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Showing posts from August, 2022

Ebor Handicap 3:35 York

Win Stats: Age: 4-6 = 94% Runs: 1-5 = 94% Bred: GB, IRE = 89% Distance: 12f-16f = 94% Draw S.D. 8-20 OR: 96 - 109 Weight: 8-10 - 9-9 Significant Stats: Draw 8-20  Winner analysis: A middle to high draw is advantageous, and using that stat and the generals the following horses come out with strong stats profiles; Earl Of Tyrone (6/1), Gaassee (8/1), Candleford (12/1), Alfred Bouncher (14/1), Trawlerman (14/1), Benaud (22/1) and Global Storm (33/1). I backed EOT ante post a week ago so happy with my position with him. I'm happy to forgive Candlefords last run and have just backed EW, while I think Global Storm is overpriced so will probably back him as well EW, my one concern is that he didn't run well in this race last year.   

City Of York Stakes 3:00 York

Win Stats: Age: 3-5 = 92% Runs: 2+ = 100% Distance: = 83% Draw 1-8 OR S.D. 105+ Mean 110+ Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Another race with limited stats. Jumby (9/1), Kinross (11/2), Rohaan (7/1), Sacred (9/2) and Sandrine (9/2) have the best profiles. At the current prices I think Kinross and Jumby look value EW. 

Melrose Handicap 2:25 York

Win Stats: Runs: 3+ = 93% Bred: GB, IRE = 93% Distance: 10-14f = 86% Days: 0-59 = 100% Weight: S.D. 8-6 - 9-3 OR S.D. 85-94 Draw 1-15 Significant Stats: OR 92 and under Winner analysis: Stats produce a shortlist of Aimeric (11/1), C Chorister (8/1), Temporize (25/1), S Knight (16/1), Nusret (12/1), S Rocks (14/1), and Adjuvant (25/1). 

Strensall Stakes 1:50 York

Win Stats: Age: 3-5 = 94% Runs: 2+ = 100% Distance: 8-10f = 94% OR S.D. 109+ Mean 112+ Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Very limited stats, the fav Mighty Ulysses (6/4) has the best profile, is top rated and should win this. 

Nunthorpe Stakes 3:35 York

Win Stats: Age: 3-7 = 89% Runs: 2-6 = 94% Bred: GB, IRE = 89% Distance: = 94% Days: 20-59 = 89% LTO: 1-5 =89% Draw 1-11 OR S.D. 106+ Mean 113+ Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: A fairly weak group 1 in my opinion and I'm not sure I'll even get involved. Best on the stats are Royal Aclaim (2/1), however at the price I have no interest, Khaadem (10/1), Raasel (12/1), and Lazuli (25/1). Definitely a race I will be going back through this evening. 

Gimcrack Stakes 3:00 York

Win Stats: Runs: 2-6 = 94% LTO: 1-5 =100% Days: 20-59 = 94% OR Min 100+ S.D 102+ M 106+ Sire index: 6 - 9.3 Dams sire index: 7 - 11.4 S.D. 7.7+ Significant Stats: Days 20-59 Dams sire index 7.7+ Winner analysis: Based on the significant and general stats, Noble Style (3/1), Royal Scotsman (10/3) and Chateau (12/1) have the best profiles. I've backed R Scotsman so far and may add Chateau tomorrow. I've a few concerns about Noble Style personally but I wouldn't put anyone off backing him. 

Lonsdale Cup Stakes 2:25 York

Win Stats: Age: 4-7 = 94% Runs: 2+ = 94% Bred: GB, IRE = 88% Distance: 14-20f = 88% OR S.D. 107+ Mean 112+ Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: A pretty weak stats race in all honesty. Stradivarius (6/4), Trueshan (2/1), Coltrane (13/2), and Tashkan (14/1) have the better profiles. No strong opinion from a betting perspective but I would love to see Stradivarius win. 

