103+ Mean 109+ Draw: 4-20 Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Best on generals are Tactical (14/1) and Naval Crown (8/1), both should handle the going and both have course form so they will be looked at in more detail.  

Win Stats: Runs: 1-2 = 100% Days: 10-40 = 100% LTO: 1-5 = 100% Sire Index: 8.1+ Dams Sire Index: 7+ S.D 8+ Best RPR: Mean 85+ Significant Stats: Days 16+ Runs 1-2 Sire index 8.5+ High 9.8+ Winner analysis: Looking for a horse with stamina in their breeding who has had 1-2 runs recently. That brings in Pont Lonsdale (5/4), New Science (7/2), R T Moon (10/1) and O I Yorkshire (33/1). When applying the generals New Science and R T Moon are best and on breeding both shouldn’t be too inconvenienced by soft going.

Win Stats: Age: 4-5 = 94% Runs: 1+ = 94% Days: 0-59 = 94% Distance: 10-12f = 94% OR: S.D. 92-101 Weight: S.D 8-12 – 9-7 Draw: 6-21 Significant Stats: Draw 6-21 Winner analysis: Not surprisingly a middle to high draw is advantageous in this race as this may be down to those drawn low front running and going off too quick, or being held up and then stuck behind a wall of horses. Those that meet the sig stat and have the best general profile include, Aaddeey (6/1), T Fury (33/1), D Pine (22/1), Quickthorn (11/2), S Cooke (9/1), L Eden (33/1), Khagan (50/1) and G Bazaar (9/1). Quickthorn, Aaddeey and D Pine catch my eye as EW bets currently with all three looking unexposed.

Win Stats: Runs: 0-4 = 100% Days: 0-39 = 85% OR: S.D. 88-102 Weight: S.D 8-6 – 9-4 Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: A very poor stats race and the OR and weight S.D. are large which indicates a big variance. Nine horses do fit the general profile, T O You (40/1), Create Belief (14/1), Belief (16/1), R T Venture (18/1), A’Shaari (20/1), D Light (25/1), Teodolina (33/1), M Wamba (66/1) and G Girl (12/1). On first look I liked the Irish horse Create Belief and have had a little EW bet so far. Not sure I’ll get involved with anything else, I will look through again in the morning though.  

Win Stats: Runs: 1-5 = 100% Days: 0-59 = 100% Group: 1-3 = 95% Distance: 7-8f = 95% LTO: 1-6 = 90% Ran in IRE/FR/GB Guineas: = 90% OR: S.D. 108+ Mean 112+ Significant Stats: OR 108+ Group 1-3 Winner analysis: Strong significant stats race and seven horses meet both. Slightly best on generals are Mother Earth (4/1), Empress Josephine (7/1) and Alcohol Free (11/1). The two O’Brien horses seem to go on any ground so any rain shouldn’t inconvenience them, Alcohol Free however is unproven with cut in the ground. I’ll be waiting to see what happens with the weather.  

Win Stats: Runs: 1-2 = 100% Career Runs: 4-7 = 100% Days: 20-50 Group: 1-2 = 83% OR: S.D. 111+ Mean 116+ Draw: 3-10 Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Not focussing too much on the draw stat. Having backed Campanelle antepost I’m worried about the ground going soft even though he has won on it over in France. Supremacy (10/1) and Suesa (9/2) have the best profiles and depending on the ground will look to add one of them to my Campanelle bet.

Win Stats: Runs: 2+ = 95% Days: 0-59 = 100% Bred: GB, IRE, USA = 100% Distance: 8-12f = 95% OR: Mean 106+ Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Poor stats race! Gear Up (12/1) has the best general profile followed by Yibir (15/2) and The Mediterranean (9/2). Gear Up ran poorly in the Derby but does possess strong 2 year old form on a range of ground and at the prices looks the value play. Away from the stats, I think Tasman Bay (16/1) looks overpriced as well, and if he was with a different stable he would be half those odds.  

Win Stats: Runs: 1-2 = 100% Days: 0-39 = 89% Bred: GB, IRE, USA = 94% LTO: 1-3 = 94% Foaled: Jan–March  = 94% Sire Index: 6.4 – 11.8 S.D 7.1+ Dams Sire Index: 6.9 – 11.4 S.D 7.8+ Draw: 7-20 Best RPR: Mean 86+ Significant Stats: Draw 7-20 Winner analysis: I’m a bit sceptical of the significant stat but I’ll use it for the purpose of this, however I will be looking at those drawn 1-6 as well from a form perspective. Prettiest (13/2) has a really good profile and is drawn 11 so I’ll be looking at her seriously, likewise, Hellomydarlin (16/1) and her stablemate Cachet (10/1). Looking through the card earlier my personal view is that this is a really strong race and will be worth following over the next couple of months.  

