Significant Horse Racing Stats

Win Stats: Bred: IRE, GB, USA = 94% Season Runs: 0-1 = 100% Career Runs: 2-6 = 100% LTO: 1-3 = 100% Group: 1-3 = 89% OR: S.D = 113+ Mean = 118+ Stallion index: 7.4 – 11.7 S.D. 8.7 – 11.7 Significant Stats: OR 113+ Days 20+ SR 0-1 CR 2-6 Group 1-3 Stallion index 8.7+ Winner analysis: Six significant stats to get stuck into for the first Classic of the season. Wembley (7/2) meets 5/6 of the sig stats and warrants respect. I particularly liked the way he stayed on in the National Stakes last year and think that piece of form will be strong all season. Thunder Moon (9/2) meets all 6 and is a horse I’ve backed ante post and I really like his chances. One Ruler (10/1) is another who meets all 6 sig stats, however my concern is that Buick has opted for his stablemate. Lucky Vega (12/1) is another who meets all 6 and is another horse I backed recently and I’m pleased to see money come in for him. Finally, Van Gogh (14/1) meets 5 sig stats, although I see him mor...

Win Stats: Age: 6-8 = 94% Bred: IRE, FR = 100% Runs: 1-6 = 100% Days: 0-59 = 94% Distance: = 94% OR: S.D = 140+ Mean = 152+ Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: The fav misses the days stat having picked up a minor injury prior to Cheltenham, which means Captain Guinness (6/1) and Janidil (6/1) have the best profiles. Again, probably not a betting heat for me.  

Win Stats: Age: 6-11 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% LTO: 1-5 = 92% Days: 20-59 = 87% OR: S.D = 150+ Mean = 158+ Significant Stats: Age – Avoid 5 yr old's. LTO 1-5 Winner analysis: The two at the head of the market have the best profiles and meet both significant stats, and if the going remains good (they are due some showers) then Flooring Porter (9/4) should be tough to beat. Beacon Edge (11/2) travelled well for a long way at Cheltenham and providing it hasn’t taken too much out of him should be thereabouts again. On a personal note I’ve been a fan of Ronald Pump and that form, staying on behind Honeysuckle looks pretty good. In all honesty I’m not sure I’ll be having a bet as the stats don’t seem to be that strong and I'm torn between the three mentioned....Tricast perhaps ;p

Win Stats: Age: 7-10 = 92% Bred: IRE, FR = 100% Runs: 4+ = 92% Days: 0-59 = 100% 0-39 = 83% OR:   120-150 S.D 120-143 Weight: S.D. 9-10 – 11-2 Cross tab Age Bred: F 7-8 IRE 7-10 Significant Stats: Bred IRE/FR Winner analysis: Loads of horses on the shortlist based on the sig stat and the generals. Mortal (100/1), Embittered (8/1), Black Op (8/1), Snugsborough Hall (16/1), Dunvegan (11/1), Fitzhenry (33/1), Cross My Mind (18/1), Jack Hackett (40/1), Thatsy (14/1) and Foxy Jacks (28/1). I’ll be backing a few EW with enhanced places and the ones I’ve got my eye on are Mortal, who has dropped to a good mark, Embittered who could be better than his current mark, Cross My Mind who has a few bits of decent form, and Thatsy who whilst is inexperienced, could be better than his mark as well. I’ll look back through all of the shortlist again to double check.

Win Stats: Age: 7-10 = 92% Runs: 2-7 = 100% Days: 0-59 = 100% Cheltenham Run: = 75% Grade: 1 or 2 = 100% 1 =81% Distance: 24f+ = 81% Course: = 81% OR: S.D = 157+ Mean = 165+ Significant Stats: Age 7-9 Winner analysis: Most meet the sig stat except Fakir D’oudairies. Kemboy (4/1) has the best profile and at the price I’m willing to have a nibble. Course and ground will suit and he did win the last renewal of this race. Al Boum Photo (6/4) is next best, the only minor negative is that he isn’t a course winner, I’d also be worried that he had a hard race at Cheltenham LTO.

