Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase 2:15 Cheltenham

First jumps race to be published for the season and I intend on publishing the main races throughout the jumps season, time permitting. Competitive handicap to start it all off but it is a race with a strong stats/trends record.

Win Stats:

Age: 7-9 = 85%

Runs: 0-2 = 100%

Bred: Fr/IRE = 92%

Distance: 20/21f= 85%

LTO: 1-6 = 85%

OR: 134-159 S.D. 138-152

Weight: 10-2 - 11-11 S.D. 10-4 - 11-4

Best RPR: 138-164

Best RPR at least 6lb above current OR is a positive

Significant Stats:

No significant stats

Winner analysis:

When I first analysed the race using the stats a couple of weeks back Midnight Shadow met quite a few of the stronger ones so I backed ante post, I am however less confident now the weights have gone up, but I've secured the value so happy to let it ride.

Spiritofthegames (25/1) who finished 2nd off a 4lb higher mark last year has a strong profile and despite being the stables second string on jockey bookings I'd expect a good run and at the price I'm happy to have an EW bet especially with enhanced places. Zanza (10/1) also has a strong looking profile and is officially 4lb well in judged on his Haldon Cup run and providing this doesn't come too soon also looks a good EW bet. This horse appeared unlucky a couple of times last year and I think he has a decent prize in him at some point this season. Two other horses have similar profiles to Zanza, Up The Straight (22/1) and Manofthemountain (25/1) and both are worth looking at closer. Indeed, UTS has a sea of blue against him on Oddschecker at the time of writing, so someone is backing him. 

I have analysed a couple of other races tomorrow, but they don't appear to be strong stats races, but out of interest Magistrato (7/4) looks the best that did show up. 


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