Supreme Novices' Hurdle

EW Stats:

Age: 5-6 = 91%

Bred: IRE, FR = 85%

Runs: 2-4 = 92%

Hurdle wins: 1-3 = 91%

Won on a left-handed track: = 80%

LTO: 1-2 = 89% 1st = 76%

Grade: 1 - listed = 78%

Days: 20+ = 93%

OR: S.D = 142+ Mean = 148+

Best RPR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 147+

S.P: Mean 9s and under

EW Analysis:

Talk The Talk (6/1) possesses a very strong each-way statistical profile. If connections opt for this race rather than the Turners, he should be very competitive. Another with a favourable each-way profile is Sober Glory (14/1), who produced an impressive RPR on his latest start, albeit achieved in heavy ground conditions.

Win Stats:

Age: 5-6 = 94%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100%

Days: 20+ = 89%

Runs: 2-4 = 94%

LTO: 1-2 = 94% 1st = 83%

Grade: 1-listed = 94% 1-2 = 82%

Hurdle wins: 2-3 = 89%

Won left-handed: = 83%

OR: S.D = 144+ Mean = 149+

RPR: S.D = 145+ Mean = 150+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR/GB 6-7 IRE

SP Mean: = 7's and under

Significant Stats:

RPR 145+ high sig 150

SP 12s and under

Grade 1-2

Positive correlation between Pos - RPR (145) and SP (7's under)

Winner analysis:

The yearly reminder that OR’s and RPRs need double checking when decs are made as they can change to what they are currently.

Focusing first on the significant statistics, Old Park Star (9/4) and Talk The Talk are the only runners to satisfy all three key indicators. Old Park Star has an outstanding win profile and was highly impressive last time out when winning a Grade 2 by 18 lengths. Nicky Henderson appears to hold him in very high regard, and he looks a deserving favourite. Talk The Talk brings proven Grade 1 form and should be well suited by a strong pace and the stiff uphill finish.

The much-discussed Mighty Park (10/3) meets two of the significant indicators (RPR and current price), but several general statistical negatives remain. These include his number of runs this season, hurdle win count, lack of a graded victory, and the fact he has yet to race on a left-handed track, leaving some questions to answer. He is, however, trained by a genius!

Other market contenders such as El Cairos (6/1) and MyDaddyPaddy (10/1) also present negatives within both the general and significant statistical profiles.