Wellchild Cheltenham Gold Cup
EW Stats:
Age:
7-10 = 92%
Bred:
IRE, FR, GB = 98% IRE, FR = 88%
Runs:
1-5 = 98%
LTO:
1-6 = 88%
Days:
21+ = 97%
Festival
experience: = 78%
OR:
S.D = 158+ Mean = 167+
Best
RPR: S.D = 164+ Mean = 172+
RPR
Race: S.D = 168+ Mean = 174+ (within 5lbs)
Crosstab
Age/Bred: 7-9 FR 7-10 IRE/GB
EW Analysis:
Usually
a strong trend race and it pays to focus on particular trends. A Plus Tard (6/1),
Kemboy (14/1), Frodon (14/1), and Lostintranslation (33/1) have the best EW
profiles.
Win Stats:
Age:
6-9 = 100% 7-9 = 95%
Bred:
IRE, FR, GB = 95%
Runs:
1-4 = 95%
LTO:
1-2 = 90% 1st = 80%
Days:
21+ = 100%
Grade:
1-2 = 95% 1 = 80%
Festival
Experience: = 90%
OR:
S.D = 165+ Mean = 171+
Best
RPR: S.D = 166+ Mean = 174+
RPR
Race: S.D = 172+ Mean = 178+
Significant Stats:
OR
165+
Grade
1-2 High grade 1
RPR
Race 172+ (within 5lbs so 167 best RPR min)
Days
20+ prefer 40+
LTO
1-2 high 1st
Correlation
between position, OR (165), Grade 1 - 2, and Best RPR (172)
Winner analysis:
As
well as the significant stats I focus on horses who have ran at the Festival
previously, and horses who come here fresh with at least a 40-day layoff
but preferably 60+ days. Al Boum Photo (5/2) meets all of the significant stats,
the correlation and has had the same preparation as the previous two years and I think
people underestimate him. He ticks every box and is looking join a select list of
horses to win three Gold Cups. A Plus Tard is a horse I’m keen on and I have
backed him at bigger prices shortly after his Christmas win, he also meets all
of the significant stats and correlation and with a clear round I'm hoping he will be bang there at the finish. Champ (5/1) has many stats in his
favour, however the quickish turnaround is a negative for me as is his unusual preparation.
Kemboy (5 sig stats and correlation) won well last time out, however I just
wonder if that was his target and that he was primed for that day, his Cheltenham
form is also a bit suspect. Frodon does nothing but surprise people and he
meets all the significant stats and at the price I can see people playing him
EW, I think his King George form however lacks substance to win this. Native River (16/1)
is the final horse to meet all of the key stats, however age is against him. He
would need a deluge and the ground to turn heavy for me to take an interest.
Comments
Post a Comment