Significant Horse Racing Stats

Superb four days of racing on the Knavesmire and it was great to back on the course again soaking in the atmosphere.  In total there were 13 significant stats with 10 being upheld, once again narrowing the field down to help find winners and decent priced placed horses. Winners and placed horses highlighted on the blog using the stats were (advised prices or SP used): Royal Patronage 25/1 SP Mishriff 9/4 SP Acardian Sunset 5/1 adv Rajinsky placed 20/1 adv Platform Nineteen placed 8/1 adv Flaming Rib 16/1 SP Ever Given 9/2 adv Fox Champion placed 25/1 SP Snowfall 8/15 SP Lusail 3/1 adv Gis A Sub placed 16/1 adv Winter Power 9/1 SP Real World 11/10 adv Sonnyboyliston 11/1 adv There are a few races coming up over the next couple of weeks I'll be looking at and if there is anything worthwhile I will put it up. 

Win Stats: Age: 4-6 = 94% Runs: 1-5 = 94% Bred: GB, IRE = 89% Distance: 12f-16f = 94% Draw S.D. 8-20 OR: 96 - 109 Weight: 8-10 - 9-9 Significant Stats: Draw 8-20 was vey close but no sig stats Winner analysis: The Irish horse Sonnyboyliston (11/1), Global Storm (12/1), Tribal Craft (12/1) and Max Vega (28/1) have the best profiles and I'll be looking at these four closer to the off after seeing how much we get. On a side note I have backed Murtaghs other horse, Mirann ante post and expect a decent run based on his staying on 4th at Royal Ascot and he won't mind the forecast rain either.   That's it for this week, hope people have managed to back a few winners using the stats and I'll write a review over the next few days.  

Win Stats: Age: 3-5 = 91% Runs: 2+ = 100% Distance: = 82% Group: 3 - none =91% Draw 2-8 OR S.D. 105+ Mean 109+ Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Another race was limited stats to focus on. Primo Bacio (3/1) is another I backed a week ago, this time at slightly bigger prices and I think she only has the fav to beat. Sir Busker (10/1) and Pogo (16/1) also have strong profiles and look solid EW bets. 

Win Stats: Runs: 2+ = 100% Bred: GB, IRE = 92% Distance: 10f+ = 92% Days: 0-39 = 85% Weight: S.D. 8-6 - 9-4 OR 84-96 Draw 1-15 Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Summers Knight (10/1) has a strong profile and is on a roll, his 8lb rise is far from ideal though. Marshall Plan (16/1) also has a strong profile and the trainer has indicated that they are expecting a good run. whilst Tashkan (16/1) is another with a good profile and the forecast rain will be in his favour. Finally, Annadale is the last horse to have the strongest profile and I can see him attempting to make all from his inside draw.   

Win Stats: Age: 3-5 = 94% Runs: 2+ = 94% Distance: 8-10f = 94% Group: 3 - none = 88% OR S.D. 109+ Mean 112+ Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Very little to go so caution needed, however Real World (11/10), My Oberon (5/1), and El Drama (7/1) are the three to focus on from the stats perspective. I did back MO last week at shorter prices than he is now!

  Win Stats: Age: 3-7 = 88% Runs: 2-6 = 94% Bred: GB, IRE = 88% Distance: = 94% Days: 20-59 = 88% LTO: 1-5 =88% Draw 1-13 OR S.D. 106+ Mean 113+ Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Strange for a Group 1 race not to have any sig stats. Winter Power (7/1) and Suesa (3/1) have the best profiles. 

Win Stats: Runs: 2-6 = 94% LTO: 1-5 =100% Born: Feb-May = 94% Days: 20-59 = 94% OR Min 100+ Sire index: 6 - 9.3 Dams sire index: 7 - 11.4 S.D. 7.7+ Significant Stats: Days 20-59 Dams sire index 7.7+ Winner analysis: There quite a few horses that meet both sig stats and the ones catching my eye are, Lusail (3/1), Gis A Sub (12/1) and Eldrickjones (16/1). 

Win Stats: Age: 4-6 = 88% Runs: 2-6 = 94% Bred: GB, IRE = 88% Distance: 14-20f = 88% Days: 0-59 =94% OR S.D. 106+ Mean 111+ Significant Stats: Days 0-39 Winner analysis: Trueshan (11/4) meets the sig stat and has the best profile however concerns over the ground. I think I will leave this race alone. 

Win Stats: Age: 3-4 = 94% Runs: 2+ = 100% Bred: GB, IRE = 100% Distance: 10-13f = 94% LTO: 1-2 =78 Group: 1-2 = 89% OR S.D. 112+ Mean 117+ Significant Stats: OR 112+ Group 1 Winner analysis: Snowfall (2/5) and Wonderful Tonight (9/2) meet both sig stats and should fight out the finish. No bet race for me. 

Win Stats: Age: 3-6 = 100% Runs: 1-5 = 85% Days: 0-59 = 93% Distance: = 93% Bred: GB, IRE = 100% Draw: 1-18 OR S.D. 95-104 Weight: S.D. 8-10 - 9-6 Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Not much to go but the horses with the best profiles are Orbaan (12/1), Ascension (22/1), La Trinidad (8/1) and Fox Champion (22/1). 

