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Showing posts from November, 2021

Ladbrokes Trophy Chase 3:00 Newbury

Win Stats: Age: 6-8 = 90%  LTO: 1-6 = 90% 1-3 = 80% Runs: = 0-1 = 90% Distance: 24f = 90% OR: 136-174 S.D. 141-159 Weight: S.D. 10-7 - 11-8 SP: 12s or under = 85% Significant Stats: SP 12s or under Winner analysis: The market is a significant guide to this race and it very rarely goes to any horse above 12/1 so it seems prudent to focus on those at the head of the betting.  The horses with the best general profile are Eklat De Rire (7/2) who I backed earlier in the week, Ontheropes (13/2), Enrilo (13/2), Potterman (18/1), Remastered (12/1) and Demachine (16/1). I am currently looking to add Enrilo EW to my EDR bet and potentially Remastered, however the stable form concerns me.  

Ascot Hurdle 2:40 Ascot

Win Stats: Age: 4-7 = 92% LTO: 1-2 = 92% Runs: = 0-1 = 92% OR: S.D = 152+ Mean = 157+ Grade 1 or 2 winner = 92% Significant Stats: LTO 1-2 OR 150+ High 157+ Grade 1-2 Winner analysis: This race usually goes to a proven grade 1 or 2 winner with a rating of at least 150+. The fav, Buzz has to prove he is capable at this level and 5/4 seems short to me. Last years winner Song For Someone (13/2) is proven here and has a solid profile, whilst Goshen (7/2) also has a solid profile, however I'm not sure I'd be willing to back him! Not a betting heat for me and one I will just happily watch. 

Ascot Chase 2:05 Ascot

Win Stats: Age: 6-9 = 100% 6-8 = 92% Bred: IRE, FR, = 100% LTO: 1-5 = 92% Days: 20+ = 92% Runs: = 0-1 100% Grade 1 winner = 83% Distance: 20/21f = 92% OR: S.D = 156+ Mean = 165+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-9 FR 7-9 IRE Significant Stats: Days 20+ Runs 0-1 Winner analysis: For me this race revolves around Defi Du Seuil (7/2) and whether he returns to his old form. If he does he should win this especially getting 6lbs from Dashel Drasher and Master  Tommytucker. DDS has the best stats profile for the race and his trainer is hoping for a good run and has suggested that the horse is in good form at home. Furthermore, his trainer is hoping a wind op over the summer will have helped and at the prices I'm happy to have a bet.  

Stayers Handicap Hurdle 2:25 Haydock

Win Stats: Age: 5-7 = 92% 5-6 = 83% LTO: 1-6 = 92% Runs: = 0-2 = 92% Distance: 20-24f = 92% 20/21f = 83% Avoid previous group winners OR: 132-149 S.D. 136-146 Weight: 10-9 - 11-12 S.D. 10-11 - 11-9 Best RPR: 138-155 Crosstab Age/Bred: 5 FR 5-6 Other Significant Stats: OR 136+ Weight 10-11+ Winner analysis: Horses towards the top of weights tend to fair best so I will be focusing primarily on them (horse no's 1-7). Orbys Legend (13/2) has an excellent profile for the race and the step up in trip should see further improvement and he looks a solid EW bet. If The Cap Fits (14/1) has also caught my eye, whilst he doesn't have the best general profile for this race I think he is fairly well treated and stays the trip well and looks another solid EW bet. 

Betfair Chase 3:00 Haydock

Win Stats: Age: 6-10 = 93% Distance: 3m+ = 87% Runs: 0-1 = 93% Days: 20+ = 93% Grade 1 winner = 87% OR: S.D = 161+ Mean = 170+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-9 FR 7-10 IRE/GB Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: A Plus Tard (6/4) is clear on the stats and ratings and should take all the beating if fully wound up for his first run of the season. Haydock is a tough jumping course so he will need to be fully fit especially against BDM who will be ready to go to try and win this yet again. Small bet on the fav. 

Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase 2:15 Cheltenham

First jumps race to be published for the season and I intend on publishing the main races throughout the jumps season, time permitting. Competitive handicap to start it all off but it is a race with a strong stats/trends record. Win Stats: Age: 7-9 = 85% Runs: 0-2 = 100% Bred: Fr/IRE = 92% Distance: 20/21f= 85% LTO: 1-6 = 85% OR: 134-159 S.D. 138-152 Weight: 10-2 - 11-11 S.D. 10-4 - 11-4 Best RPR: 138-164 Best RPR at least 6lb above current OR is a positive Significant Stats: No significant stats Winner analysis: When I first analysed the race using the stats a couple of weeks back Midnight Shadow met quite a few of the stronger ones so I backed ante post, I am however less confident now the weights have gone up, but I've secured the value so happy to let it ride. Spiritofthegames (25/1) who finished 2nd off a 4lb higher mark last year has a strong profile and despite being the stables second string on jockey bookings I'd expect a good run and at t