Win Stats: Age: 5-6 = 92% Bred: IRE = 92% Runs: 3+ = = 100% Days: 0-59 = 100% OR: S.D = 132+ Mean = 142+ Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Little to go on, however it does appear you need a horse with a recent run and IRE bred. Stattler (8/1) and Tellmesomethinggirl (13/2) have the best profiles and I’ve backed both half a point EW.

Win Stats: Age: 6-7 = 89% Bred: IRE, FR, = 89% LTO: 1-5 = 89% Days: 0-59 = 100% Runs: = 4+ 100% OR: S.D = 140+ Mean = 149+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-7 FR 7 IRE Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Again, another small field but this looks a cracker. Whilst Monkfish (11/10) didn’t jump as well as he has done previously he remains unbeaten over fences and does have the best profile. Envoi Allen (5/4) blemished his profile LTO with an uncharacteristic fall and that stat is a negative. I personally won’t be having a bet just watching the race and enjoying it.

Win Stats: Age: 6-10 = 88% Bred: IRE, FR, = 100% Runs: 3-5 = 88% LTO: 1-6 = 100% 1-2 = 81% Days: 0-59 = 100% Distance: = 100% Cheltenham Run: Yes = 88% Cheltenham Race: QM or Ryanair = 88% Grade: 1-2 = 100% 1 = 81% OR: S.D = 158+ Mean = 168+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-8 FR 8-10 IRE Significant Stats: OR 163+ Winner analysis: Small but quality field with QM and Ryanair form on the table. If Allaho (6/4) gets a soft lead he will be hard to peg back and he does have the best general profile along with First Flow (12/1). Allaho does have one negative against him as he is not a distance winner and I don’t fancy FF based on the current ground. Chacun Pour Soi (11/8) has a very good profile and I have backed him a few weeks back but he does have a couple of minor negatives, cross tab and LTO.      

Win Stats: Age: 5-8 = 100% 5-6 = 85% Bred: IRE, FR, GER = 100% Runs: 2-6 = 100% 3-5 = 85% LTO: 1-3 = 92% Days: 0-59 = 85% Distance 16f: = 92% OR: S.D = 137+ Mean = 145+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5 FR 5-8 IRE/GER Significant Stats: No significant stats Winner analysis: Small field and no significant stat to focus on. Echoes In Rain (8/11) has the best general profile however she is short enough for me. Blue Lord (13/8) took quite a heavy fall last time out and that goes against him, as does the cross tab of age and bred. The others look to be competing for 3 rd . Not a race I’ll be getting involved in but good luck if you are.  

Really pleased with how the stats performed at Aintree, both the significant stats and the general stats with many of the winners shortlisted and highlighted in the posts. There was 19 significant stats in total, with 17 being upheld (1 was hit by any horse) which helped us to narrow down the fields considerably. On Day 1, the stats and the blog highlighted winners, Monmiral, Clan Des Obeaux, Abbacadaras, and Editeur De Gite, along with placed horses at EW prices such as Frero Banbou. There was 5 significant stats in total and all 5 were upheld. Day 2 highlighted Dusart was a weak favourite having missed the significant stat, Chantry House as strong bet being the only horse to meet the high significant stat and the well backed Fakir D'oudairies who met the most sig stats. There was also some nice priced EW horses highlighted. Day 3 was another successful day, Hometown Boy and Tea Clipper highlighted in the 1st race, My Drogo, Shiskin, and Thyme Hill followed, then came Ha...

Win Stats: Age: 8-11 = 95% Bred: IRE, FR, = 90% Days: 20-84. S.D. 20-50 Runs: 3-6 = 100% Chase Runs: 1-5 = 95% Distance 24f+ = 100% Grade: 1-3 = 80% Running Style: Prom or Mid Div = 90% OR: 136-160 S.D. 138-153 Weight: 10-3 – 11-9 S.D. 10-6 – 11-3 RPR: S.D. 145+ Mean 152+ Significant Stats: Runs 3+ High 4+ Winner analysis: Cloth Cap (4/1) meets the significant stat and most of the generals (S.D. weight not met) and is obviously well handicapped. The best profiles and horses that have ran 4+ times include Any Second Now (10/1), Lord De Mensil (33/1), Canelo (40/1), Shattered Love (50/1), Jett (66/1), and Alpha Des Obeaux (66/1).                