Sky Bet Handicap 1:50 York

Win Stats: Age: 4-5 = 85% Runs: 3-6 = 92% Bred: GB, IRE = 92% Distance: 10-12f+ = 100% Days: 0-59 = 85% Weight: S.D. 8-12 - 9-10 OR 88-99 Draw 1-13 Avoid LTO winners: 92% Significant Stats: Avoid LTO winners Winner analysis: The stats produce a shortlist of Mahrajaan (8/1), Charging Thunder (12/1), Parachute (20/1), and Angel Power (22/1).  

Sir Henry Cecil Galtres Stakes 4:10 York

Win Stats: Age: 3-4 = 100% Runs: 1-6 = 100% Bred: GB, IRE = 94% Distance: 10-12f = 88% LTO: 1-6 =100% Group: Avoid 1-3 winners = 100% OR S.D. 93+ Mean 99+ Significant Stats: LTO 1-4 Winner analysis: I've backed Mimikyu (9/2) based on the sig stat and the generals and I leave the rest alone. 

Yorkshire Oaks 3:35 York

Win Stats: Age: 3-4 = 95% Runs: 2-5 = 90% Bred: GB, IRE = 100% Distance: 10-13f = 95% LTO: 1-6 =95% Group: 1-2 = 90% OR S.D. 112+ Mean 117+ Significant Stats: OR 112+ Group 1 Winner analysis: The three at the front of market meet the 2 sig stats and are clearly the ones to focus on. The older fillies, Alpihnista (9/4) and L P Coco (4/1) form looks stronger and I'd be surprised if they don't fight it out between them.

Clipper Logistics Handicap 3:00 York

Win Stats: Age: 3-6 = 100% Runs: 1-6 = 93% Days: 0-59 = 93% Distance: = 93% Bred: GB, IRE = 100% Draw: 1-15 OR S.D. 95-104 Weight: S.D. 8-10 - 9-5 Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Blue For You (13/2), Echo Point (8/1) and Ouzo have the best profiles for the race and seem in good form and I'll more than likely be backing all three EW at enhanced places. 

Premier Yearling Stakes 2:25 York

Win Stats: Bred: GB, IRE = 100% Runs: 2+ = 92% Days: 0-59 = 100% 0-39 = 85% Distance: 5-7f = 100% Foaled: Jan-March = 92% Sire Index: 6.4 - 8 Dams Sire Index: 6.7 - 10.7 OR S.D. 86+ Mean 93+ Weight: 9-2 or less = 92% Significant Stats: OR 86+ Runs 2+ Stallion index 6.4 - 8 Winner analysis: Three sig stats narrow the field down to seven horses, Redemption Time (12/1), R Force (12/1), D T Hope (7/1), K Crown (16/1), Metahorse (12/1), W Heights (6/1) and Shouldvebeenaring (7/2). Richard Hannon has a good record in the race and has plenty of form lines through most of these horses and I can see why Shouldavbeenaring has been well backed today, he does have a couple of general stats against him however. R Time has initially caught my eye and 12/1 seems a fair price, while DTH, Metahorse and W Heights have the best general profiles so I'll be going back through their form in more detail. 

Lowther Stakes 1:50 York

Win Stats: Bred: GB, IRE = 94% Runs: 2-5 = 89% LTO: 1-3 = 80% OR: 96+ Mean 103+ Sire Index: 6.6 - 9.7 Dams Sire Index: 6.9 - 11-4 Significant Stats: OR 103+ Winner analysis: The Dramatised (11/10), Mawj (9/2), and Lady Hollywood (12/1) meet the sig stat. The fav looked very impressive at Royal Ascot and has apparently done very well at home since then. Mawj won a group 2 LTO and has to be respected, whilst Lady Hollywood has improved greatly in her last couple of runs. Happy to back Mawj and LH EW with enhanced places.

