Significant Horse Racing Stats

Firstly, I would like to say thank you for the amount visitors to the page and for some of the messages I received. Secondly, I can say I thoroughly enjoyed watching Royal Ascot this year, despite my preference for the NH and feel like I am getting a better understanding of the key significant stats for flat racing. This year I completed the stats for RA early and used them to have quite a few ante post bets, some of which came in which ensured a nice healthy profit. The significant stats this year performed exceptionally well helping to narrow down the fields. I appreciate that sometimes a fair number of horses meet the significant stats but every little helps, especially in big field races. In total there were 34 sig stats and 29 were upheld, 2-year-old races were the weakest with three races not meeting the sig stats. The Gold Cup winner missed a sig stat, however, as pointed in the write up, Kyprios had not attempted 16f+ so had no chance to meet it, whilst the Britannia handicap...

Win Stats: Age: 4-6 = 89% Days: 0-59 = 88% Distance: = 89% LTO: 1-6 = 89% OR: S.D 96-106 Weight: S.D 8-12 – 9-7 Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: 12 horses meet all of the general stats showing what a wide open race this is and how competitive it always is. Silver Samurai (7/1) comes here in fine form and is top rated with Advanced Rating (rating I receive) so I've backed EW. First Folio (16/1) has some strong 3 yr old form and I'm tempted to back EW, whilst I will also look to back one with a high draw, possibly Blackrod (9/1) or Popmaster (16/1) but I will look back through. 

Win Stats: Age: 3-7 = 100% Runs: 1+ = 95% Days: 0-59 = 90% Group: 1-listed = 100% 1-3 = 90% Distance: = 95% OR: S.D 111+ Mean 116+ Significant Stats: Group 1-3 Winner analysis: Most horses have won at group 1-3 level and meet the sig stat. A Case Of You (28/1) and Alcohol Free (25/1) have the strongest general profiles and I've backed EW with enhanced places. I have backed Creative Force ante post but I'm concerned about the drift and his stall 1 draw. 

Win Stats: Age: 4-6 = 100% Runs: 1-3 = 90% Group: 1-3 = 95% Distance: = 85% OR: S.D 113+ Mean 116+ LTO: 1-3 = 90% Significant Stats: OR 114+ Winner analysis: The fav Hurricane Lane (5/6) meets the sig stats and is clear on the ratings and if fully wound up for his first run should win. Broome (11/2) meets the sig stat and is the obvious danger and looks an EW bet to nothing. Finally Mostahdaf (10/1) who is stepping up in trip also meets the sig stat.  

Win Stats: Runs: 1-6 = 95% Days: 0-59 = 89% Group: Avoid group 1 = 100% OR: S.D 103+ Mean 109+ Draw: 4-20 Significant Stats: OR 109+ Winner analysis: Noble Truth (9/2), Star Gilrs Aalmal (5/1), Dubawi Legend (10/1), Alfalia (10/1), Rocchigiani (14/1), and Toimy Son (22/1) all meet the sig stat and have similar profiles. I currently don't have a strong view on any of them and will need to have another look through the form this morning. 

Win Stats: Runs: 1-2 = 100% Days: 10-40 = 100% Pref 16-40 LTO: 1-5 = 100% 1-3 = 90% Sire Index: 8.1+ Pref 8.6+ Dams Sire Index: 7+ Pref 7.8+ Best RPR: Mean 86+ Significant Stats: Runs 1-2 Sire index 8.6+ High 9.8+ Winner analysis: Four horses meet both the significant stats and have strong general profiles. Alfred Munning (11/10) who looked impressive last time out, Alzahir (9/1) who should have learnt a lot from his debut run, Finn's Charm (16/1) who I think will like the ground and One World (20/1). 

Win Stats: Runs: 1-6 = 95% Days: 0-59 = 95% Bred: GB, IRE, USA = 100% Distance: 8-12f = 95% OR: Mean 106+ Significant Stats: OR 100+ Pref 109+ Winner analysis: There are two horses I like based on the sig stat, the fav Changingoftheguard (15/8) and Dark Moon Rising (28/1) who I think is overpriced based on the Dante form. 