Win Stats: Runs: 2+ = 100% Days: 0-59 = 100% Distance: 8f-12f = 100% LTO: 1-3 = 94% OR: S.D 85-93 Weight: S.D. 8-4 – 9-3 Draw: 1-17 Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: While there are no significant stats, the general stats are pretty solid and a useful guide to narrow down the field. Marshall Plan (28/1), K Isami (14/1), S W Bruce (25/1), F Light (5/1), S Martino (66/1), M Misson (33/1). Surefire (8/1) and Tashkhan (12/1) meet them all. Backed K Isami so far and I also like the chances of Surefire and F Light, however I’ll bide my time and wait until tomorrow before I decide to go in on either.        

Win Stats: Runs: 2-4 = 94% Days: 0-59 = 94% Distance: 7f-8f = 94% Bred: GB, IRE, USA = 94% OR: S.D 87-97 Weight: S.D. 8-7 – 9-1 Draw: 3-30 Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Wide open handicap with 11 horses meeting all of the general stats. Out of the 11, Grid (25/1) has currently caught my eye and Big Narstie (40/1) although I’m tempted to just bypass the race completely.      

Win Stats: Age: 4-8 = 100% 4-6 = 90% Runs: 1-2 = 85% LTO: 1-6 = 90% Days: 0-59 = 85% Distance: 16f-20f = 90% Bred: GB, IRE = 95% Group: 1-3 = 90% OR: S.D 112+ Mean 117+ Significant Stats: OR 117+ Distance 16f+ Winner analysis: Two strong significant stats which hold up more often than not. Three time winner Stradivarius (6/5) meets both and is the obvious one to beat whilst the expected rain shouldn’t be a major concern. Trueshan (4/1) meets both and has a similar general profile to the fav and warrants respect, especially with the rain in his favour. Happy to say I backed him at 8s EW the other day in the hope of rain. Subjectivist (13/2) and Spanish Moon (16/1) are the final horses to meet both sig stats, not keen on SM personally but wouldn’t put anyone off the Johnston horse.    

Win Stats: Runs: 1-3 = 95% Days: 0-59 = 90% Distance: 7f-12f = 100% Bred: GB, IRE, USA = 100% Group: 3, listed or none = 100% OR: Mean 100+ Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Again, limited stats to focus on. Two horses have perfect profiles based on the above, Noon Star (5/2) and Dubai Fountain (11/1) and I’m pretty keen on Noon Star. She has the best form in the field, is beautifully bred, and wont mind the ground even with some rain and at 5/2 I think she is a decent bet.

Win Stats: Runs: 1-4 = 89% Days: 0-39 = 83% Distance: 7f-10f = 100% Bred: GB, IRE, USA = 94% Avoid Derby runners Group: Listed or none = 100% OR: Mean 104+ Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Not that many stats to focus after the data analysis, but the horse with the best profile is Roman Empire (9/1) closely followed by the fav Mohaafeth (15/8), Secret Protector (20/1) and The Rosstafarian (12/1). Again, how much rain the course gets will determine my play. Reminder that the fav was pulled from the Derby due to unsuitable going of good to soft.

Win Stats: Runs: 1-4 = 100% Days: 0-59 = 94% Distance: = 89% Bred: GB, IRE, USA = 100% Foaled: Feb–Apr   = 89% Sire Index: 6.4 – 8.9 S.D 6.7 – 8.1 Dams Sire Index: 7.6 – 11.4 Best RPR: Mean 91+ Significant Stats: Dams sire index 7.9+ High 9+ Foaled Feb-Apr Winner analysis: The two American horses meet the significant stats however I’m not sure the forecast rain will help their chances, so for the moment I’m happy to wait and see what the going is just before the off. Another that meets the significant stats is Go Bears Go (10/1) who won’t mind any easing in the going and won quite cosily LTO and I’ve had an EW bet. Korker (14/1), Little Earl (40/1), Khunan (16/1), Straits of Moyle (150/1) and Andreas Vesalius (18/1) all meet the two significant stats. Little Earl looks overpriced to me and I’m tempted to back at enhanced place terms and the same applies to the Irish horse AV although I’m going to hang fire on him.

Win Stats: Runs: 1-3 = 100% Days: 0-39 = 90% LTO: 1-4 = 95% Foaled: Feb – Apr = 100% Sire Index: 6.5 – 9.8 S.D 6.7 – 8.4 Best RPR: Mean 90+ Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: The following horses are on my shortlist based upon the general stats, Dig Two (9/1), Amalfi Coast (12/1), Tipperary Sunset (12/1), Flaming Rib (18/1) and Boonie (20/1). I’ll be waiting until closer the off time to see the ground and how the draw is panning out, I will also be limiting myself to 0.5 points EW as it looks a tight race.

Win Stats: Age: 4-5 = 85% Bred: GB, IRE, USA = 95% Runs: 0-3 = 90% Draw: 4-33 OR: 91-105 S.D 95-103 Weight: 8-8 – 9-5 S.D. 8-10 – 9-4 Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Like with most of the handicaps there are no significant stats to help narrow the field down. 13 horses meet the limited general stats and that just shows what a tricky handicap this usually is. Good luck!