Significant Horse Racing Stats

Day 1. Supreme Novices' - As the Tuesday update stated, Marine Nationale once given his official BHA rating was the joint best horse on general stats and the sig stat. I personally didn't back him; however, it is always pleasing to see the sig stat and the generals being upheld.   Arkle - A race that went exactly how the sig stats suggested with the fav El Fabiolo winning impressively. A good result personally and for the sig stats. Ultima Handicap - A case of what might have been. Having been keen on Monbeg Genius when the initial entries came out and steadily backing him, I thought coming to the last he may have won. I was left rueing the fact he was given an additional 3lb and upped to from 137 to 140 due to a collateral form boost, perhaps that was the difference. Oscar Elite ran well and got some place money finishing 5th while the EW analysis highlighted the winner, Corach Rambler as a solid EW bet. Champion Hurdle - The sig stats and general stats suggested it w...

Win Stats: Age: 5-7 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR = 91% Runs: 2-5 = 91% Days: 20-59 = 91% LTO: 1-6 = 100% Season:  Novice or 2 nd  = 91% OR: 135-145 S.D 137-145 Weight: S.D 11-3 – 11-9 Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR 6-7 IRE Significant Stats: OR 137+ Pref 140+ Weight 11-3+ LTO 1-4 Winner analysis: Four horses meet the sig stats and the generals, Cool Survivor (5/1), Imagine (11/2), Mark Of Gold (25/1) and Iroko (8/1).  I did look at the EW stats as well and these horses all fit that profile alongside Spirit Of Legend (25/1) who does look interesting especially with enhanced places.   Once again, that concludes all of the stats for this years Festival. Hopefully you found plenty of winners using them. 

Win Stats: Age: 7-11 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR = 100% Runs: 1-4 = 100% Days: 20-59 = 100% Distance: 24f+ = 82% OR: Mean 137+ SP: 14s and under Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Famous Clermont (7/1), Billaway (8/1), Chris's Dream (9/1) and Secret Investor (18/1) have the best profiles. I'll be looking to back a couple of them EW to add to my ante post bets. 

Win Stats: Age: 5-8 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 92% Runs: 2-4 = 80% Days: 40+ = 80% Season: Novice/2nd = 86% LTO: 1-3 = 90% OR: 129-158 S.D 132-148 Weight: S.D 10-5 – 11-6 Significant Stats: LTO 1-3 Winner analysis: I tend to focus on Novices or 2nd season hurdlers with plenty of improvement still to come with a good run LTO. Pinkerton (28/1), Path D'oroux (20/1), Magnor Glory (12/1), Pembroke (8/1) and Gin Coco (8/1) meet the sig stat and the generals and it is these I will be focussing on. 

Win Stats: Age: 7-10 = 90% 7-8 = 80% Runs: 2-6 = 100% LTO: = Not a winner = 90% Days: 20+ = 90% OR: S.D 134-143 Weight: 10-12 – 11-11 Season: Novice/2nd season = 90% Significant Stats: Novice or 2nd season chaser Winner analysis: Using the sig stat and the generals gives us a shortlist of Dunboyne (10/1), Slipway (28/1), Lord Accord (28/1), and Fountain Collonges (33/1)

EW Stats: Age: 6-10 = 97% Bred: IRE, FR, = 94% Runs: 1-6 = 94% Distance: = 88% Days: 20+ = 91% OR: 128-156 S.D 136-150 Weight: 10-6 – 11-5 HOR: 136+ EW analysis: Il Ridoto (15/2), Seddon (20/1), Marvel De Cerisy (25/1), and Champagne Gold (25/1) all meet the EW stats.  Win Stats: Age: 6-9 = 91% Bred: IRE, FR, = 91% Runs: 1-5 = 91% Distance: = 100% Days: 20+ = 100% OR: 136-149 S.D 138-146 Weight: 10-7 – 11-2 Hurdles OR: 134+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-7 FR 6-9 IRE Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Marcel De Cerisy and Champagne Gold have the best profiles closely followed by So Scottish (4/1). I've not got a strong view on the race and again, I'll wait until the day and check the going etc. 

