Michael O'Sullivan Supreme Novices' Hurdle

EW Stats:

Age: 5-6 = 92%

Bred: IRE, FR = 86%

Runs: 2-4 = 92%

Hurdle wins: 1-3 = 92%

Won on a left-handed track: = 78%

LTO: 1-2 = 88%

Days: 20+ = 94%

OR: S.D = 142+ Mean = 148+

Best RPR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 148+

S.P: Mean 9s and under

EW Analysis:

Romeo Coolio (5/1) has the best profile for EW purposes. Others which have strong EW profiles include Salvator Mundi (8/1), Tripoli Flyer (20/1) and Karbau (20/1). The latter could be anything and at 20/1 at enhanced places could tempt people.

Win Stats:

Age: 5-6 = 94%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100%

Days: 20+ = 88%

Runs: 2-4 = 94%

LTO: 1-2 = 94%

Grade: 1-listed = 94% 1-2 = 81%

Hurdle wins: 2-3 = 88%

Won left-handed: = 82%

OR: S.D = 144+ Mean = 149+

RPR: S.D = 145+ Mean = 149+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR/GB 6-7 IRE

SP Mean: = 7's and under

Significant Stats:

RPR 145+ high sig 1510

SP 12s and under

Positive correlation between Pos - RPR (145) and SP (7's under)

Winner analysis:

The yearly reminder that OR’s and RPRs need double checking when decs are made as they can change to what they are currently.

Those towards the head of the market are often the ones to concentrate on with an average SP of 7s over the years. Kopek Des Bordes (4/5) looked mightily impressive last time out however the short odds wouldn’t be for everyone, he is however, the only horse to meet the high sig stat of 150+ RPR. Romeo Coolio meets the sig stat and the correlation (be aware that price can obviously drift) and has course form which is always a bonus. Workahead (10/1) meets the 145+ RPR and should go well for last years winning trainer. William Munny (12/1) has improved with every run and his trainer has been working towards this race all season and I can see him being bang there jumping the last. Finally, Salvator Mundi is the only other horse to meet the sig stat, his last run however didn’t impress many people.

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