Stayers Hurdle

EW Stats:

Age: 5-11 = 100% 6-9 = 87%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98%

Runs: 2-5 = 92%

Days: 21+ = 95%

LTO: 1-4 = 95%

Grade: 1 or 2 = 90%

OR: S.D = 153+ Mean = 161+

Season RPR: S.D = 154+ Mean = 161+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-9 FR 6-11 IRE/GB

EW Analysis:

Flooring Porter was highlighted last year as a horse who had a good EW profile and so it proved! Nothing is standing out at a decent price this year with the only horses with strong EW profiles being those at the head of the market.

Win Stats:

Age: 6-9 = 100%

Bred: IRE, FR = 100%

Runs: 2-5 = 90%

Days: 21+ = 95%

Distance: = 80%

LTO: 1-2 = 85%

Grade: 1 or 2 = 100%

OR: S.D = 155+ Mean = 164+

Season RPR: S.D = 158+ Mean = 165+

Significant Stats:

OR 158+ High 164+

Season RPR 160+ High 166 +

Correlation between position, OR (164), SRPR (165), Bred (IRE, FR) and runs (2-4)

Winner analysis:

One fact I’ve noticed about this race is that younger horses have been doing well lately with 8/8 of the last winners aged 6-8, and 7/8 aged 6-7. Taking this into account, Champ & Paisley Park don’t appeal to me at all, despite meeting both sig stats. Flooring Porter (7/2) and Klassical Dream (4/1) meet both the sig stats and the correlation, and both have strong general profiles. My initial preference is for the younger horse based on the above and I fancy him to retain his title especially if the ground dries out.

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