Win Stats: Age: 5-9 = 92% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 2-6 = 85% OR: 133-152 S.D 137-147 Weight: 10-1 – 11-12 S.D 10-6 – 11-9 Avoid winners of a Pertemps qual = 92% Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-8 FR 6-10 IRE/GB Significant Stats: No significant stats Winner analysis: The complexion of this race appears different this year and that may be down to the new qualifying rules as some of those at the bottom of handicap would not normally have got into the race.  Based on the general stats, Salvador Ziggy (11/1), The Bosses Oscar (10/1), Good Time Jonny (10/1), Wakool (33/1), Captain Morgs (14/1) and An Tailleur (11/1) have the best profiles. I'll be going through each horse in more detail and seeing if the forecast rain arrives. 

EW Stats: Age: 6-9 = 82%  Runs: 2-5 = 91%  Days: 21+ = 100% Distance: = 100% Bred: IR, FR, GB = 97% OR: 136-155 S.D 140-150 Weight: 10-2 – 11-11 S.D 10-10 – 11-7 Hurdles OR: Min 126+ EW analysis: Eight horses meet the EW stats. Onto the win stats... Win Stats: Age: 6-9 = 82%  Runs: 2-5 = 91% Days: 21+ = 100% Distance: = 100% OR: 136-152 S.D 138-149 Weight: 10-2 – 11-8 S.D 10-8 – 11-7 Hurdles OR: Mean 130+ Cross Tab: Age/Bred FR 6-7 Other 7-10 Significant Stats: No significant stats Winner analysis: Again, eight horses meet the general stats so I've applied some other minor stats and that narrows it down to Dinoblue (11/2), Thyme White (16/1), Call Me Lyreen (25/1) and Midnight Run (25/1). I don't think I will be going overboard on this race.  

Win Stats: Age: 8-11 = 86% Bred: IRE, FR = 86% Runs: 2-4 = 100% Days: 21+ = 100% LTO: 1-6 = 86% OR: S.D. 146+ Mean 154+ Banks Experience: 86% Significant Stats: Age 8-11 Winner analysis: Only a limited number of stats available since the change from a handicap. Delta Work (5/4) has the best profile closely followed by the next two in the market, Galvin (9/4) and Franco De Port (8/1). Might play a tri-cast for interest.  

EW Stats: Age: 5-10 = 97% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 97% Runs: 1-6 = 95% Days: 21+ = 95% Season: Avoid novices = 97% OR: 135-153 S.D 138-150 Weight: 10-2 – 11-12 S.D 10-9 – 11-7 Season RPR: S.D 135-166 Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-8 FR 5-10 IRE/GB EW analysis: Just the shortlist of 12 when applying the above! This just shows how competitive and what a trappy race for punters the Coral Cup is.  Win Stats: Age: 5-8 – 92% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 1+ = 100% Days: 21+ = 100% Season: Avoid novices = 92% OR: 135-153 S.D 139-150 Weight: 10-2 – 11-10 S.D 10-8 – 11-8 Season RPR: S.D 137-156 Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 5-8 IRE/GB Significant Stats: No significant stats and nothing came close.  Winner analysis: When applying the above stats and some other stats I've used in the background, I have a shortlist of six horses. Run For Oscar (15/2), Icare Allen (25/1), Grand Roi (40/1), HMS Seahorse (9/1), Captain Conby (12/1) and Watch House Cross (20/1). Take enhanced places and shop around for the bes...

Supreme Novices' - Now Marine Nationale has been given an official OR of 150 he has the joint best profile in the race so if people fancy him, I wouldn't put you off backing him. Surprise declaration for Inthepocket and he too meets the sig stat but does miss a few general stats. Dark Raven has also been declared for this race, and I can see him out running his odds and will like the forecast soft going.  Arkle - No late surprises here and nothing more to add.  Champion Hurdle - again nothing further to add, I'm just disappointed there aren't eight runners for an EW bet on I Like To Move It. Mares Hurdle - Cracking race ahead and it is good to see Maries Rock declared for this in a bid for back-to-back victories.  NHC - Churchstonewarrior not declared but other than that, no further update. Handicaps - as they were when published.  That is Day 1 stats complete and all on the blog. Whoever you back, good luck and I hope you have a great day.