Win Stats: Bred: GB, IRE = 100% Runs: 2+ = 92% Days: 0-59 = 100% Distance: 5-6f = 92% Foaled: Feb-March = 92% Draw: 2-19 Sire Index: 6.4 - 8 Dams Sire Index: 6.7 - 10.7 OR S.D. 84+ Mean 93+ Weight: 9st or less = 92% Significant Stats: OR 84+ Runs 2+ Winner analysis: The following horses meet the two sig stats, System (11/2), E Given (9/2), Korker (11/2), Wings Of War (6/1), Mojomaker (9/1) and S Perfect (16/1). I've backed System EW so far and will go back through the race again shortly. 

Win Stats: Bred: GB, IRE = 94% Runs: 2-5 = 88% LTO: 1-3 = 88% OR: 97+ Mean 103+ Sire Index: 6.6 - 9.7 Dams Sire Index: 6.9 - 11-4 Significant Stats: OR 103+ Winner analysis: Sandrine (13/8) and Desert Dreamer (13/2) meet the sig stat with Hello You (8/1) just missing out by a pound. I'll be focusing my attention on these three.

Win Stats: Runs: 3+ = 89% Days: 7-30 = 100% Distance: 5-6f = 100% Had won at least one race = 100% Foaled: Feb-Apr = 100% Draw: 2-18 Sire Index: 6.4 - 7.9 Dams Sire Index: 7.6+ OR S.D. 78-89 Weight: S.D. 8-5 - 9-2 Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: A very competitive nursery as you would expect. The following catch the eye on the stats and are on my shortlist to go through in more detail; I'm A Gambler (10/1), S I T Sky (11/1), F Rib (14/1), W World (14/1), Pocket Rockett (18/1) and Guest List (20/1). 

Win Stats: Age: 4-5 = 92% Runs: 2+ = 100% Distance: 12f+ = 94% LTO: Avoid LTO winners = 94% OR: 79-100 S.D. 84-96 Weight: 8-4 - 9-8 S.D. 8-8 - 9-5 Days: 11-70 Significant Stats: Avoid LTO winners Winner analysis: Three horses catch my eye on the stats, Rajinsky (20/1) who was 2nd in this last year off a 1lb higher mark, Platform Nineteen (8/1) who travelled well over 2m 4f last time at Goodwood and Arcadian Sunset (5/1) who may still be well treated on the flat. 

Win Stats: Age: 3-5 = 94% Runs: 2-5 = 94%  Days: 0-59 = 100% 20-59 = 89% LTO: 1-3 = 89% Bred: IRE, GB, USA = 100% Group: 1 = 89% OR: S.D 117+ Mean 124+ Significant Stats: Days 0-59 Winner analysis: The significant doesn't really help in this case as they all meet it! OR was very close to significant and this race generally goes to horses with around a 117+ rating. The fav, Mishriff (7/4) and Alcohol Free (6/1) have the best profiles, taking into account AF age and fillies allowance and both should run big races. Mishriffs trainer and jockey are confident of a big run whilst AF trainer is bullish providing she stays the trip. Finally, Love has a very solid profile as well and she is a consistent group 1 horse. Leaning towards the two fore mentioned. 

Win Stats: Runs: 1-5 = 88% Days: 20+ = 94% Distance: 8-13f = 94% Avoided Glorious Goodwood: = 100% Bred: IRE, GB, USA = 100% OR: 95+ S.D. 103+ Mean 109+  Significant Stats: Avoided GG Winner analysis: Horses that have recently ran at GG don't have a good record in this race so I'll generally be avoiding them. Kemari (11/4) has a solid profile however one minor negative is that he appeared to relish the trip last time so perhaps the step down in trip my not suit. High Definition (4/1) has a very good profile, he does have a poor run in the Irish Derby to put behind him which raises a few questions, however at the prices and with Moore aboard think the 4/1 is a decent price. If the Ballydoyle money comes for him take note. The Mediterranean (16/1) is another with a very good profile and needs a second look.  

Win Stats: Runs: 1-4 = 100% 1-3 = 94% Days: 0-39 = 88% Distance: 6-7f = 94% LTO: 1st = 94% Bred: IRE, GB, USA = 100% Sire Index: 7.3 - 11.3 S.D. 7.7+ Dams Sire Index: 7.9 - 11.4 S.D. 8.8+ Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: This looks a good race with some potentially exciting 2 yr. olds, it does however look tricky. Noble Truth (5/2) and Royal Patronage (20/1) have the best general profiles closely followed by Dubawi Legend (9/4). Not sure I will be getting involved but I will give it another look through. On a side note, Charlie Appleby has had 3/8 2 yr. old winners at York in the last 5 years so appears to be quite selective as to which horses he sends and Mark Johnston has a 20% strike rate with his.

Win Stats: Age: 4+ = 100% Runs: 3+ = 100% 4+ = 92% Days: 4-25 = 100%  Bred: GB, IRE = 100% OR: 92-104 S.D. 94-103 Weight: 8-12 - 9-10 S.D. 9-1 - 9-8 Draw 3-18 Significant Stats: Bred IRE/GB  Winner analysis: There are many horses that meet the significant stat so considering all of the other general stats, Hurricane Ivor (8/1), Desert Safari (11/1), Mountain Peak (12/1) El Astronaute (20/1), Jawwaal (20/1), L Riddiford (20/1) and Ostilio (50/1) have the best profiles. I will be looking through form, trainer form and pace bias then backing with enhanced places, I have however already backed Desert Safari as I think these 5 1/2F trip will really suit. Most bookies are going enhanced places in this race so shop around.