Grand National

Win Stats:

Age: 8-11 = 95%

Bred: IRE, FR, = 90% IRE = 75%

Days: 20-84. S.D. 20-52

Runs: 3-6 = 100%

Chase Runs: 1-5 = 95%

Distance 24f+ = 95%

Running Style: Prom or Mid Div = 90%

OR: 136-160 S.D. 138-153

Weight: 10-3 – 11-9 S.D. 10-5 – 11-3

Crosstab Age/Bred: FR 9-11 IRE 8-11

Significant Stats:

Runs 3+ High 4+

Winner analysis:

I generally rule out horses who haven't had at least 3 runs since Sept as it is the strongest stat that holds up year after year. The horses that meet the sig stat and all of the generals are Good Boy Bobby (33/1), Top Ville Ben (100/1), Cloth Cap (25/1), Death Duty (50/1) and Dingo Dollar (66/1). 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Supreme Novices' Hurdle

EW Stats: Age: 5-6 = 92% Bred: IRE, FR = 85% Runs: 2-4 = 94% Hurdle wins: 1-3 = 92% Won on a left-handed track: = 79% LTO: 1-2 = 90% Days: 20+ = 94% OR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 148+ Best RPR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 148+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR 5-7 IRE/GB S.P: Mean 10s and under EW Analysis : At the moment it is looking a competitive race, more so now that Ballyburn is being aimed at the Gallaghers. Tullyhill (4/1) has the strongest EW profile, and I would expect Paul Townend to take the ride and try and make all. Slade Steel (6/1) has the next best profile and providing the ground does not dry up too much looks a fair EW shout. Win Stats: Age: 5-6 = 94% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Days: 20+ = 88% Runs: 2-4 = 94% LTO: 1st = 88% Grade: 1-listed = 93% 1-2 = 75% Hurdle wins: 2-3 = 88% Won left-handed: = 81% OR: S.D = 144+ Mean = 149+ RPR: S.D = 145+ Mean = 149+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR/GB 6-7 IRE SP Mean: = 7's and under Significant Stats: RPR 145+ high sig 151+ SP 12s and under Positive correlat
Read more

Grand National Handicap Chase

Win Stats: Age: 8-11 = 90% Bred: IRE, FR, = 95%  Days: 21-84. S.D. 21-52 Runs: 3-6 = 95% LTO: 1-5 = 88% Chase Runs: 1+ = 100% Distance 24f+ = 90% BRPR: 144+ Mean 154+ OR: 136-160 S.D. 139-154 Weight: 10-3 – 11-9 S.D. 10-5 – 11-3 Crosstab Age/Bred: FR 9-11 IRE 8-11 Significant Stats: Runs 3+ Winner analysis: Quite a few horses meet the sig stat but when applying the general stats I’ve produced a shortlist of Corach Rambler (8/1), Ain’t That A Shame (50/1), Vanillier (12/1), Galia Des Liteaux (28/1), Panda Boy (11/1) and I Am Maximus (15/2).
Read more

Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase

EW Stats: Age: 5-8 = 98% Bred: IRE, FR = 85% Distance: = 97% Runs: 2-5 = 88% LTO: 1-3 = 92% Days: 21+ = 97% Chase wins: 1-3 = 89% Won left-handed: = 86% OR: S.D = 145+ Mean = 153+ RPR: S.D = 150+ Mean = 158+ Hurdles OR: S.D. 134+ Mean 146+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-8 FR 6-8 Other EW Analysis : There does not appear to be an obvious superstar in the field which means it is looking a competitive Arkle. Gaelic Warrior (4/1) has been well backed over the last 24 hours due to Rich Ricci’s comments however I would be genuinely concerned about his tendency to jump right, even more so on the old course which is used for the first two days. Il Etait Temps (9/2) has the best EW profile along with Facile Vega (12/1), however the latter looks unlikely to run in this race at present, if he did though I will be backing EW. IET won at the DRF last time out, but again, I am not sure the course will suit but I can see him staying on for place money so looks a solid play. The next
Read more