EW Stats: Age: 7-10 = 93% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98% Runs: 1-4 = 90%   Days: 21+ = 98% LTO: 1-6 = 90% Grade LTO: 1-3 = 94% OR: S.D = 159+ Mean = 168+ Best RPR: S.D = 164+ Mean = 172+ RPR Race: S.D = 168+ Mean = 174+ (within 5lbs) EW Analysis : Bravemansgame (13/2), Protektorat (16/1) and Minella Indo (22/1) have the strongest profiles. The latter doesn't appeal to me as his better days look to be behind him, but the two GB trained horses do appeal as EW bets. I'll see what enhanced place offers there are on the day. Win Stats: Age: 7-9 = 95% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 95% Runs: 1-4 = 95% LTO: 1-6 = 100% 1-2 = 85% Days: 21+ = 100% Grade: 1-2 = 95% 1 = 90% Grade LTO: 1-3 = 91% Festival Experience: = 90% OR: S.D = 164+ Mean = 171+ Best RPR: S.D = 166+ Mean = 174+ RPR Race: S.D = 173+ Mean = 178+ Significant Stats: Grade 1 RPR 172+ Days 21-40 or 60+ (a decent break is often a positive) Positive correlation between Pos - RPR (172) and grade 1 Winner analysis: Three significant stats and a co...

EW Stats: Age: 5-8 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98% Runs: 2-6 = 98% LTO: 1-5 = 96% Days: 20+ = 96% Distance: 19f-24f = 96% OR: S.D = 137+ Mean = 143+ RPR: S.D = 138+ Mean = 144+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR 5-8 IRE/GB EW Analysis : I will need to double check the OR's once published for this race, but so far Embassy Gardens (7/1), Three Card Brag (9/2) and Dawn Rising (20/1) have good EW profiles. Dawn Rising is interesting at the price as I think he will benefit from the step up in trip and has some classy flat form as well. Win Stats: Age: 5-8 – 100% Bred: IRE, FR = 89% Runs: 2-7 = 100% 3-4 = 89% LTO: 1-3 = 89% Days: 21+ = 100% Distance: 19f-24f = 94% OR: S.D = 139+ Mean = 145+ RPR: S.D = 140+ Mean = 147+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 IRE/GB Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: A really tough race for punters and there has been a few big priced winners in the past. The stats are also tight and quite a few horses have closely matched profiles. The best are Embassy Gardens, ...

EW Stats: Season hurdle runs: 1-4 = 90% Career hurdle runs: 1-6 = 97% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 97% LTO: 1-4 = 97% Days: 21+ = 93% OR: S.D = 140+ Mean = 145+ Season RPR: S.D = 132+ Mean = 139+ If Flat bred OR rating: Mean 84+ EW Analysis : Away from the front two, Gala Marceau (9/2) has by far the best profile and looks to have strong place claims.  Win Stats: Career hurdle runs: 1-5 = 100% Season hurdle runs: 1-3 = 90% LTO: 1-2 = 90% Days: 0-60 = 100% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 90% OR: S.D = 142+ Mean = 148+ Season RPR: S.D = 132+ Mean = 140+ Flat rating: Mean = 90+ Significant Stats: Season hurdle runs 1-3 Career hurdle runs 1-4 Winner analysis: A variable that I've added this year to a few races is grade LTO, and 9/10 of the last Triumph Hurdle winners all ran in grade 1-2 LTO which goes against Blood Destiny (7/4), he does however meet both sig stats. Indeed a number of horses meet the sig stats, however, on general stats the two mares, Lossiemouth (7/4) and Gala Marceau have the best loo...

E W Stats: Bred: IRE, FR = 86% Runs: 0-4 = 93% Days: 21+ = 93% Hurdle wins: 0-2 = 97% 1-2 = 83% LTO: 1-6 = 90% OR: 124-139 S.D 128-137 Weight: S.D = 10-11 – 11-6 Best RPR:  S.D. 120-135 EW Analysis: Tekao (9/2) and Byker (6/1) have the best EW profiles closely followed by Sir Allen (12/1). Win Stats: Bred: IRE, FR = 90% Runs: 1-4 = 100%  Days: 21+ = 90% 21-60 = 80% Hurdle wins: 1-2 = 90% OR: 125-139 S.D 128-137 Weight: S.D = 10-10 – 11-8 Best SRPR:  120-140 Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: This hasn't been a great race for stats in all honesty. The same two horses that meet the EW stats also meet the win stats. Quite a few bookies going 6 places so shop around. 

