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Showing posts from August, 2023

Ebor Handicap

Win Stats: Age: 4-6 = 95% Runs: 1-5 = 95% Bred: GB, IRE = 90% Distance: 12f-16f = 95% Draw S.D. 8-20 OR: 96 - 106 Weight: 8-11 - 9-6 Significant Stats: Draw 8+ (14+ high) Winner analysis: Once again, middle to high draw horses dominated the finish last year. Six horses make the shortlist based on the sig stat and generals, Real Dream (10/1), Adjuvant (12/1), Scampi (12/1), HMS President (16/1), Berkshire Rocco (25/1) and Caius Chorister (33/1). 

City Of York Stakes

Win Stats: Age: 3-5 = 92% Runs: 2+ = 100% Avoid LTO winners: 100% Distance: = 85% Draw 1-8 OR S.D. 106+ Mean 110+ Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Another weak stats race in all honesty. Sacred (4/1), Isaac Shelby (13/2), Mutasaabeq (9/1) and Audience (28/1) have the best profiles. 

Melrose Handicap

Win Stats: Runs: 2+ = 100% Bred: GB, IRE = 93% Distance: 10-14f = 93% Days: 0-59 = 100% Weight: S.D. 8-6 - 9-3 OR S.D. 85-94 Draw 4-15 Significant Stats: OR 83-94 Winner analysis: A four horse shortlist is produced using the sig stat and the generals and they are Middle Earth (15/2), True Legend (8/1), Fox Journey(12/1), and The Goat (12/1).

Strensall Stakes

Win Stats: Age: 3-5 = 94% Runs: 2-5 = 94% Distance: 8-10f = 94% Days: 0-39 = 83% OR S.D. 109+ Mean 112+ Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: A weak stats race but based on the generals above Nostrum (11/10) and El Drama (10/3) come out best.

Nunthorpe Stakes

Win Stats: Age: 3-7 = 90% Runs: 2+ = 100% Distance: = 90% Days: 20+ = 95% LTO: 1-5 =90% Draw 1-14 OR S.D. 107+ Mean 113+ Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: One of my fav horses in training at the moment is Highfield Princess (13/8) and she has a strong stats profile. Bradsell (4/1) and Khaadem (25/1) also meet the general stats. 

Gimcrack Stakes

Win Stats: Runs: 2-6 = 95% LTO: 1-5 =100% Days: 20-59 = 95% OR Min 100+ S.D 102+ M 105+ Sire index: 6 - 9.3 Dams sire index: 7 - 11.4 S.D. 7.7+ Significant Stats: Days 20-59 Dams sire index 8+ Winner analysis: Kings Gamble (6/1), Haatem (13/2), Lake Forest (20/1), and Power Mode (25/1) meet the sig stats. 

Lonsdale Cup Stakes

Win Stats: Age: 4-7 = 94% Runs: 2-4 = 83% Bred: GB, IRE = 89% Distance: 14-20f = 89% Days: 0-59 = 89% OR S.D. 107+ Mean 112+ Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: No sig stats and some weak general stats as well. Coltrane (5/2), Quickthorn (10/3), Courage Mon Ami (11/4) and Giavelloto (15/2) meet the general stats. 

Sky Bet Handicap

Win Stats: Age: 4-5 = 86% Runs: 3-6 = 86% Bred: GB, IRE = 93% Distance: 10-12f+ = 100% Weight: S.D. 8-12 - 9-9 OR 88-99 Draw 3-13 Avoid LTO winners: 93% Significant Stats: Avoid LTO winners Distance 10-12f Winner analysis: Educator (14/1) and Marhaba The Champ (11/1) meet both sig stats and have the best general stats profiles. 

Sir Henry Cecil Galtres Stakes

Win Stats: Age: 3-4 = 100% Runs: 1-6 = 100% Bred: GB, IRE = 94% Distance: 10-12f = 88% LTO: 1-6 =100% No Pen = 88% Avoid horses who ran at Goodwood = 94% OR S.D. 93+ Mean 99+ Significant Stats: LTO 1-4 Winner analysis: Makinmedoit (12/1), Climate Friendly (20/1), and Lmay (22/1) have strong profiles as does Sea Theme (7/2). I've currently backed Makinmedoit EW. 

Yorkshire Oaks

Win Stats: Age: 3-5 = 100% Runs: 2-5 = 85% Bred: GB, IRE = 100% Distance: 10-13f = 95% LTO: 1-2 =80% Group: 1-2 = 90% OR S.D. 112+ Mean 117+ Significant Stats: OR 112+ Group 1 Winner analysis: Savethelastdance (9/2) and Al Husn (13/2) meet both the sig stats and both look to have sound chances. I've backed Savethelastdance already and will look to add Al Husn EW with enhanced place terms. 

