Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy

Win Stats:

Age: 5-9 = 100% 6-8 = 85%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100%

Runs: 1-4 = 95% 2-4 = 90%

Days: 21+ = 100%

LTO: 1st = 85%

Previous festival experience: = 95%

Grade: 1-2 = 85%

Grade: Won a graded race that season =93%

Grade run LTO: 1 - listed = 93%

Season wins: 1-3 = 100%

OR: S.D = 160+ Mean = 166+

RPR: S.D = 160+ Mean = 166+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 5-9 IRE/GB

Significant Stats:

Season wins 2-3

LTO 1st

OR 161+

Positive correlation between position, OR (166) RPR (166+), LTO (1st), season wins (2-3).

Winner analysis:

The two mares Lossiemouth (5/2) and Brighterdaysahead (4/1) both match two of the key trends.

Lossiemouth misses the last-time-out trend, while Brighterdaysahead falls short on seasonal wins, which has been a common feature among recent winners.

The New Lion (5/2) meets just one of the main trends, and his current Official Rating and best Racing Post Rating sit slightly below what you would normally expect from a typical Champion Hurdle winner. Last year’s winner Golden Ace (13/2) also matches only one of the key trends, suggesting she has more to prove if she is to successfully defend his crown.

Overall, this looks a tricky Champion Hurdle to assess. From a trends perspective it lacks the strength of some recent renewals and, if I’m honest, it doesn’t appear to be the strongest running of the race in recent years.


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