Significant Horse Racing Stats

Finally managed to review Friday’s racing and again the same pattern emerged, strong in the graded races, very average in the handicaps and next year my main focus will just be on graded races from a betting point of view. 10 sig stats on Friday and 7 upheld, including 2 in the Martin Pipe Handicap which seems to show the classier types at the higher end of the handicap do well. Minella Indo met 4/5 of the sig stats in the Gold Cup with the only one letting him down was LTO. Happy to see the strong sig stats such as days since last run and OR stand up as they do help narrow the field down. Away from the sig stats there has been a lot of talk about the Irish dominance at this years Festival. From my perspective and when briefly looking through the results I feel the Irish horses are simply more experienced in running in competitive graded races whilst the horses based over this side often run in small(er) uncompetitive graded events and get found out. I’d be interested in looking at f...

Thursday was an indifferent day from a stats and ante post perspective. There were 9 sig stats and 7 were upheld, the 2 that weren’t was in the Ryanair, and for next year, course winner will be downgraded to course placed form. The other was simply Allaho was 1lb short of a best RPR, fine margins I guess. Highlight of the day was Flooring Porter winning and meeting all 3 sig stats and I had a nice EW bet. Fusil Raffles picked us up some EW money in both markets and at one point looked like he may win. Once again, the handicaps weren’t great, although Mount Ida (suggested 9/1) who was well punted, did get up to win.   No major updates for Friday, except I’ve added Stattler (9/2) EW at enhanced place terms in the AB, the rest of the races are as they were. I’ll do one final review which will more than likely be over the weekend as I plan on having a few drinks whilst watching the races tomorrow. Good luck.    

Win Stats: Age: 5-7 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR = 92% Runs: 1-5 = 92% Days: 20-59 = 92% LTO: 1-5 = 92% Season:   Novice or 2 nd = 92% OR: 133-145 S.D 135-145 Weight: 11-1 – 11-10 Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR 6-7 IRE Significant Stats: OR 138+ Weight 11-3 Winner analysis: Novice or 2 nd season hurdlers do very well in this and they often show masses of improvement. I tend to prefer the horses towards the top end of the handicap as well (138+) and the two horses that stand out are Gentleman De Mee (9/2) and Fire Attack (11/1). Both EW plays with enhanced places. That’s it, another year of stats complete. I hope people have enjoyed them and used them to their advantage. Time to sit back and enjoy the next 2 days of racing! Enjoy and be lucky.

Win Stats: Age: 7-11 = 90% Runs: 0-4 = 95% Days: 20+ = 90% Distance: 24f+ = 95% OR: Mean 133+ Best OR: Mean 140+ SP: 16s and under Significant Stats: Distance 24f+ Winner analysis: Always happy to discount those that haven’t won over 24f+. Billaway (11/4), Bob and Co (4/1), It Came To Pass (7/1) and Stalker Wallace (9/1) have the best profiles. Billaway does have some ground to make up on last year’s winner ICTP, he has however won his last two races fairly comfortably. Bob and Co is one I’ve backed at much bigger prices ante post and I’m happy with my position, I am very concerned about the going though as his form is all on soft ground. Stalker Wallace was 4 th in this year and has a few lengths to find with Billaway and ICTP.  

Win Stats: Age: 5-8 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 91% Runs: 2-4 = 91% Days: 40+ = 82% Season: Novice – 3 rd = 91% OR: 134-158 S.D 137-147 Weight: 10-5 – 11-12 S.D 10-7 – 11-6 Significant Stats: Days 40+ Winner analysis: It appears those with a nice break do well in this race and trainers are happy to protect handicap marks. The Irish have a very strong hand and those that meet the sig stat and all of the generals include, Drop The Anchor (10/1), Champagne Gold (10/1), Ciel De Neige (20/1), Ganapathi (11/2), Éclair De Beaufeu (11/1), Saint D’Oroux (20/1), and Wolf Prince (33/1). Already backed Ganapathi, CDN, and EDB ante post so will look at the others in more detail.

Wednesday was a good day for ante post bets and for the significant stats. There were 8 sig stats today and all 8 were upheld, shame I completely ignored PTKO and dismissed her, hindsight however is a wonderful thing! Similar to last year the stats, especially the sig stats for the graded races really hold up well, whilst the handicaps seem to struggle, perhaps the changing nature of the Festival and how horses are prepared are factors. I must look into this once the dust has settled. Onto Thursday and there are no real updates as nothing to add in the Marsh Novices’ Chase or Pertemps. In the Ryanair Chase all horses analysed were declared despite a last-minute drift on Allaho suggesting otherwise, whilst in the Stayers all who we expected to be declared are and the two later handicaps are as they were.  As ever, good luck with all your bets.  

Win Stats: Age: 7-9 = 91% Bred: IRE, USA, GB = 100% Runs: 2-6 = 100% LTO: = Not a winner = 91% Days: 20+ = 100% OR: 130-149 S.D 136-142 Weight: 11-0 – 11-12 Significant Stats: No significant stats Winner analysis: A completely different race this year in my eyes without the amateurs riding and a race I will be throwing a few small EW darts at. The horses that meet the winner stats are Mount Ida (9/1), Plan Of Attack (9/1), Storm Control (16/1), Hold The Note (13/2), Milanford (20/1), Crievehill (33/1), Go Another One (33/1) and Cloudy Glen (33/1). Having looked through them and providing the ground stays good/soft I’ll be backing POA who finished 4 th last year, Mount Ida and Go Another One who I think is overpriced especially with his excellent jockey taking off a valuable 3lbs.