Stayers' Hurdle

EW Stats:

Age: 5-11 = 100% 6-9 = 85%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98%

Runs: 2-5 = 90%

Distance: = 80%

Days: 21+ = 97%

LTO: 1-4 = 95%

Grade: 1 or 2 = 90%

OR: S.D = 153+ Mean = 161+

Season RPR: S.D = 154+ Mean = 161+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-9 FR 6-11 IRE/GB

EW Analysis:

The top two in the market have the best profiles and some people will be happy to back EW at 3/1. Away from them Flooring Porter (12/1) and Roksana are next best, the latter being a doubtful runner however.

Win Stats:

Age: 6-9 = 100%

Bred: IRE, FR = 100%

Runs: 2-5 = 90%

Days: 21+ = 95%

Distance: = 80%

LTO: 1-4 = 95% 1-2 = 85%

Grade: 1 or 2 = 100%

OR: S.D = 156+ Mean = 164+

Season RPR: S.D = 158+ Mean = 165+

Significant Stats:

OR 158+ High 164+

Season RPR 158+ High 164 +

Runs 2-5 high 2-4

Correlation between position, OR (164), SRPR (164), and runs (2-4)

Winner analysis:

In the last 20 years this race has been won by a previous grade 1 or 2 winner so that is a great place to start and it should help to narrow down the field. Lisnagar Oscar blew some of the significant stats last year however in previous years they have been a very useful guide.

Five horses meet the significant stats, Paisley Park (10/3), Thyme Hill (10/3), Sire De Berlais (8/1), Flooring Porter and Roksana. Paisley Park and Thyme Hill are currently one a piece this season and are the best of the British and it will take a good one from Ireland to beat them. We know Paisley Park will be staying on strongly up the hill and I expect Thyme Hill to be travelling well turning the corner and Dickie to hold on a fraction longer this time before he says go. In terms of the general stats Paisley Park just shades it from Thyme Hill. Sire De Berlais has won the Pertemps the last two years and obviously handles the course and should be staying on past rivals and I couldn’t put anyone off backing him at all. Finally, Flooring Porter who has done nothing but improve and as 6-year-old should still have more to come needs respect and comes out well on the significant and general stats.

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