Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

EW Stats:

Age: 5-8 = 100%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98%

Runs: 2-6 = 98%

LTO: 1-5 = 96%

Days: 20+ = 96%

Distance: 19f-24f = 96%

OR: S.D = 137+ Mean = 143+

RPR: S.D = 138+ Mean = 144+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR 5-8 IRE/GB

EW Analysis:

I will need to double check the OR's once published for this race, but so far Embassy Gardens (7/1), Three Card Brag (9/2) and Dawn Rising (20/1) have good EW profiles. Dawn Rising is interesting at the price as I think he will benefit from the step up in trip and has some classy flat form as well.

Win Stats:

Age: 5-8 – 100%

Bred: IRE, FR = 89%

Runs: 2-7 = 100% 3-4 = 89%

LTO: 1-3 = 89%

Days: 21+ = 100%

Distance: 19f-24f = 94%

OR: S.D = 139+ Mean = 145+

RPR: S.D = 140+ Mean = 147+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 IRE/GB

Significant Stats:

No sig stats

Winner analysis:

A really tough race for punters and there has been a few big priced winners in the past. The stats are also tight and quite a few horses have closely matched profiles. The best are Embassy Gardens, Three Card Brag, Dawn Rising, Hiddenvally Lake (8/1), Corbetts Cross (4/1) and Favori De Champdou (10/1). I really don't have a strong opinion about any of them at the moment so I'll be waiting for the decs and the final BHA OR's. 

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