Cheltenham Gold Cup

EW Stats:

Age: 7-10 = 93%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98%

Runs: 1-4 = 90%  

Days: 21+ = 98%

LTO: 1-6 = 90%

Grade LTO: 1-3 = 94%

OR: S.D = 159+ Mean = 168+

Best RPR: S.D = 164+ Mean = 172+

RPR Race: S.D = 168+ Mean = 174+ (within 5lbs)

EW Analysis:

Bravemansgame (13/2), Protektorat (16/1) and Minella Indo (22/1) have the strongest profiles. The latter doesn't appeal to me as his better days look to be behind him, but the two GB trained horses do appeal as EW bets. I'll see what enhanced place offers there are on the day.

Win Stats:

Age: 7-9 = 95%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 95%

Runs: 1-4 = 95%

LTO: 1-6 = 100% 1-2 = 85%

Days: 21+ = 100%

Grade: 1-2 = 95% 1 = 90%

Grade LTO: 1-3 = 91%

Festival Experience: = 90%

OR: S.D = 164+ Mean = 171+

Best RPR: S.D = 166+ Mean = 174+

RPR Race: S.D = 173+ Mean = 178+

Significant Stats:

Grade 1

RPR 172+

Days 21-40 or 60+ (a decent break is often a positive)

Positive correlation between Pos - RPR (172) and grade 1

Winner analysis:

Three significant stats and a correlation to help narrow down the field. Along with those stats I also look for a horse with previous festival experience and a proven grade 1 horse.  

Five horses meet these criteria and they are the fav, Galopin Des Champs (7/4), last years impressive winner A Plus Tard (15/2), the King George winner Bravemansgame, Conflated (14/1) and Minella Indo. The fav could be a superstar however I'm not interested in backing him as a single at that price. APT has to bounce back from a poor showing at Haydock which is an obvious concern but if he replicates last years performance he will be very hard to beat. Bravemansgame looks a solid EW bet as mentioned, while Conflated should also go well. 

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