Cheltenham Gold Cup

EW Stats:

Age: 7-10 = 92%

Bred: IRE, FR = 88%

Runs: 1-5 = 98%  

Days: 21+ = 97%

OR: S.D = 159+ Mean = 168+

Best RPR: S.D = 164+ Mean = 172+

RPR Race: S.D = 168+ Mean = 174+ (within 5lbs)

EW Analysis:

Last years winner, Minella Indo (5/1) comes good at this time of the year, and I am in doubt he will be primed to his best in his attempt to win the Gold Cup again. He has the exact profile required and seems a fair EW bet. Protektorat (8/1) is another horse with a strong profile, I’m not convinced his form is up to this level however and he doesn’t tempt me, others may think differently. Two-time winner Al Boum Photo (10/1) has the same stats profile as the aforementioned, it is concerning that his stable wasn’t overly happy with him recently.

Win Stats:

Age: 7-9 = 95%

Bred: IRE, FR = 85%

Runs: 1-4 = 95%

LTO: 1-2 = 85%

Days: 21+ = 100%

Grade: 1-2 = 95% 1 = 85%

Festival Experience: = 90%

OR: S.D = 164+ Mean = 170+

Best RPR: S.D = 165+ Mean = 173+

RPR Race: S.D = 173+ Mean = 178+

Significant Stats:

Grade 1-2 High grade 1

RPR Race 173+ (within 5lbs so 168 best RPR min)

Days 40+ preference 60+

LTO 1-2

Winner analysis:

The four significant stats along with previous Festival experience are what I use to help narrow down the field. Ideally you want a horse who has hit at least an RPR of 168, won a grade 1 previously, a nice break, and has the experience of running at the Festival. A Plus Tard (7/2), Galvin (7/2) and Minella Indo all meet the high stats and have the best profiles. I personally think APT with a more patient ride will reverse form with Galvin, but I will be waiting until Friday to see what the ground is like and whether the stables horses are running well.

Do not discount Tornado Flyer (12/1), who meets all four sig stats and has a good-looking profile, the only negative is his OR is below the mean of the usual winner. Conflated (12/1) meets them all but has a few general stats to break, namely being the lack of Festival experience. ABP meets the sig stats but has the age stat against him and whilst I see him running well, I can’t see him winning. Finally, Protektorat meets them as well but does have an OR below the mean and SRPRs, as discussed, he isn’t for me. Really strong renewal in my eyes and a horse race to truly enjoy.

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