2000 Guineas Stakes

Win Stats:

Bred: IRE, GB, USA = 95%

Season Runs: 0-1 = 100%

Days: 20+ = 90%

Career Runs: 2-6 = 100%

LTO: 1-3 = 100%

Group: 1-3 = 90%

OR: S.D = 112+ Mean = 118+

Stallion index: 7.4 – 11.7 S.D. 8.6 – 11.7

Significant Stats:

OR 112+

Days 20+

SR 0-1

CR 2-5

Group 1-3

Stallion index 8.7+ 8.9+ preferred 

LTO 1-2

Positive correlation between pos - OR (112), days (20+), SR (0-1) and group (1-3)

Winner analysis:

Seven significant stats and a strong correlation to focus on. The fav Native Trial meets 5 sig stats, his negatives are days since last run and stallion index. The latter stat is important and suggests that NT has to prove he stays a mile at group 1 level. I'm not interested in taking even money to find out. His stablemate Coroebus (11/2) meets all 7 sig stats and the correlation and I think he has a big chance. If his draw doesn't hinder him he should be thereabouts, his stable is in red hot form, and the form of his 2 year old races looks strong, and I've been backing him EW for the last couple of weeks. Luxembourg (11/2) is another horse that meets all 7 sig stats and the correlation and looks to be O'Briens first string judging by jockey bookings. He is a group 1 winner as a 2 year old and the stables form is also excellent, the only minor concern would be that he is bred for middle distances, but with a strong pace this may play into his strengths. He is another horse I've been backing EW for a couple of weeks. Finally, Point Lonsdale (14/1) is the only other horse to meet all of the sig stats and the correlation, and I wouldn't put anyone off backing EW especially with extra place terms.  

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