National Hunt Chase

10 years of data only.

Win Stats:

Age: 7-10 = 90%

Runs since Sept: 2-5 = 100%

Days: 21+ = 100%

Starting price: 14s or under

OR: S.D. = 142+ Mean = 147+

Season RPR: S.D = 139+ Mean = 148+

Significant Stats:

Days 40+

Winner analysis:

Not a huge amount to go and the data for other variables are weak. The sig stat is vital and suggests a horse who has had a nice break and has been laid out for the race is important. Gordon Elliott appears to follow this trend and Run Wild Fred (5/2) has had a nice lay off, plenty of chase experience which is important and has a lovely profile, he is a horse I’ve backed ante post.

Recently it has been prudent to focus on those horses around 16/14s and under as it very rarely goes to a rank outsider now. Stattler (11/4) has a good profile, a general negative however is his lack of chase experience, I would have preferred to have seen him over fences at least one more time. Vanillier (9/2) is another horse who has had a 40+ days in between races he also has the positive of a course win, when victorious in last year’s Albert Bartlett. He should appreciate the ground and trip and I think he will run a big race.

There is still doubt whether other horses will turn up here in other races so it will be a race I will review once the decs are announced.   

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