Win Stats: Age: 6-11 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Days: 20-39 = 81% Runs: 3+ = 87% OR: 123-148 S.D. 131-144 Weight: 10-2 – 11-12 S.D. 10-5 – 11-4 Significant Stats: Cheltenham run slight positive Winner analysis: The fav, Happygolucky (7/2) meets the significant stat and still looks well treated and I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him. Those that meet the significant stat and the best on generals are, Spiritofthegames (11/1), Cloudy Glen (15/2), Hold The Note (12/1), Ofalltheginjoints (16/1) and snow Leopardess (12/1).            

Win Stats: Age: 6-9 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Days: 20-59 = 94% Runs: 2-5 = 100% Cheltenham Run: Yes = 88% Grade: 1 or 2 = 94% OR: S.D. 158+ Mean 165+ Season RPR: S.D. 158+ Mean 165+ Significant Stats: OR 158+ High 164+ Season RPR 158+ High 165+ Positive correlation between position, OR (164+) and season RPR (165+) Winner analysis: Paisley Park (3/1) meets both significant stats and ran another fine race at Cheltenham and should be thereabouts. Thyme Hill (9/4) who I backed last week ante post also meets the two significant stats and providing his minor setback that ruled him out of Cheltenham is behind him then I’m expecting a big run. Finally, Roksanna also meets the significant stats and I think this is her best trip nowadays so I wouldn’t discount. Front three in the market appear to be the ones to focus on.        

Win Stats: Age: 6-8 = 87% Bred: Avoid GB = 94% Days: 0-59 = 94% Runs: 3-6 = 87% Distance: 100% OR: S.D. 145+ Mean 153+ Season RPR: S.D. 150+ Mean 160+ Significant Stats: OR 153+ Positive correlation between position, OR (153+) and season RPR (160+) Winner analysis: Shiskin (1/6) is the only the horse to meet the sig stat and correlation and has the perfect profile, obviously his price reflects his chance.  

Win Stats: Age: 5-7 = 94% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% LTO: 1-6 = 94% Days: 20-59 = 100% 20-39 = 88% Runs: 3-6 = 94% 3-5 = 88% OR: S.D. 138+ Mean 146+ Season RPR: S.D. 145+ Mean 151+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5 FR 5-7 IRE/GB Significant Stats: If a horse has ran at Cheltenham it must have been in Supreme or Ballymore Winner analysis: The sig stat only applies if a horse has run at Cheltenham, it is not a negative to have skipped Cheltenham however. This usually goes to a horse who has shown a high level of ability already and having hit a pretty good RPR (at least 145+). My Drogo (2/1) has the best profile very closely followed by Ballyadam (11/4) and these two will be the ones I will be focussing on.

Win Stats: Age: 6-9 = 94% Days: 20+ = 94% OR: 128-150 S.D. 129-143 Weight: 10-4 – 11-12 S.D = 10-9 – 11-6 Crosstab Age/Bred: 8-9 FR 6-9 IRE/GB Significant Stats: No significant stats. Winner analysis: Not much to go on and the other variables I’ve analysed show very little of note. Novices or lightly raced horses do well so I’ve applied this along with the above stats, however it still leaves quite a few on the shortlist. These are some of the horses I’ll be looking at in more detail, Tea Clipper (9/1), Polish (9/1), Hometown Boy (10/1), Southfield Harvest (10/1), Ballybeg (12/1), Whirling Dervish (12/1), and Carrieben Reiver (20/1).

