Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase

EW Stats:

Age: 5-8 = 97% 6-7 = 85%

Bred: IRE, FR = 91%

Distance: = 100%

Runs: 2-4 = 94%

LTO: 1-2 = 82%

Chase wins: 1-3 = 91%

Won left-handed: = 85%

Grade: 1-2 = 76%

OR: S.D = 149+ Mean = 155+

RPR: S.D = 152+ Mean = 159+

Hurdles OR: S.D. 138+ Mean 148+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-8 FR 6-8 Other

EW Analysis:

For those looking away from the top two in the betting, Kargese (6s), and Romeo Coolio (7s) have strong EW profiles. 

Win Stats:

Age: 6-7 = 91%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100%, IRE, FR = 82% 

Runs: 2-5 = 100% 2-3 = 82%

Days: 21 - 60 = 91%

Chase wins: 1-4 = 100%

Left-handed win: 91%

LTO: 1st = 82%

Grade: 1-2 = 91% 1 = 82%

OR: S.D = 153+ Mean = 160+

RPR: S.D = 160+ Mean = 166+

Hurdles OR: S.D = 148+ Mean = 154+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-7 FR 6-8 IRE/GB

Significant Stats:

RPR 157+

HOR 146+

OR 153+

Chase wins 2+

Positive correlation between position, OR (158+), RPR (163+), HOR (153+), LTO (1st) & chase wins (2+)

Winner analysis:

This race has historically been a strong trends contest, with several runners fitting the key statistical markers.

Lulamba (15/8) satisfies all four significant trends, the key correlation, and the general statistical profile, making him one of the standout fits on paper. The slight concern is whether the early pace of the race could catch him out, potentially leaving him struggling to find a rhythm in the opening stages.

Romeo Coolio also ticks all four of the significant trends, but similar reservations apply regarding the likely strong early tempo, which may test his ability to travel comfortably through the race.

Kopek Des Bordes (6/4) meets three of the four significant indicators, the only missing factor being previous chase wins. In addition, he has two general statistical negatives to overcome, namely seasonal runs and days since his last outing. That said, he is a horse I hold in very high regard and one I backed ante-post last year, so his presence at the top of the market is no surprise.

Further down the market, Kargese and Steel Ally (16/1) each satisfy three of the significant trends, which helps narrow the field when applying the main statistical filters.


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Plate Handicap Chase

Win Stats: Age: 6-10 = 93% Bred: IRE, FR, = 93% Runs: 1-5 = 93% Distance: = 100% Days: 20+ = 93% Season: Novice/2 nd  = 80% OR: 136-149 S.D 138-145 Weight: 10-7 – 11-2 Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-7 FR 7-10 Other Significant Stats: Distance Winner analysis: This isn’t a strong stats race, and no horse has a perfect profile. The ones that score best on the general stats and also hit the key stat are O’Moore Park (20/1), Madara (4/1), and Booster Bob (20/1).
Read more

Supreme Novices' Hurdle

EW Stats: Age: 5-6 = 91% Bred: IRE, FR = 85% Runs: 2-4 = 92% Hurdle wins: 1-3 = 91% Won on a left-handed track: = 80% LTO: 1-2 = 89% 1st = 76% Grade: 1 - listed = 78% Days: 20+ = 93% OR: S.D = 142+ Mean = 148+ Best RPR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 147+ S.P: Mean 9s and under EW Analysis : Talk The Talk (6/1) possesses a very strong each-way statistical profile. If connections opt for this race rather than the Turners, he should be very competitive. Another with a favourable each-way profile is Sober Glory (14/1), who produced an impressive RPR on his latest start, albeit achieved in heavy ground conditions. Win Stats: Age: 5-6 = 94% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Days: 20+ = 89% Runs: 2-4 = 94% LTO: 1-2 = 94% 1st = 83% Grade: 1-listed = 94% 1-2 = 82% Hurdle wins: 2-3 = 89% Won left-handed: = 83% OR: S.D = 144+ Mean = 149+ RPR: S.D = 145+ Mean = 150+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR/GB 6-7 IRE SP Mean: = 7's and under Significant St...
Read more

Royal Ascot Day 1

Narrowing the fields using the sig stats and general trends: 2:30 - 3 sig stats and Rosallion (9/4), Lead Artist (5/1) and Notable Speech (5/1) meet all three. 3:05 - 1 sig stat. Power Blue (18/1), Andab (15/2), Gstaad (5/1), Postmodern (11/2), Military Code (6/1), Warsaw (9/1), Gavoo (22/1) and Tricky Tel (50/1) meet it.  3:40 - 3 sig stats. Asfoora (4/1), Mgheera (9/1), and West Acre (16/1) meet all three.  4:20 - 2 sig stats. Field Of Gold (4/5) and Ruling Court (7/2) meet both.  5:00 - 1 sig stat. Manxman (9/1), A L Grande (11/1), Nurburgring (12/1), Ascending (22/1), Saturn (28/1), and Comfort Zone (28/1) meet it and all of the general stats.  5:35 - 1 sig stat. Haunted Dream (12/1), Kings Gambit (8/1) and Ambiente Friendly (22/1) meet it and the general stats.
Read more