Sky Bet Nursery Handicap 5:20 York

W in Stats: Runs: 3+ = 90% Days: 7-30 = 100% Distance: 5-6f = 100% Had won at least one race = 100% Foaled: Feb-Apr = 100% Sire Index: 6.4 - 7.9 Dams Sire Index: 7.6+ OR S.D. 78-91 Weight: S.D. 8-6 - 9-2 Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Five horses have strong profiles and they include, Remarkable Force (20/1), Roque Spirit (14/1), Shandy Star (18/1), Braveheart Boy (12/1) and Mrs USA (4/1). Need to go back through the race in more detail, but I have backed Roque Spirit EW so far.

Sky Bet Stayers Handicap 4:10 York

Win Stats: Age: 4-5 = 85% Runs: 2+ = 100% Distance: 12f+ = 93% OR: 79-100 S.D. 84-96 Weight: 8-4 - 9-8 S.D. 8-9 - 9-4 Days: S.D 11-46 Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Three horses have the best general profiles, Soapy Stevens (6/1), Praiano (14/1), and Red Flyer (28/1). Having had a brief look through the form, SS and RF look solid EW bets with enhanced places. 

Juddmonte International Stakes 3:35 York

Win Stats: Age: 3-5 = 94% Runs: 2-5 = 94%  Days: 0-59 = 100% 20-59 = 89% LTO: 1-3 = 89% Bred: IRE, GB, USA = 100% Group: 1 = 89% OR: S.D 117+ Mean 124+ Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: This looks a fantastic race with the unbeaten Baaeed (4/9) up against last years impressive winner Mishriff (7/2). Both these horses have the best profiles and at the prices I'm happy to take on Baaeed with Mishriff. At least we know Mishriff will definitely stay and if he produces a performance like last year the fav will have to produce something special.

Great Voltigeur Stakes 3:00 York

Win Stats: Runs: 1-6 = 94% Days: 20+ = 94% Distance: 10-13f = 83% Avoided Glorious Goodwood: = 94% Bred: IRE, GB, USA = 100% OR: 95+ S.D. 103+ Mean 109+  Significant Stats: Avoided GG Winner analysis: Three horses meet the sig stat and avoided a hard race at Goodwood LTO, Aikhal (11/4) who I backed on Monday at bigger prices, Walk Of Stars (11/2), and El Bodegon (14/1). I wouldn't put anyone off the other two horses, particularly if the ground does ease. 

Acomb Stakes 2:25 York

Win Stats: Runs: 1-4 = 100% 1-3 = 94% Days: 0-39 = 88% Distance: 6-7f = 94% LTO: 1st = 94% Bred: IRE, GB, USA = 100% Sire Index: 7.3 - 11.3 S.D. 7.8+ Dams Sire Index: 7.9 - 11.4 S.D. 8.9+ Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Whilst there are no sig stats, both the sire and dams sire index are consistently strong stats. Oviedo (12/1) has the best general profile and I've backed him. Lord Dynasty (9/4) has the next best profile and posted a good RPR on debut and is to be respected, while Shaquille (20/1) also has a strong profile and has a CD success to his name. 

Sky Bet And Symphony Group Handicap 1:50 York

Win Stats: Age: 4-7 = 85% Runs: 3+ = 100% 4+ = 93% Days: 4-25 = 100%  Bred: GB, IRE = 100% OR: 92-104 S.D. 93-103 Weight: 8-12 - 9-10 S.D. 9 - 9-8 Draw 3-18 Significant Stats: Bred IRE/GB  Age 5+ Winner analysis: Seven horses are on my shortlist based on the 2 sig stats. Dakota Gold (9/1), Makanah (11/1), L O Louis (16/1), S Sovereign (16/1), Mondammej (20/1), Copper Knight (20/1), and K O Stars (25/1).  S Sovereign has the best profile when you apply all of the general stats, his best form though is with some cut in the ground. Makanah has ran some good RPRs at York which is a major plus and he is def catching my eye, his draw might be a negative however.  York is due some overnight rain so I will be waiting to see how much they get before I decide on what I will be backing however.