EW Stats: Age: 6-9 = 94% Bred: IRE, GB, FR = 100% Runs: 2-6 = 92% Days: 20+ = 90% OR: 129-155 S.D 137-149 Weight: S.D = 10-5 – 11-6 RPR Race:  147 - 158 Cross tab Age/Bred: FR 6-9 IRE/GB 7-9 EW analysis: Tea Clipper (20/1), Into Overdrive (15/2), Corach Rambler (7/1), Nassalam (8/1) and Karl Phillipe (40/1) all meet the EW stats. Tea Clipper should run a solid enough race providing the ground isn't to soft while last years winner should also go close.   Win Stats: Age: 6-11 = 100% 7-9 – 80% Bred: IRE = 88% Runs: 2-5 = 94% LTO: 1-5 = 88% Days: 0-59 = 88% Distance: 24f+ = 88% OR: 129-155 S.D 136-149 Weight: S.D = 10-4 – 11-6 RPR Race:  142+ Significant Stats: Days 0-59 Winner analysis: A number of horses meet the sig stat however two horses also stand out on general stats, Monbeg Genius (14/1) and Oscar Elite (11/1). Monbeg Genius appears to be a horse still on the upgrade and Oscar Elite ran well in this race last year. Happy to back both EW alongside Tea Cl...

EW Stats: Age: 6-9 = 85% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98% Runs: 2-5 = 92% Days: 21+ = 97% LTO: 1-4 = 95% Grade: 1 or 2 = 92% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 91% Distance: 19f+ = 100% Left handed win: = 94% OR: S.D = 154+ Mean = 161+ Season RPR: S.D = 155+ Mean = 161+ EW Analysis : Teehupoo (4/1) has the best profile, followed by Home By The Lee (6/1) and Flooring Porter (6/1). Win Stats: Age: 6-9 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 2-5 = 90% Days: 21+ = 100% Distance: = 85% Distance: 20f+ = 91% LTO: 1-2 = 85% Grade: 1 or 2 = 100% Left handed win: 100% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 91% OR: S.D = 156+ Mean = 164+ Season RPR: S.D = 159+ Mean = 166+ Significant Stats: OR 159+ High 164+ Season RPR 159+ High 165 + Bred IRE/FR Correlation between position, OR (164), SRPR (165), Bred (IRE, FR) and runs (2-4) Winner analysis: No horse meets all three sig stats but quite a few meet two. Blazing Khal (3/1), Maries Rock (4/1), Teehupoo, Flooring Porter, Klassical Dream (10/1) and the veteran Paisley Park (14/1). Teehupoo has the be...

EW Stats: Age: 6-10 = 98%  Bred: IRE, FR= 92% Runs: 1-6 = 100%  Distance: = 92% Days: 21+ = 94% LTO: 1-5 = 88% Chase wins season: 0-2 = 91% Grade LTO: 1-3 = 100% 1-2 = 88% Placed at previous festival: = 85% OR: S.D = 157+ Mean = 163+ Season RPR: S.D = 162+ Mean = 167+ Best RPR: S.D = 162+ Mean 167+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-10 FR 7-10 IRE EW Analysis : Blue Lord (5/1) ticks every box and should run his race and 5/1 seems reasonable in a race that could cut up. Next best is Janidil (7/1) who did place in this last year, however he doesn't appeal to me.   Win Stats: Age: 7-10 = 94% Bred: IRE, FR = 88% Runs: 2-4 = 100% Course winner: = 82% Days: 21+ = 100% Distance: = 100% Chase wins season: 0-3 = 100% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 100% Placed at previous festival: = 82% OR: S.D = 159+ Mean = 165+ Season RPR: S.D = 143+ Mean = 170+ Best RPR: S.D = 167+ Mean = 172+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 7-9 FR 7-10 IRE Significant Stats: OR 162+ High 166+ Season RPR 165+ High 170 + Best RPR 167+ Course winne...