Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase

EW Stats:

Age: 5-8 = 98%

Distance: = 98%

Runs: 2-5 = 88%

LTO: 1-3 = 93%

Days: 21+ = 95%

Chase wins: 1-4 = 100%

Won left handed: = 85%

OR: S.D = 145+ Mean = 152+

RPR: S.D = 150+ Mean = 158+

Hurdles OR: S.D. 133+ Mean 145+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 Other

EW Analysis:

Away from the front two, Dysart Dynamo (9/2) has the best EW profile and this track and slightly shorter trip may suit him better than at Leopardstown last time out.

Win Stats:

Age: 5-8 = 100%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% 

Distance: = 95%

Runs: 2-4 = 90% 3-4 = 85%

Days: 21+ = 95%

Chase wins: 1-4 = 100%

Left handed win: 91%

LTO: 1-2 = 95% 1st = 85%

Grade 1 or 2 = 75%

OR: S.D = 148+ Mean = 157+

RPR: S.D = 156+ Mean = 165+

Hurdles OR: S.D = 143+ Mean = 152+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 IRE/GB

Significant Stats:

RPR 156+ high 162+

HOR 145+ high 152+

OR 151+ high 157+

Chase wins 2-4

Course winner (treat with caution still)

LTO 1-2 high 1st

Positive correlation between position, OR (157+), RPR (162+), HOR (152+) & chase wins (2-4)

Winner analysis:

The Arkle has generally been a strong trends/stats race and last year was no different. Ignoring the course sig stat leaves us with 5 sig stats and a strong correlation. 

Jonbon (13/8) has the strongest general profile and meets all of the sig stats and the correlation and should obviously go close. El Fabiolo (13/8) also meets 5 sig stats however does not meet the correlation with fewer chase wins and a slightly lower HOR. He did look very impressive LTO coming off a strong pace which should be set again by Dysart Dynamo and like Jonbon has strong claims. If Banbridge (10/1) came here instead of the Turners i'd take a second look as he also meets 5 sig stats and is a course winner. 

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