Aintree Festival - Manifesto Novices' Chase

Welcome to this year’s Aintree Festival significant horse racing stats. Like Cheltenham I will publish trends and stats for each race and highlight the key significant stats to pay close attention to.


Win Stats:

Age: 5-8 = 100% 6-8 = 91%

Bred: IRE, FR = 91%

Runs: 4-6 = 91%

Cheltenham run: Yes = 91%

Days: 20-39 = 91%

Cheltenham Race: Arkle or Marsh Novices = 91%

OR: S.D = 147+ Mean = 152+

Season RPR: S.D = 154+ Mean = 158+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 IRE

Significant Stats:

No significant stats

Correlation between position and runs (4+)

Winner analysis:

No significant stats and most horses meet the correlation stat of 4+ runs, so I’ll be treading cautiously. This general goes to a horse who has ran at Cheltenham in either the Arkle or Marsh Novices Chase and Fusil Raffles (5/2) and Eldorado Allen (11/2) are the two horses that fit that profile. Fusil Raffles has slightly the better general stats profile.  


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