Win Stats: Runs: 1-3 = 90% Days: 0-39 = 80% OR: S.D. 86-103 A huge S.D. Weight: S.D 8-4 – 9-4 Significant Stats: Days 0-39 Winner analysis: Not a great stats race and I'll possibly throw a few quid EW on Kings Joy (25/1) and Espresso (28/1) who both come out fairly well on the limited stats available.  

Win Stats: Runs: 1-5 = 95%% Days: 0-59 = 95% Group: 1-3 = 95% Distance: 7-8f = 95% LTO: 1-6 = 90% Ran in IRE/FR/GB Guineas: = 90% OR: S.D. 108+ Mean 112+ Significant Stats: OR 109+ Group 1-3 Winner analysis: A number of horses meet both significant stats and they will be my main focus when going through the card in more detail. When applying both the sig stats with the general stats, Cachet (11/2) comes out best, closely followed by Mangoustine (10/1) and Pizza Bianca (16/1).  I have previously backed Prosperous Voyage and I think the stiff track will suit her and I think she will go close. The fav, Inspiral will need to be exceptional to win this first time out and at her price I'll be avoiding her.  

Win Stats: Age: 4-5 = 94% Runs: 1+ = 94% Days: 0-59 = 89% Distance: 10-12f = 94% LTO: 1-6 = 89% OR: S.D. 92-101 Weight: S.D 8-12 – 9-7 Draw: 6-21 Significant Stats: Draw 10+ Winner analysis: The draw has been key to this race and that helps to narrow down the field. Contact (8/1), Gold Maze (25/1) and Sir Rumi (25/1) have good profiles and meet the significant stat. I'll be looking through the form more closely on Friday morning.  

Win Stats: Runs: 0-2 = 86% Career Runs: 4-7 = 100% Days: 20+ = 100% Group: 1-2 = 86% OR: S.D. 111+ Mean 115+ Best RPR: S.D. 112+ Mean 116+ Draw: 3+ Significant Stats: Runs 0-2 OR 115+ Winner analysis: Only Perfect Power (4/1) meets both significant stats and I've steadily been backing him EW, I just wish he hadn't been drawn in stall 1! El Caballo (13/2) has a strong general profile for the race so I wouldn't discount him, as does Twilight Jet (8/1) and Go Bears Go (9/1). I have also backed Twilight Jet EW in the last couple of weeks so I'm happy with my current position in the race.  Prices as of 10am Thursday morning. 

Win Stats: Runs: 1-2 = 100% Days: 0-39 = 90% Bred: GB, IRE, USA = 95% LTO: 1-3 = 95% Foaled: Jan–March  = 95% Sire Index: 6.4 – 11.8  Dams Sire Index: 6.9 – 11.4 Draw: 2-20 Best RPR: Mean 86+ Significant Stats: Draw 7-20 Winner analysis: A high draw appears to have been advantageous in this over the years but don't let that put you off those drawn low if you do fancy one. Best on the generals and drawn higher are Queen Olly (8/1) and Fully Wet (11/1), whilst Meditate (11/4) drawn low, is also strong on the general stats.  Please note that the prices are correct as of 10am Thursday morning not when published. 

Win Stats: Runs: 1-4 = 90% Days: 0-59 = 90% Distance: 7f-10f = 100% Bred: GB, IRE, USA = 95% Group: Listed or none = 100% LTO: 1-6 = 90% OR: Mean 104+ Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Both Cresta (11/1) and Reach For The Moon (1/2) have the best profiles and I may have small play on the forecast or simply leave the race alone. 

Win Stats: Runs: 2-4 = 94% 3-4 = 80% Days: 0-39 = 80% Distance: 7f-8f = 86% Bred: GB, IRE = 90% OR: S.D 87-99 Weight: S.D. 8-6 – 9-3 Draw: 3-29 LTO: 1-2 = 80% Significant Stats: Runs 2+ Days 0-39 Winner analysis: When applying both the sig stats and the generals together it narrows the field down to Fiach McHugh (33/1) and Kitsune Power (33/1). Not looked at either in great detail yet so not sure whether I'll be backing them or not. The latter does seem to be on an upward curve however and his latest RPR suggests there may still be more to come. 