Win Stats: Age: 5-7 = 100% 6-7 = 88% Bred: IRE, GB = 88% Days: 0-39 = 88% Runs: 2-6 = 100% 3-6 = 93% OR: S.D 135+ Mean 142+ Season RPR: S.D 145+ Mean 150+   Significant Stats: No significant stats Winner analysis: Never fully confident in a graded race without significant stats to help. Bravemansgame (15/8) has the best profile and his trainer believes the step up in trip should suit and he could be too good for the rest of them. Best of the rest include, Alaphillipe (14/1), Oscar Elite (9/1) and The Cob (33/1).

Win Stats: Age: 6-10 = 87% Bred: IRE, FR = 93% LTO: Not a winner = 100% Days: 0-39 = 93% Runs: 3-7 = 93% 4-7 = 87% OR: 124-152 S.D 129-146+ Weight: 10-0 – 11-8 S.D 10-2 – 11-4 Crosstab Age/Bred: 9-10 IRE 6-10 FR Significant Stats: No significant stats Winner analysis: Trappy race as expected and five horses meet the general stats. Visioman (15/2), Dunvegan (25/1), My Way (25/1), Snugsborough Hall (28/1), and Glen Forsa (50/1).        

Win Stats: Age: 7-11 = 100% 7-9 = 88% Bred: IRE, FR = 94% Days: 20-39 = 88% Runs: 3-5 = 94% Cheltenham run: Yes = 100% Cheltenham Race: QM or Ryanair = 100% Grade: 1 = 94% OR: S.D 160+ Mean 168+ Season RPR: S.D 163+ Mean 171+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 8-11 IRE 7-8 FR Significant Stats: Season RPR 163+ Grade 1 OR 168+ Days 0-39 Cheltenham run Cheltenham race QM or Ryanair Positive correlation between position, OR (168), days (0-39), Chelt run, Chelt race (QM/Ryanair), grade 1, SRPR (163+), runs (3-5). Winner analysis: No horse meets all 6 significant stats but Fakir D’Oudairies (11/4) and Notebook (13/2) meet 5 and have the better general profiles as well and I’ll be backing both.      

Win Stats: Age: 5-8 = 93% Bred: IRE, FR = 100% Days: 20-59 = 93% Runs: 4-6 = 94% Cheltenham run: Yes = 87% Grade: 1 or 2 = 80% OR: S.D 145+ Mean 152+ Season RPR: S.D 160+ Mean 164+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-8 IRE 5-7 FR Significant Stats: Season RPR 160+ High 164+ Winner analysis: Four horse meet the significant stat, however only one meets the high RPR which is Chantry House (7/4) and he comes out best on the generals as well. Step up in trip should suit on this flatter track and he should take all of the beating. The others that meet the significant stat are Sporting John (12/1) whose jumping has let him down, Fiddlerontheroof (6/1) who ran well behind Monkfish at Cheltenham and E D Romay (11/2) although I have reservations about him on this going. C House and Fiddler EW for me.

Win Stats: Age: 5-7 = 94% 5-6 = 82% Days: 0-39 = 88% Runs: 2-5 = 94% OR: 128+ S.D 132+ Mean 141+ Season RPR: 133+ S.D 137+ Mean 148+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-9 IRE/GB Significant Stats: Runs 2-5 Winner analysis: The fav Dusart could be very good and too classy for this field but after an injury and a lay off I wouldn’t be rushing in to take 2/1, even more so for a horse with such little experience. The horses that meet the sig stat, and are the best on generals are Any News (11/2), For Pleasure (11/1) and Ajero (6/1).

Win Stats: Age: 5-9 = 100% Bred: IRE, GB = 94% Runs: 3+ = 94% OR: 124-145 S.D 127-141 Weight: 10-1 – 11-12 S.D 10-5 – 11-4 Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-9 IRE/GB Significant Stats: Distance 20/21f slight positive Winner analysis: Five horses meet the general stats and the significant stat and so far, I’ve backed Solwara One (7/1) EW. Novices also have a decent record in this race which bodes well. The other four are A D Nuit (25/1), Kateson (20/1), W T bridge (25/1) and Whatsupwithyou (14/1).

