Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

EW Stats:

Age: 5-7 = 100% 5-6 – 90%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 95%

Runs: 2-6 = 95% 2-5 = 92%

LTO: 1-3 = 97% 1-2 = 92%

Days: 21+ = 92%

Distance: 20/21f = 77%

OR: S.D = 138+ Mean = 146+

RPR: S.D = 142+ Mean = 148+

RPR Race: S.D. = 147+ Mean = 152+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR 6-7 IRE/GB

EW Analysis:

Lots of general stats for this race to use to narrow down the field. I originally analysed the race a week or so ago and Bob Olinger was 4/1 – 9/2 and what looked a good EW price as he meets all of the stats, unfortunately Jamie Codds comments on a preview night meant those odds disappeared quickly. Bravemansgame (7/2) also meets all of the EW stats was is just a fraction too short. The only other horse away from the market principles that meets most of the general stats is Metier (10/1), however his target appears to the Supreme Novices.

Win Stats:

Age: 5-6 = 100%

Bred: IRE, FR = 90%

Runs: 1-5 = 95%

Days: 21+ = 90%

LTO: 1-2 = 95%

Distance: 20/21f = 90%

OR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 148+

RPR: S.D = 144+ Mean = 150+

RPR Race: S.D. 149+ Mean 155+

Significant Stats:

RPR 144+ high 152+

RPR Race 149+ high 152+

Distance

Bred IRE or FR

Positive correlation between position, Bred IRE/FR, RPR (149+), RPR Race (149+) & distance

Winner analysis:

This looks a cracking race on paper if the front three get there safely and fortunately I’ve got a decent ante post position on both Bob Olinger and Gaillard Du Mesnil. 

Focussing on the sig stats and correlation brings us straight to Bob Olinger, Bravemansgame and GDM as all three meet them and I’d be surprised if the winner doesn’t come from one of them. Bravemansgame meets all of the general stats and has produced the best RPR (157) and I’ll be looking to add him on the day. Bob Olinger (RPR 152) has looked good in all his starts and hits the high sig stats and has always been well regarded by his stable so I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him. GDM (RPR 151) brings grade 1 form to the track and showed he possess stamina and speed last time out and he trained by the right man for the occasion. Nothing else really comes into the reckoning based upon the stats.    

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