Win Stats: Age: 4-8 = 100% 4-6 = 90% Runs: 1-2 = 85% LTO: 1-6 = 90% Distance: 16f-20f = 90% Bred: GB, IRE = 95% Group: 1-3 = 90% OR: S.D 113+ Mean 118+ Significant Stats: OR 117+ Distance 16f+ Winner analysis: Trueshan (13/2) meets both significant stats, but unless there is some unexpected rain then his participation is in doubt. Stradivarius (11/4) also meets both and he has got his favoured good ground, I wouldn't be shocked to see him go close. Princess Zoe (15/2) comes close to meeting both and she has strong course form and looks a tempting EW bet. The fav, Kyprios (13/8) meets the OR sig stat but has yet to be tested over 16f+ so does need to show that he stays this far. I'm not willing to take a short price to find out but wouldn't be surprised if he does win. 

Win Stats: Runs: 1-3 = 95% 2-3 = 85% Days: 0-59 = 90% Distance: 7f-12f = 100% Bred: GB, IRE, USA = 100% Group: 3, listed or none = 95% LTO: 1-5 = 85% OR: Mean 100+ Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: A poor stats race and nothing close to significant. The best on general stats are Sea Silk Road (2/1), Life Of Dreams (6/1), and Mukaddamah (7/1). I've had a small bet on the Varian horse as it's not a race I'm really bothered about getting involved with. 

Win Stats: Runs: 2-3 = 80% Days: 0-59 = 90% Distance: 8f-12f = 90% LTO: 1-2 = 100% OR: 85 - 95 S.D 87-94 Weight: 8-1 - 9-3 S.D. 8-6 – 9-1 Draw: 4-22 Significant Stats: No sig stats Small correlation   between position and LTO 1-2 Winner analysis: Using the general stats and the correlation, Surrey Mist (20/1), Savvy Knight (33/1) and Post Impressionist (10/3) have good looking profiles and I'll have a look through their form in a bit more detail.   

Win Stats: Runs: 1-4 = 100% Days: 0-59 = 95% LTO: 1st = 84% Distance: = 90% Bred: GB, IRE, USA = 100% Foaled: Jan–Apr    = 95% Sire Index: 5.5 – 8.9  Dams Sire Index: 7.6 – 11.4 Pref 8.2+ Best RPR: Mean 91+ Significant Stats: Dams sire index 7.9+ High 8.2+ Winner analysis: The sig stat narrows the field down to four horses, The Antarctic (7/2), Crispy Cat (12/1), Bakeel (11/1) and The Ridler (33/1). Aidans 2 year old's have been running well all week and I'd expect to see another strong run by his horse. Crispy Cats form was boosted this week and he should run a solid race whilst Bakeel has a CD win to his name, although the form doesn't appear to be working out.  

Win Stats: Runs: 1-3 = 100% Days: 0-39 = 90% LTO: 1-6 = 100% Foaled: Jan – Apr = 100% Sire Index: 6.5 – 9.8 Pref 6.5 – 8.4 Best RPR: Mean 90+ Significant Stats: Days 20+ (treat with caution) Winner analysis: Not convinced by the sig stat and it's one I'll keep my eye on. Those that meet the general stats are Little Big Bear (5/2), Chateau (10/1), Bolt Action (10/1), Mehmar (20/1), Kaasib (25/1). Before I back anything I'll be seeing how the stables other 2 year old runners have got on. If Aidan O'Briens 2 year olds have ran well then I can see LBB going off shorter but I'm happy to wait. I was visually impressed by Bolt Action LTO and Chateau took a big step forward from his debut and his sire has produced some quick horses, including last years Windsor Castle winner Chipotle. 

Win Stats: Age: 4-7 = 100% Bred: GB, IRE = 90% Runs: 0-2 = 90% Draw: 4-33 OR: 94-105 S.D 97-103 Weight: 8-6 – 9-5 S.D. 8-11 – 9-4 Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Cleansed the data and reduced it to the last 10 years. There are three horses that meet the general stats, Symbolize (14/1), Fantastic Fox (25/1), and Lunar Space (50/1). I thought Fantastic Fox's last run at Epsom was quite eye-catching staying on after a slow start and providing the run doesn't come too soon I'd be hopeful of a good showing. 

