Ryanair Chase

EW Stats:

Age: 6-10 = 98% 

Bred: IRE, FR= 92%

Runs: 1-6 = 100% 

Distance: = 92%

Days: 21+ = 94%

LTO: 1-5 = 88%

Chase wins season: 0-2 = 91%

Grade LTO: 1-3 = 100% 1-2 = 88%

Placed at previous festival: = 85%

OR: S.D = 157+ Mean = 163+

Season RPR: S.D = 162+ Mean = 167+

Best RPR: S.D = 162+ Mean 167+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-10 FR 7-10 IRE

EW Analysis:

Blue Lord (5/1) ticks every box and should run his race and 5/1 seems reasonable in a race that could cut up. Next best is Janidil (7/1) who did place in this last year, however he doesn't appeal to me.  

Win Stats:

Age: 7-10 = 94%

Bred: IRE, FR = 88%

Runs: 2-4 = 100%

Course winner: = 82%

Days: 21+ = 100%

Distance: = 100%

Chase wins season: 0-3 = 100%

Grade LTO: 1-2 = 100%

Placed at previous festival: = 82%

OR: S.D = 159+ Mean = 165+

Season RPR: S.D = 143+ Mean = 170+

Best RPR: S.D = 167+ Mean = 172+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 7-9 FR 7-10 IRE

Significant Stats:

OR 162+ High 166+

Season RPR 165+ High 170 +

Best RPR 167+

Course winner

Correlation between position, OR (166), SRPR (170), BRPR (167), and course winner

Winner analysis:

Four sig stats and a correlation and Shiskin (4/5) is the only horse to meet them all and while he might hack up if reproducing his form last time out, he's not really a price for me for a single bet.  Blue Lord is the only other horse to come close as he meets three and i'll be looking to back EW and/or in the without market on the day. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Supreme Novices' Hurdle

EW Stats: Age: 5-6 = 92% Bred: IRE, FR = 85% Runs: 2-4 = 94% Hurdle wins: 1-3 = 92% Won on a left-handed track: = 79% LTO: 1-2 = 90% Days: 20+ = 94% OR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 148+ Best RPR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 148+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR 5-7 IRE/GB S.P: Mean 10s and under EW Analysis : At the moment it is looking a competitive race, more so now that Ballyburn is being aimed at the Gallaghers. Tullyhill (4/1) has the strongest EW profile, and I would expect Paul Townend to take the ride and try and make all. Slade Steel (6/1) has the next best profile and providing the ground does not dry up too much looks a fair EW shout. Win Stats: Age: 5-6 = 94% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Days: 20+ = 88% Runs: 2-4 = 94% LTO: 1st = 88% Grade: 1-listed = 93% 1-2 = 75% Hurdle wins: 2-3 = 88% Won left-handed: = 81% OR: S.D = 144+ Mean = 149+ RPR: S.D = 145+ Mean = 149+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR/GB 6-7 IRE SP Mean: = 7's and under Significant Stats: RPR 145+ high sig 151+ SP 12s and under Positive correlat
Read more

Grand National Handicap Chase

Win Stats: Age: 8-11 = 90% Bred: IRE, FR, = 95%  Days: 21-84. S.D. 21-52 Runs: 3-6 = 95% LTO: 1-5 = 88% Chase Runs: 1+ = 100% Distance 24f+ = 90% BRPR: 144+ Mean 154+ OR: 136-160 S.D. 139-154 Weight: 10-3 – 11-9 S.D. 10-5 – 11-3 Crosstab Age/Bred: FR 9-11 IRE 8-11 Significant Stats: Runs 3+ Winner analysis: Quite a few horses meet the sig stat but when applying the general stats I’ve produced a shortlist of Corach Rambler (8/1), Ain’t That A Shame (50/1), Vanillier (12/1), Galia Des Liteaux (28/1), Panda Boy (11/1) and I Am Maximus (15/2).
Read more

Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase

EW Stats: Age: 5-8 = 98% Bred: IRE, FR = 85% Distance: = 97% Runs: 2-5 = 88% LTO: 1-3 = 92% Days: 21+ = 97% Chase wins: 1-3 = 89% Won left-handed: = 86% OR: S.D = 145+ Mean = 153+ RPR: S.D = 150+ Mean = 158+ Hurdles OR: S.D. 134+ Mean 146+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-8 FR 6-8 Other EW Analysis : There does not appear to be an obvious superstar in the field which means it is looking a competitive Arkle. Gaelic Warrior (4/1) has been well backed over the last 24 hours due to Rich Ricci’s comments however I would be genuinely concerned about his tendency to jump right, even more so on the old course which is used for the first two days. Il Etait Temps (9/2) has the best EW profile along with Facile Vega (12/1), however the latter looks unlikely to run in this race at present, if he did though I will be backing EW. IET won at the DRF last time out, but again, I am not sure the course will suit but I can see him staying on for place money so looks a solid play. The next
Read more