Ultima Handicap Chase

EW Stats:

Age: 6-9 – 94% 7-9 = 85%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100%

Runs: 2-5 = 87%

Distance: 24f+ = 78%

Days: 20+ = 91%

OR: 129-155 S.D 138-149

Weight: S.D 10-6 – 11-6

Best RPR Race 142+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-9 FR 7-9 IRE/GB

EW Analysis:

There will be plenty of bookies going extra places so shop around. Sequestered (20/1), Famous Bridge (18/1), Malina Girl(12/1) and The Changing Man (6/1) have lovely EW profiles. 

Win Stats:

Age: 7-11 = 94% 7-9 = 83%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE = 89%

Runs: 2-5 = 94%

LTO: 1-5 = 89%

Distance: 24f+ = 89%

OR: 129-155 S.D 137-149

Weight: S.D = 10-5 – 11-6

RPR Race:  142+ 

Significant Stats:

LTO 1-5

Days 0-59

Winner analysis:

The four horses above also meet the two sig stats and the win stats. Whistle Stop Tour (9/1) and Katate Dori (7/1) also meet the two sig stats and have good looking win profiles. Famous Bridge ran well for a long way in this race last year before tiring on the heavy going and looks a decent EW shout. The Irish have a terrible record in the race but I keep getting drawn to Sequestered, the novice Whistle Stop Tour should run well, and The Changing Man comes into the race having a recorded an impressive win LTO.  

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