Win Stats: Age: 4-5 = 94% Days: 0-59 = 89% Bred: GB, IRE = 100% LTO: 1-3 = 89% Distance: 7f – 10f = 100% 8f = 83% Runs: 0-2 = 88% Group: 1 – Listed = 94% OR: S.D 105+ Mean 110+ Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Trappy looking race at first glance and not one I'll be going crazy in. Sibila Spain (15/2) and Bashkirova (4/1) have the best general profiles and the former looks a solid EW bet providing she handles the firmer ground. 

Win Stats: Age: 4-5 = 95% Days: 20+ = 90% LTO: 1-3 = 86% Distance: 10f – 12f = 100% Runs: 0-3 = 100% Group: 1-3 = 100% OR: S.D 118+ Mean 121+ Significant Stats: OR 118+ High 122+ Winner analysis: All bar one of the field meet the sig stat. The fav, Bay Bridge (5/4) has the best general profile but I wouldn't be taking such a short price about a horse who hasn't ran at group 1 level yet. There is a small correlation between position, OR (118+) and group 1 winner so I'll be focusing on State Of Rest (11/2) and Shahyar (10/3) and going back through the form and watching some of their races. 

Win Stats: Days: 0-59 = 85% Bred: GB, IRE = 90% LTO: 1-3 = 85% Distance: 8f-12f+ = 95% Runs: 1-3 = 85% OR: S.D 95+ Mean 102+ Significant Stats: OR 95+ High 102+ Winner analysis: Seven horses meet the sig and three meet the high stat. Hafit (9/1), Nahanni (9/2) and Anchorage (7/1) are the three and all look strong EW selections. Aidan O'Brien does have a good record in the race and Charlie Appleby did win it last year so they know the type of horse required to win this and which horses will be suited by the step up in trip. 

Win Stats: Days: 0-59 = 100% Bred: GB, IRE, USA = 100% LTO: 1-2 = 100% Runs: 1-3 = 90% Best RPR: S.D 88+ Mean 93+ Sire Index: 6.1 – 9.6  Foaled: Jan – Apr = 100% Significant Stats: Foaled Jan – March LTO 1-2  Best RPR 92+ Winner analysis: Three strong significant stats and a correlation between LTO 1st and RPR 92+. Five horses meet the sig stats and four of those also meet the correlation. Love Reigns (3/1), Katey Kontent (10/1), Maria Branwell (10/1), and Manhattan Jungle (25/1). The American horse will no doubt make all however her price is fairly skinny and is based on trainer comments. I'll be looking at all those mentioned in greater detail and assessing the impact of the draw after day 1.

Last 10 years of data only. Win Stats: Age: 5-9 = 100% 5-7 = 80% Days: 0-59 = 90% Bred: GB, IRE = 90% Distance: 12f+= 100% Runs: 1-6 = 100% OR: 89-100 S.D = 91 – 98 Weight: 8-10 - 9-10 S.D = 9-3 – 9-7 Significant Stats: Age 5-9 Winner analysis: The stats suggest to avoid 4 year old's which rules out the fav Pied Piper. The horses that meet the significant stat and have the best profiles are Bring On The Night (5/1), Coltrane (11/1), Make My Day (20/1) and Scaramanga (33/1) and it will be these four I will be looking at more closely.

Win Stats: Days: 0-59 = 95% Bred: GB, IRE, USA = 95% Runs: 1-3 = 95% Group: 1-Listed = 90% Distance: 6-8f = 95% 8f = 80% OR: S.D = 113+ Mean = 118+ Significant Stats: OR 115+ Distance 8f Winner analysis: Coroebus (4/6) meets both significant stats and was a very good Guineas winner. Providing the bend doesn't cause any issues he should win as his form is far superior to the rest of the field. He will have to run below par to get beaten. The only other horse to meet both the significant stats is Angel Bleu (40/1). If there was cut in the ground I'd have been tempted to back in EW, however the ground looks like it will be on the firm side of good at the moment so I'll hang fire.