Win Stats: Age: 6-9 = 88% Bred: IRE, FR, = 88% Runs: 4-7 = 88% Distance: = 82% Days: 0-59 = 94% OR: 129-149 S.D. 131-142 Weight: 9-9 – 11-10 S.D = 10-1 – 11-3 Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-8 FR 7-9 IRE Significant Stats: No significant stats. Winner analysis: Whilst most of the other races Cheltenham form is important, this race appears to favour those who missed the Festival (7/10). Based upon the general stats, Frero Banbou (7/1), Editeur Du Gite (9/1), Gaelik Coast (12/1) and Jan Maat (22/1) come out best. Novices (the first 3 mentioned) have a good record in the race as does Henry De Bromhead (JM) so all need looking at closely.

Win Stats: Age: 5-9 = 100% 5-8 = 94% Runs: 2-4 = 94% Days: 0-39 = 89% Grade: 1 = 100% (9 year’s of data only) OR: S.D = 154+ Mean = 162+ Season RPR: S.D = 162+ Mean = 166+ Cheltenham Run: Yes = 78% Cross Tab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR 6-9 IRE/GB Significant Stats: Season RPR 166+ Positive correlation between position, bred (IRE), SRPR (166+) and grade (1). Winner analysis: No horse meets the significant stat which suggests that there are no stand out horses in the field. Silver Streak (12/1) has the best general profile however I have him down as a very doubtful stayer, next best is Abacadabras (4/1) who also has to prove he stays this far. I do expect him to travel nicely into the race and he may be one to back on the exchanges with the view to laying at least your stake off in running, well at least that’s what I’ll be doing!

Win Stats: Age: 7-11 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 2-5 = 89% Distance: = 94% Days: 21+ = 94% Grade: 1-2 = 94% OR: S.D = 159+ Mean = 166+ Season RPR: S.D = 163+ Mean = 171+ Cheltenham Run: Yes = 83% Significant Stats: Age 8+ Winner analysis: Native River (4/1) has the best profile however drying ground is a concern, however it will be interesting to see how much water they put on. Next best are Clan Des Obeaux (5/2) and Tiger Roll (4/1) and both will like the good ground.  

Win Stats: Runs: 2-7 = 100% Cheltenham run: Yes = 89% Days: 20+ = 94% Grade: 1 or 2 = 78% OR: S.D = 138+ Mean = 146+ Season RPR: S.D = 138+ Mean = 143+ Significant Stats: Grade 1 or 2 Runs 3+ Season RPR 143+ Correlation between position, Cheltenham run, runs (3+), grade (1-2) & season rpr (143+) Winner analysis: Adagio (2/1) meets the three significant stats and the correlation and brings strong Cheltenham form, indeed he is progressing with each run and has an excellent profile. Monmiral (5/6) also meets the three significant stats and this has been his main target for some time and I’d be astonished if the winner didn’t come from one of these. Dutching would yield around a 17% profit at current exchange prices if one won for those interested.    

Welcome to this year’s Aintree Festival significant horse racing stats. Like Cheltenham I will publish trends and stats for each race and highlight the key significant stats to pay close attention to. Win Stats: Age: 5-8 = 100% 6-8 = 91% Bred: IRE, FR = 91% Runs: 4-6 = 91% Cheltenham run: Yes = 91% Days: 20-39 = 91% Cheltenham Race: Arkle or Marsh Novices = 91% OR: S.D = 147+ Mean = 152+ Season RPR: S.D = 154+ Mean = 158+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 IRE Significant Stats: No significant stats Correlation between position and runs (4+) Winner analysis: No significant stats and most horses meet the correlation stat of 4+ runs, so I’ll be treading cautiously. This general goes to a horse who has ran at Cheltenham in either the Arkle or Marsh Novices Chase and Fusil Raffles (5/2) and Eldorado Allen (11/2) are the two horses that fit that profile. Fusil Raffles has slightly the better general stats profile.