Epsom Derby 16:30

Win Stats - 18 years of data:

Bred: IRE, GB = 94%

Days: 8-55 = 100% 14-55 pref

Season Runs: 1-2 = 94%

Career Runs: 2-8 = 100%

LTO: 1-3 = 100% 1-2 = 89%

Distance: 7f-12f = 100%

Draw: Optimal range 4-12  

OR: S.D = 110+ Mean = 116+

Sire: 8.7 – 11.8 Pref is 9.5+ 

Dams sire: 8+ pref

Significant Stats:

Min OR is 110+ High sig stat 116+

Winner analysis:

Using the 110 OR as a min guide narrows the field down to six horses and that's where I suggest punters look. The 116+ OR high sig stat leaves us with two horses and it is these two I have backed. The fav, Desert Crown (9/4) is the top rated and has a strong general profile and looked useful at York LTO. It was interesting to hear his trainer suggest he was only just ready to run and that they suggested that  he will come on a lot for the run, I'm expecting him to go close. Godolphin have supplemented Nations Pride (6/1) and he is the other horse to meet the high sig stat and I've backed EW. My only concern is the rain that has arrived, I suspect in soft conditions he may struggle to stay a truly run 12f. Of the other horses that meet the 110 stat the two O'Brien horses, Stone Age (5/1) and Changingoftheguard (10/1) have solid general profiles, although the latter's draw may be an issue. 

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