Champion Hurdle

EW Stats:

Age: 5-9 = 95% 5-8 = 87%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98%

Runs: 1-5 = 98% 2-4 = 87%

LTO: 1-3 = 88%

Days: 21+ = 97%

Previous festival experience: = 88%

OR: S.D = 156+ Mean = 162+

RPR: S.D = 159+ Mean = 165+

RPR Race: S.D. 161+ Mean 166+ (I like a horse to have a best RPR within 3lbs of this)

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-9 IRE/GB

EW Analysis:

If Epatante drifted out to 4’s on the day she would be a cracking EW bet, however I doubt that may happen and I can see her only shortening from her current 7/2 so I couldn’t back EW despite having a perfect profile. Goshen (4/1) also has a perfect EW profile and he came right back to form LTO. Visually impressive but I’m not sure the horses he beat ran up to form and the clock doesn’t suggest it was Champion Hurdle form, he may however prove to be an enigma and may have been primed for this day only. Silver Streak (16/1) also has the perfect EW profile and has done nothing but improve and should run his race, whether he’s quite good enough is open to debate.

Win Stats:

Age: 5-9 = 100%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE. FR = 90%

Runs: 1-4 = 95%

Days: 21+ = 95%

LTO: 1-2 = 90% 1st = 80%

Previous festival experience: = 95%

OR: S.D = 158+ Mean = 164+

RPR: S.D = 161+ Mean = 166+

RPR Race: S.D = 167+ Mean = 170+ (horses need to have a best RPR within 5lbs)

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-9 IRE/GB

Significant Stats:

RPR Race 167+ high 169+ so I’m looking for at least a best RPR of 162

LTO 1-2. High 1st

Positive correlation between position, RPR race (167+) and previous festival experience.

Winner analysis:

When focussing on the two sig stats and correlation, Honeysuckle (5/2), Epatante (7/2), Goshen (4/1) and Buveur D’Air (20/1) meet them all. Honeysuckle is unbeaten and is looking to continue the run, this will be her toughest test yet though and I have reservations over her suitable over the trip on the ground if the word ‘good’ appears. The reigning champ Epatante on the other hand should appreciate the better going and meets all of the general stats bar the LTO 1st. It must be a concern that she ran way below par LTO with a back niggle cited as an issue. Goshen on the hand meets every stat and comes into the race on the back of a win. Whilst I’m still not convinced he is CH material the stats are firmly in his favour so I will look very closely again once the final decs are made. B D’Air doesn’t interest me due to his age but hopefully he runs a solid race.

On a personal note, I have backed Abacadabras ante post way back in Sept and I think that despite beaten by Honeysuckle LTO, the better ground will work in his favour. He does meet the correlation so I’ve still got some hope!

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