Clipper Handicap

Win Stats: Age: 3-6 = 100% Runs: 1-6 = 94% Days: 0-59 = 94% Distance: = 94% Bred: GB, IRE = 100% Draw: 1-15 OR S.D. 95-103 Weight: S.D. 8-10 - 9-6 Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: A couple of horses meet all of the stats, Akhu Najla (11/2) and Ropey Guest (33/1). 

Premier Yearling Stakes

Win Stats: Bred: GB, IRE = 100% Runs: 2-5 = 80% Days: 0-59 = 93%  Distance: 5-7f = 100% Foaled: Jan-April = 100% Sire Index: 6.3 - 8 Dams Sire Index: 6.3 - 10.7 OR S.D. 86+ Mean 93+ Significant Stats: OR 88+ Runs 2+ Stallion index 6.3 - 7.7 Winner analysis: Three sig stats and Twilight Romance (8/1) meets all three and I've backed EW. 

Lowther Stakes

Win Stats: Bred: GB, IRE = 95% Runs: 2-5 = 90% LTO: 1-3 = 90% OR: 94+ Mean 102+ Sire Index: 6.6 - 9.7 Dams Sire Index: 6.9 - 11-4 Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Cherry Blossom (2/1), Flora Of Bermuda (5/1) and Star Of Mystery (9/1) fit all of the stats. Cherry Blossom looked impressive winning her maiden last time out, and Flora Of Bermuda also won well at Goodwood, albeit on soft ground. Star Of Mystery had looked very good winning a listed race at Newmarket, however her run last time out was below par and she has to bounce back, connections have opted for a tongue tie to help.  

Sky Bet Nursery Handicap

W in Stats: Days: 7-30 = 100% Distance: 5-6f = 100% Had won at least one race = 100% Foaled: Jan-Apr = 100% Sire Index: 6.4 - 7.9 Dams Sire Index: 7.6+ OR S.D. 79-92 Weight: S.D. 8-6 - 9-3 Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Blue Prince (15/2), Dapper Valley (12/1), Barnwell Boy (20/1), Specific Times (18/1), and Key To Cotai (25/1), have the best looking profiles based on previous stats. I've backed Blue Prince and Dapper Valley EW with enhanced places. 

Sky Bet Stayers Handicap

Win Stats: Age: 4-7 = 100% Runs: 2-5 = 86% Distance: 12f+ = 93% OR: 79-100 S.D. 85-96 Weight: 8-4 - 9-8 S.D. 8-9 - 9-4 Days: S.D 11-39 Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Holiphon (12/1) and Forza Orta (14/1) have strong profiles and both have course form which is always a bonus at a track like York. 

Juddmonte International Stakes

Win Stats: Age: 3-5 = 95% Runs: 2-5 = 95%  Days: 20-59 = 90% LTO: 1-3 = 90% Bred: IRE, GB, USA = 100% Group: 1 = 90% OR: S.D 117+ Mean 124+ Significant Stats: OR 124+ Winner analysis: Both Paddington (8/13) and Mostahdaf (11/4) meet the sig stat and it looks to be between them. Again, I will probably sit this one out and just enjoy the race. 

Great Voltigeur Stakes

Win Stats: Runs: 1-6 = 95% Days: 20+ = 95% Distance: 10-13f = 84% Avoided Glorious Goodwood: = 90% No Pen: = 90% Bred: IRE, GB, USA = 100% OR: 95+ S.D. 103+ Mean 109+  Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Castle Way (7/2) has the best profile, however there's not much on trends between most of the horses. I think I'll just sit back and watch. 

Acomb Stakes

Win Stats: Runs: 1-3 = 94% Days: 0-39 = 89% Distance: 6-7f = 94% 7f = 78% LTO: 1st = 94% Bred: IRE, GB, USA = 94% Sire Index: 7.3 - 11.3 S.D. 7.8+ Dams Sire Index: 7.7 - 11.4  Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Four out of the six horses have really strong profiles. The two I like are Cogitate (10/3) and Hot Fuss (10/1). 

Sky Bet And Symphony Group Handicap

Win Stats: Age: 4-7 = 86% Runs: 4-9 = 93% Days: 4-25 = 100%  Bred: GB, IRE = 100% OR: 92-104 S.D. 93-102 Weight: 8-12 - 9-10 S.D. 8-13 - 9-7 Draw 2-18 Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Three horses have a strong profile, Intrinsic Bond (6/1), Vintage Clarets (16/1) and Mondammej (16/1).