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Showing posts from April, 2025

Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys'/Amateur Riders' Race)

Win Stats: Age: 4-7 = 87%  Bred: IRE, GB, FR = 100% Days: 0-39 = 93% Runs: 3+ = 93% OR: S.D 123-141 Weight: S.D. 10–11-7 Crosstab Bred/Age: FR/GB 4-6 IRE 6+   Significant Stats: No significant stats Winner analysis: Field is narrowed down to Afadil (6/1), Celtic Dino (7/1), Alnilam (14/1), Grimaud (14/1), Old Gregorian (33/1), Slugger (33/1), and Kings Hill (66/1).  

Sefton Novices' Hurdle

Win Stats: Age: 5-7 = 100% 6-7 = 90% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 95% Days: 0-39 = 90% Runs: 2-6 = 100% OR: S.D 135+ Mean 142+ Season RPR: S.D 141+ Mean 148+   Significant Stats: Age 6-7 SRPR 148+ Winner analysis: No horse meets the sig stats and in truth this looks like another poor grade 1 field. Familiar Dreams (8/1) has slightly the best general profile but is still some way short of a stats winner and I will leave this race alone 

Topham Handicap Chase

Win Stats: Age: 6-11 = 95% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% LTO: Not a winner = 100% Days: 0-39 = 84% Runs: 3-7 = 95% OR: 124-152 S.D 129-146 Weight: 10-0–11-8 S.D 10-1–11-3 Significant Stats: Days 0-40 Winner analysis: Shortlist consists of Soul Icon (33/1), Amirite (16/1), Grandeur Dame (16/1),  The King of Prs (25/1), Western Zepher (66/1) and Shantreusse (16/1). 

Melling Chase

Win Stats: Age: 7-9 = 85% Bred: IRE, FR = 95% Days: 0-59 = 95% LTO: 1-6 = 90% Runs: 3-5 = 95% Cheltenham run: Yes = 85% Grade: 1 = 90% OR: S.D 160+ Mean 167+ Season RPR: S.D 164+ Mean 171+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 8-10 IRE 7-8 FR Significant Stats: Season RPR 163+ Grade 1 OR 161+ 168+ high Days 0-39 Cheltenham run but must be in the QM or Ryanair IR/FR Bred Winner analysis: Dissapointingly small field. Jonbon (4/7) meets all seven sig stats and if he puts a clear round of jumping in should take the beating. Protektorat (8/1) also meets all seven and could dominate from the front and get an easy lead. 

Top Novices' Hurdle

Win Stats: Age: 5-7 = 95% 5-6 = 85% Days: 0-39 = 90% Runs: 2-5 = 90% Distance: 17f = 85% OR: 128+ S.D 134+ Mean 142+ Season RPR: 133+ S.D 137+ Mean 147+ Avoid grade 1 winners = 100% Significant Stats: SRPR 139+ High 146+ OR 137+ High 145+ Correlation OR 145 & SRPR 146 Winner analysis: The fav Romeo Coolio (6/4) is the only horse to meet both sig stats and the correlation and is a worthy fav. S Mundi (11/4), Tripoli Flyer (10/3) and Karbau (40/1) meet both sig stats. 

William Hill Handicap Hurdle

Win Stats: Age: 5-9 = 100% 5-7 = 80% Bred: IRE, GB = 95% Runs: 1-5 = 90% Days: 20+ = 90% OR: 124-145 S.D 128-140 Weight: 10-1 – 11-12 S.D 10-5 – 11-4 Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Wade Out (8/1), Wreckless Eric (11/1) and Off The Jury (25/1) have the best general profiles. 

Mildmay Novices' Chase

Win Stats: Age: 5-8 = 95% 5-7 = 84% Bred: IRE, FR = 100% Days: 20-59 = 95% Runs: 4-6 = 95% LTO: 1-4 = 89% 1-2 = 79% Cheltenham run: Yes = 89% OR: S.D 146+ Mean 153+ Season RPR: S.D 160+ Mean 164+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-8 IRE 5-7 FR Significant Stats: Season RPR 160+ High 164+ OR 148+ High 157+ Winner analysis: Handstands (5/2) is the only horse to meet both sig stats and the step up in trip should suit. 

