Friday Review

Finally managed to review Friday’s racing and again the same pattern emerged, strong in the graded races, very average in the handicaps and next year my main focus will just be on graded races from a betting point of view. 10 sig stats on Friday and 7 upheld, including 2 in the Martin Pipe Handicap which seems to show the classier types at the higher end of the handicap do well. Minella Indo met 4/5 of the sig stats in the Gold Cup with the only one letting him down was LTO. Happy to see the strong sig stats such as days since last run and OR stand up as they do help narrow the field down.

Away from the sig stats there has been a lot of talk about the Irish dominance at this years Festival. From my perspective and when briefly looking through the results I feel the Irish horses are simply more experienced in running in competitive graded races whilst the horses based over this side often run in small(er) uncompetitive graded events and get found out. I’d be interested in looking at field sizes and the strength of competition in more detail.

Lastly, Aintree is just around the corner and I will be completing win stats for most of the races across the three days so keep an eye out. 


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Supreme Novices' Hurdle

EW Stats: Age: 5-6 = 92% Bred: IRE, FR = 85% Runs: 2-4 = 94% Hurdle wins: 1-3 = 92% Won on a left-handed track: = 79% LTO: 1-2 = 90% Days: 20+ = 94% OR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 148+ Best RPR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 148+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR 5-7 IRE/GB S.P: Mean 10s and under EW Analysis : At the moment it is looking a competitive race, more so now that Ballyburn is being aimed at the Gallaghers. Tullyhill (4/1) has the strongest EW profile, and I would expect Paul Townend to take the ride and try and make all. Slade Steel (6/1) has the next best profile and providing the ground does not dry up too much looks a fair EW shout. Win Stats: Age: 5-6 = 94% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Days: 20+ = 88% Runs: 2-4 = 94% LTO: 1st = 88% Grade: 1-listed = 93% 1-2 = 75% Hurdle wins: 2-3 = 88% Won left-handed: = 81% OR: S.D = 144+ Mean = 149+ RPR: S.D = 145+ Mean = 149+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR/GB 6-7 IRE SP Mean: = 7's and under Significant Stats: RPR 145+ high sig 151+ SP 12s and under Positive correlat
Read more

Grand National Handicap Chase

Win Stats: Age: 8-11 = 90% Bred: IRE, FR, = 95%  Days: 21-84. S.D. 21-52 Runs: 3-6 = 95% LTO: 1-5 = 88% Chase Runs: 1+ = 100% Distance 24f+ = 90% BRPR: 144+ Mean 154+ OR: 136-160 S.D. 139-154 Weight: 10-3 – 11-9 S.D. 10-5 – 11-3 Crosstab Age/Bred: FR 9-11 IRE 8-11 Significant Stats: Runs 3+ Winner analysis: Quite a few horses meet the sig stat but when applying the general stats I’ve produced a shortlist of Corach Rambler (8/1), Ain’t That A Shame (50/1), Vanillier (12/1), Galia Des Liteaux (28/1), Panda Boy (11/1) and I Am Maximus (15/2).
Read more

Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase

EW Stats: Age: 5-8 = 98% Bred: IRE, FR = 85% Distance: = 97% Runs: 2-5 = 88% LTO: 1-3 = 92% Days: 21+ = 97% Chase wins: 1-3 = 89% Won left-handed: = 86% OR: S.D = 145+ Mean = 153+ RPR: S.D = 150+ Mean = 158+ Hurdles OR: S.D. 134+ Mean 146+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-8 FR 6-8 Other EW Analysis : There does not appear to be an obvious superstar in the field which means it is looking a competitive Arkle. Gaelic Warrior (4/1) has been well backed over the last 24 hours due to Rich Ricci’s comments however I would be genuinely concerned about his tendency to jump right, even more so on the old course which is used for the first two days. Il Etait Temps (9/2) has the best EW profile along with Facile Vega (12/1), however the latter looks unlikely to run in this race at present, if he did though I will be backing EW. IET won at the DRF last time out, but again, I am not sure the course will suit but I can see him staying on for place money so looks a solid play. The next
Read more