Ryanair Chase

EW Stats:

Age: 6-10 = 100% 7-10 = 90%

Bred: IRE, FR= 93%

Runs: 2-6 = 98%

Distance: = 93%

Days: 21+ = 93%

OR: S.D = 156+ Mean = 162+

Season RPR: S.D = 161+ Mean = 167+

Best RPR: S.D = 163+ Mean 169+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-10 FR 8-10 IRE

EW Analysis:

Quite a lot of horses are close together on the stats and on form so it’s a tough race to call. Min (6/1) and Imperial Aura (13/2) have the best profiles, closely followed by Allaho (5/1).

Win Stats:

Age: 6-10 = 100% 7-10 = 93%

Bred: IRE, FR = 93%

Runs: 2-4 = 100%

Course winner: = 93%

Days: 21+ = 100%

Distance: = 100%

OR: S.D = 158+ Mean = 165+

Season RPR: S.D = 164+ Mean = 170+

Best RPR: S.D = 167+ Mean = 172+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-10 FR 8-10 IRE

Significant Stats:

OR 160+ High 165+

Season RPR 164+ High 169 +

Best RPR 167+

Course winner

Correlation between position, OR (165), SRPR (169), BRPR (170), and course winner

Winner analysis:

Previous course winners have done well in this race since it was introduced at the Festival and it’s a good starting point, however don’t dismiss horses who have ran well at the course as well. Last years winner Min meets all of the significant stats and has a solid looking profile again. His last run can be easily forgiven, because as soon as he made the mistake over 2 miles he was quickly pulled up and looked after, he also appears better over this distance now as well and I’ve backed EW. Imperial Aura also meets the significant stats and has the same general profile as Min, my biggest concern is that I’m not sure he is quite at grade 1 level, I may be proven wrong though! Saint Calvados (9/1) who finished runner up last year should appreciate the drop back in trip and I’d expect another good run this year, whilst I’ve not backed him he is on my radar to look at again. The last horse to meet the significant stats is Mister Fisher (8/1) and he has been steadily backed over the last couple of weeks (16s – 8s), again he is another horse I will look at again especially if we have good ground which he appears to be suited to. Allaho looks like he has been crying out for this trip after struggling to stay over 3 miles and will no doubt prove popular however he has yet to hit an RPR good enough to win so I have reservations. Finally, I have backed Melon EW at bigger prices earlier in the season, however his general stats profile isn’t great but he has finished second at four previous Festivals so all is not lost. 

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