Goffs Nickel Coin Mares' Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race

Win Stats: Age: 5-6 = 88% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE = 75% Career Bumper Runs: 2-4 = 88% Career Bumper Wins: 1 = 88% Days: 21+ = 88% Avoided Cheltenham: = 88% LTO: 1-5 = 100% OR: S.D = 108+ Mean = 115+ RPR: S.D = 105+ Mean = 113+ Significant Stats: No Sig Stats Winner analysis: Seo Linn (11/4), Charisma Cat (5/1), Kingston Queen (16/1) and Highland Haven (22/1) meet the general stats. 

Red Rum Handicap Chase

Win Stats: Age: 6-9 = 85% Bred: IRE, FR = 90% Distance: 85% Runs: 2+ = 95% OR: 129-149 S.D. 131-142 Weight: 9-9 – 11-10 S.D = 10-1 – 11-4 Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-8 FR 7+ IRE Significant Stats: OR 142 and under Winner analysis: The Folkes Tiara (6/1) and Calico (11/1) meet the sig stat and the general stats and I have backed both EW.  

Foxhunters' Open Hunters' Chase

Win Stats: Age: 7-11 = 91% Bred: IRE, FR = 91% LTO: 1-3 = 82% Hunter Chase Runs: 1-3 = 91% Days: 0-59 = 100% OR: Mean 134+ Significant Stats: Slight positive is a Cheltenham Foxhunters run. Winner analysis: Willitgoahead (4/1) has a strong general profile and meets the minor sig stat and I have backed EW. Famous Clermont (7/1) and Lifetime Ambition (9/2) also have strong general profiles. 

Aintree Hurdle

Win Stats: Age: 5-8 = 95% 6-8 = 85% Bred: IRE/FR/GB = 100% Runs: 2-5 = 100% Days: 20+ = 100% Chelt Run: = 85% Grade: 1 = 100%  OR: S.D = 154+ Mean = 162+ Season RPR: S.D = 161+ Mean = 166+ Significant Stats: Season RPR 161+ 167+ OR 158+ Season runs 2-4 Grade 1 If ran at Chelt needs to be in Champ Hurdle Winner analysis: Only Constitution Hill (5/6) meets all four sig stats, however I won't be rushing to take 5/6. Lossiemouth (13/8) meets three sig stats. I'll just sit back and happily watch. 

Bowl Chase

Win Stats: Age: 7-10 = 95% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 2-5 = 90% Distance: = 95% Days: 20-59 = 95% Grade: 1-2 = 95% OR: S.D = 160+ Mean = 167+ Season RPR: S.D = 164+ Mean = 172+ Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Ahoy Senor (6/1) has the best general profile closely followed by Grey Dawning (5/2) and Spillanes Tower (3/1)

Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle

Win Stats: LTO: 1-3 = 85% Runs: 2-7 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR, USA, GB = 100% Cheltenham run: Yes = 80% Days: 20+ = 100% Grade: 1-2 = 77% OR: S.D = 138+ Mean = 146+ Season RPR: S.D = 138+ Mean = 143+ Significant Stats: Grade 1-3 Hurdle Runs 3+ Season RPR 138+ 143+ high. Winner analysis: A very poor grade 1 race in my opinion. No horse meets all of the sig stats, however Mambonumberfive (16/1), Puturhandtogether (13/8) and Naturally Nimble (6/1) meet two and have satisfactory profiles. 

Manifesto Novices' Chase

Welcome to this year’s Aintree Festival significant horse racing stats. Just like the Cheltenham stats, the focus will be on the significant stats to help narrow down the field. Win Stats: Age: 6-8 = 93% Bred: IRE, FR = 87% Runs: 4-6 = 93% LTO: Avoid LTO winners = 100% Days: 20+ = 100% If ran at Chelt must be in Arkle not Browns = 100% OR: S.D = 149+ Mean = 151+ Season RPR: S.D = 155+ Mean = 158+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR 6-8 IRE Significant Stats: Age 6-7 Winner analysis: The sig stat is no use to us at all, so relying on the general stats, Jango Baie (11/4) and Croke Park (4/1) have the best profiles.