Significant Horse Racing Stats

An outstanding week in terms of the racing and punting. Some lovely ante post bets landed, on top of the significant stats helping to find more winners. Tuesday: There were 14 sig stats on Tuesday and 13 were upheld, the only one not upheld was in the Arkle with the winner not being LTO 1-2. The sig stats helped narrow down the fields and Slade Steel, State Man, Lossiemouth and Corbetts Cross were all highlighted in terms of meeting them. Gaelic Warrior was highlighted as meeting 4/5. Away from the sig stats on Tuesday, the general stats pointed to Chianti Classico and Irish Point with the former winning nicely and the latter running a fine race to be second in the Champion Hurdle. Wednesday: 7/11 sig stats were upheld with the Champion Chase being the race which let them down with Captain Guinness's win. Away from that, Ballyburn, Fact to File, Langer Dan and Sa Fureur EW were all highlighted as having strong profiles.  Thursday: 10/12 sig stats were met on what is usually a tough...

Win Stats: Age: 5-7 = 100% 5-6 = 83% Bred: IRE, FR = 92% Runs: 2-5 = 92% Days: 20+ = 100% LTO: 1-6 = 100% Season:  Novice or 2 nd  = 92% OR: 135-145 S.D 137-144 Weight: S.D 11-3 – 11-9 Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR 6-7 IRE Significant Stats: OR 137+  Weight 11-2+ LTO 1-4 Winner analysis: Using the sig stats and the general stats narrows the field down to four horses. Quai De Bourbon (7/2) who I have backed ante post, Better Days Ahead (10/1), Whats Up Darling (16/1) and Yeats Star (20/1). Two other horses meet the sig stats and worth considering are Answer To Kayf (9/1) and No Ordinary Joe (9/1). Once again that is it for this year. I hope you have found plenty of winners using the significant stats. Aintree up next.

Win Stats: Age: 7-11 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR = 100% Hunter Chase Runs: 1-4 = 100% Days: 20-59 = 100% OR: Mean 136+ Significant Stats: No significant stats. Winner analysis: A poor race for stats due to the fact data is limited. Top three in the market all have obvious chances, Ferns Lock (11/4), Its On The Line (9/4) and Premier Magic (13/2). PM won this last year and has strong Cheltenham form so looks a fair EW play.

Win Stats: Age: 5-8 = 100% Runs: 2-4 = 82% Season: 1-3 = 91% LTO: 1-3 = 82% OR: 129-158 S.D 132-147 Weight: S.D 10-5 – 11-6 Significant Stats: OR 147 and under High 139 and under Correlation with Position & LTO (1-3) Winner analysis: Dan Skelton has already won a couple of handicaps this week and has a strong hand here. L’Eau Du Sud (11/2) and Faivoir (16/1) meet the sig stat and the general stats, and I have backed EW. Others to meet the sig stat are Wesport Cove (20/1) and Petit Tonnerre (28/1) and I am going to go through their form. 

Win Stats: Age: 7-10 = 90% 7-8 = 82% Runs: 2-6 = 100% LTO: = Not a LTO winner = 91% Days: 20+ = 91% OR: S.D 135-142 Weight: S.D. 11–11-8 Season: Novice/2nd season = 91% Significant Stats: Novice or 2nd season chaser Winner analysis: The sig stat helps narrow down the field and when applying the general stats Cool Survivor (8/1), Amirite (12/1), Chavez (25/1) and City Chief (28/1) have excellent profiles. Personally, I won’t be touching City Chief with Hendersons form, so I’ll be playing the others EW.

Win Stats: Age: 6-9 = 83% Bred: IRE, FR, = 92% Runs: 1-5 = 92% Distance: = 100% Days: 20+ = 92% OR: 136-149 S.D 138-146 Weight: 10-7 – 11-2 Hurdles OR: 125+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-7 FR 6-9 IRE Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: No sig stats and limited general stats to work with. Crebilly (4/1), Riann (20/1), Theatre Man (9/2) and Fighter Allen (40/1) have the strongest profiles. Small betting race for me.

Win Stats: Age: 6-8 = 80% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 2-6 = 86% OR: 133-152 S.D 136-146 Weight: 10-1 – 11-12 S.D 10-6 – 11-9 Qualifying rating: 131-145 Avoid winners of a Pertemps qual = 93% Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-8 FR 6-10 IRE/GB Significant Stats: No significant stats Winner analysis: This is a poor stats race in truth so I would not over rely on them. Cleatus Poolaw (15/2), Icare Allen (10/1), Springwell Bay (16/1), Gowel Road (28/1), Monmiral (28/1), Priarie Dancer (33/1), Anna Bunina (40/1) and Bold Endeavour (40/1) meet the general stats. CP could be well treated, and IA has been kept fresh with this his season aim, whether he stays in this ground is the nagging doubt. Anna Bunina is interesting, and I could see her placing. SkyBet go 8 places.

