Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2022

Based on 13 years of data.

EW Stats:

Age: 5-6 = 95%

Bred: IRE, FR = 90%

Runs: 2-4 = 92%

LTO: 1-2 = 90%

Days: 20+ = 92%

OR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 148+

RPR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 148+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5 FR 5-6 IRE

EW Analysis:

Away from the current front four in the market, the two Elliott horses, Mighty Potter (11/1) and Three Stripe Life (20/1) have good EW profiles, however unless the price is right on the day, I will avoid having an EW bet in this race.

 Win Stats:

Age: 5-7 = 100% 5-6 = 92%

Bred: IRE, FR = 92%

Runs: 2-4 = 92%

LTO: 1st = 85%

Grade: 1-listed = 92%

OR: S.D = 143+ Mean = 149+

RPR: S.D = 144+ Mean = 149+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR 6-7 IRE

Significant Stats:

RPR 145+ high sig 149+

OR 143+ high sig 149+

Winner analysis:

The yearly reminder that OR’s and RPRs need double checking when decs are made as they can change to what they are currently.

The Supreme has recently been won by those coming into the race with strong form and OR’s, with 7/8 of the previous winners rated 150+.

The two significant stats along with the age and breed of the horse are usually my starting point. If a 5 yr. old has met the two sig stats I prefer them to be FR bred, whilst 6-7 yr. olds IRE bred. Dysart Dynamo (5/2 NRNB) meets all three of those criteria and has the best general profile for the race so needs to be included in the shortlist and is a horse I've backed ante post for this and the Ballymore. He is a strong front runner who can lead from the outset and dictate his own pace, my only concern is that he is a free going sort who if taken on for the lead may go too fast. Constitution Hill (9/4 NRNB) hits the two sig stats and has won impressively both times this season and needs to be taken seriously. I’m not sure how strong the Grade 1 form is however, and GB bred is a minor negative, furthermore, I suspect you will get a bigger price on the day, so my advice is to wait. Sir Gerhard (2/1 NRNB) is another that meets both the sig stats and the age/bred stat and has the strongest form going into the race, whether he or DD turn up here is still up in the air, but which ever one does will go off fav in my opinion. Like DD, Sir Gerhard also has a strong general profile. Jonbon (9/2 NRNB) meets both the sig stats and has a strong general profile for the race, the two minor negatives are that his OR is just a little short of what is required in recent times and he is a FR bred 6-year-old. The stable also appear concerned about his ability to handle the atmosphere on the day which may mean he will drift on the day. Last year’s top bumper performer Kilcruit (7/1) showed improved hurdles form LTO, and Mullins appears to have trained him for the Festivals so shouldn’t be discounted, he does however lack a good enough OR and RPR over hurdles to win this. Best of the rest is Mighty Potter, however I suspect the best he will be looking for is a place and he doesn’t have the profile of a Supreme winner.