Wellchild Cheltenham Gold Cup

EW Stats:

Age: 7-10 = 92%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98% IRE, FR = 88%

Runs: 1-5 = 98%  

LTO: 1-6 = 88%

Days: 21+ = 97%

Festival experience: = 78%

OR: S.D = 158+ Mean = 167+

Best RPR: S.D = 164+ Mean = 172+

RPR Race: S.D = 168+ Mean = 174+ (within 5lbs)

Crosstab Age/Bred: 7-9 FR 7-10 IRE/GB

EW Analysis:

Usually a strong trend race and it pays to focus on particular trends. A Plus Tard (6/1), Kemboy (14/1), Frodon (14/1), and Lostintranslation (33/1) have the best EW profiles.  

Win Stats:

Age: 6-9 = 100% 7-9 = 95%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 95%

Runs: 1-4 = 95%

LTO: 1-2 = 90% 1st = 80%

Days: 21+ = 100%

Grade: 1-2 = 95% 1 = 80%

Festival Experience: = 90%

OR: S.D = 165+ Mean = 171+

Best RPR: S.D = 166+ Mean = 174+

RPR Race: S.D = 172+ Mean = 178+

Significant Stats:

OR 165+

Grade 1-2 High grade 1

RPR Race 172+ (within 5lbs so 167 best RPR min)

Days 20+ prefer 40+

LTO 1-2 high 1st

Correlation between position, OR (165), Grade 1 - 2, and Best RPR (172)

Winner analysis:

As well as the significant stats I focus on horses who have ran at the Festival previously, and horses who come here fresh with at least a 40-day layoff but preferably 60+ days. Al Boum Photo (5/2) meets all of the significant stats, the correlation and has had the same preparation as the previous two years and I think people underestimate him. He ticks every box and is looking join a select list of horses to win three Gold Cups. A Plus Tard is a horse I’m keen on and I have backed him at bigger prices shortly after his Christmas win, he also meets all of the significant stats and correlation and with a clear round I'm hoping he will be bang there at the finish. Champ (5/1) has many stats in his favour, however the quickish turnaround is a negative for me as is his unusual preparation. Kemboy (5 sig stats and correlation) won well last time out, however I just wonder if that was his target and that he was primed for that day, his Cheltenham form is also a bit suspect. Frodon does nothing but surprise people and he meets all the significant stats and at the price I can see people playing him EW, I think his King George form however lacks substance to win this. Native River (16/1) is the final horse to meet all of the key stats, however age is against him. He would need a deluge and the ground to turn heavy for me to take an interest.  

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