EW Stats: Age: 6-11 = 94%  Runs: 2-5 = 92%  Days: 21+ = 100% Distance: = 100% Bred: IR, FR = 86% OR: 136-155 S.D 139-150 Weight: 10-2 – 11-11 S.D 10-10 – 11-7 Hurdles OR: Min 126+ EW analysis: Solness (16/1), Calico (20/1), Sa Fureur (9/1) and Harpers Brook (9/1) meet the above stats. Win Stats: Age: 6-10 = 92% Bred: IRE, FR = 83%  Runs: 2-5 = 92% Days: 21+ = 100% Distance: = 100% OR: 136-152 S.D 138-149 Weight: 10-2 – 11-8 S.D 10-9 – 11-7 Hurdles OR: Mean 129+ Cross Tab: Age/Bred FR 6-7 Other 7-10 Significant Stats: Avoid LTO winners. Winner analysis: Sa Fureur has the best-looking profile and meets the sig stat and I have backed EW.

EW Stats: Age: 5-10 = 98% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98% IRE/FR = 86% Runs: 1-6 = 95% Days: 21+ = 95% Season: Avoid novices = 98% OR: 135-155 S.D 138-150 Weight: 10-2 – 11-12 S.D 10-9 – 11-7 Season RPR: S.D 137-166 Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 5-10 IRE/GB EW analysis: Surprisingly not that many are on the shortlist this year. Guard Your Dreams (25/1) has a solid looking profile but is pretty exposed, but the interesting horse who meets the stats is De Capo Glory (33/1) who has a very capable claimer on and has some good form to his name. I have taken the 33s EW. Win Stats: Age: 5-8 – 93% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE/FR = 86% Runs: 1-4 = 86% Days: 21+ = 100% Season: Avoid novices = 93% OR: 135-153 S.D 139-150 Weight: 10-2 – 11-10 S.D 10-9 – 11-8 Season RPR: 137-156 S.D 139-156 Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 7-9 IRE/GB Significant Stats: No significant stats.  Winner analysis: Previous winner Langer Dan (8/1) has clearly been targeted at this all ye...

EW Stats: Age: 7-10 = 93% Bred: IRE, FR = 93% Runs: 1-5 = 98%   Days: 21+ = 98% LTO: 1-6 = 88% Grade LTO: 1-3 = 94% Festival Experience: = 80% OR: S.D = 159+ Mean = 168+ Best RPR: S.D = 165+ Mean = 173+ RPR Race: S.D = 168+ Mean = 174+ (within 5lbs) EW Analysis : The Gold Cup has always been a strong stats race and long may that continue. Fastorslow (5/1), Shiskin (7/1), Hewick (16/1), L’Homme Presse (16/1) and Bravemansgame (18/1) have excellent EW profiles. If the ground remains soft throughout the week L’Homme Presse could run a big race, whilst it would hinder Hewicks chances. Win Stats: Age: 7-9 = 95% Bred: IRE, FR = 85% Runs: 1-4 = 95% LTO: 1-6 = 100% 1-2 = 85% Days: 21+ = 100% Grade: 1 = 90% Grade LTO: 1-3 = 92% Festival Experience: = 90% Distance: 24f+ = 75% OR: S.D = 164+ Mean = 171+ Best RPR: S.D = 166+ Mean = 174+ RPR Race: S.D = 173+ Mean = 178+ Significant Stats: Grade 1 RPR 167+ Days 20+ (a decent break of...

EW Stats: Age: 5-8 = 100% 5-7 = 90% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98% Runs: 2-5 = 93% LTO: 1-3 = 86% Days: 20+ = 97% Distance: 19f-24f = 97% OR: S.D = 137+ Mean = 143+ RPR: S.D = 137+ Mean = 144+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR 5-8 IRE/GB EW Analysis : Willie Mullins dominates the betting and he has horses with outstanding claims. Readin Tommy Wrong (5/1), Dancing City (7/1), High Class Hero (7/1(, Lecky Watson (12/1) and Mercurey (40/1) all have excellent profiles for the race. Win Stats: Age: 5-7 = 95% 6-7 = 84% Bred: IRE, FR = 90% Runs: 2-4 = 95% LTO: 1-3 = 90% Days: 21+ = 100% Distance: 19f-24f = 91% OR: S.D = 138+ Mean = 144+ RPR: S.D = 140+ Mean = 146+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-7 IRE/GB Significant Stats: Course winner minor Winner analysis: Obviously, it is worth looking at the two course winners, Gidleigh Park (8/1) and Shanagh Bob (10/1) due to meeing the sig stat, however both fall well short on the general stats. All of the Mullins horses ...